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  1. Paterson Financial Services Asset/Liability Management Chartbook 1Q 2006

  2. Hindsight • Bonds break major support • F-Funds go to 4.75% • Gold making new highs • Yield curve flat • Stocks make new highs • Middle-stage business cycle

  3. Foresight • Inflation is back • Bear market in bonds begins • Commodities and real estate will prosper • Economy will stay strong until Fed action takes hold • Stock market is booming

  4. Business Cycle – Nov 2001 • The economy is four years into the current cycle and likely has four more years to go. • At this stage in the cycle, interest rates and stock prices begin a sustained rise • Income, employment, production, sales and prices also rise • Yield curve begins to invert

  5. Business Cycle Indicators • Trough in 4Q of 2001 • Stock market bottoms 2003 • Current cycle over 48 months old • Last two cycles 92 and 120 months • 4 years to go in this cycle? See NBER

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