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C-51 West Sub-basin: Updated Analysis of Flow and Phosphorus Data

C-51 West Sub-basin: Updated Analysis of Flow and Phosphorus Data. Kathleen Pietro Gary Goforth. C-51 West Sub-basin. Overview. C-51 West Sub-basin is 75 square miles Sparse data (n=14) available for 1994 Conceptual Plan estimates Project Purpose:

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C-51 West Sub-basin: Updated Analysis of Flow and Phosphorus Data

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  1. C-51 West Sub-basin: Updated Analysis of Flow and Phosphorus Data Kathleen Pietro Gary Goforth

  2. C-51 West Sub-basin

  3. Overview • C-51 West Sub-basin is 75 square miles • Sparse data (n=14) available for 1994 Conceptual Plan estimates • Project Purpose: • Update relationship between Flow and TP outflow for updated performance projections • Apply estimate to 31-year baseline dataset for comparison to Long-Term Plan

  4. Regression Analysis • Used flow and TP data from S-5AE and SR7 sites • Calibration period: 8/97 – 7/01 • Grab TP used if flow • Regression Parameters used: • Ln Flow • Sin/Cos • Smear Coefficient

  5. Note: Data under review.

  6. Regression Analysis Ln[TP (ppb)] = 3.736 + 0.158*Ln[flow(cfs)] + 0.064 *Sin(2*PI*day/365) - 0.128*Cos(2*PI*day/365) Smear coefficient = Sum (Exp (ln(P loads obs) – ln (P loads pred) ) / N

  7. Note: Data under review

  8. Final Steps • Analyze the influence of enhanced regression parameters • Temporal trend • Higher order flow terms • Constrain TP and Flow to POR maxima • Provide recommendation for updated performance projections

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