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Coincidental Pressures and Human Heuristics in NPT Test Gauge Confusion

The pressures of a riser during an NPT test, where both the mud and reservoir exert approximately 1,400 psi, created a scenario ripe for human error and heuristic assumptions. Crew members, faced with coincidental pressures nearly identical to those of the riser margin, were led to make decisions based on flawed heuristics. This situation underscores the need for improved design awareness in pressure monitoring systems to mitigate confusion and enhance safety in critical drilling operations. Could this be merely a bizarre coincidence, or a telltale sign of a deeper issue regarding data interpretation?

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Coincidental Pressures and Human Heuristics in NPT Test Gauge Confusion

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  1. Coincidental Pressures Led to Normal Human Heuristic and Error NPT Test Gauges TOO SIMILIAR to Riser Margin For Crew To Ignore

  2. Pressure of Riser Mud Pushing “DOWN” is ~1,400 psi Pressure of Reservoir Pushing “UP” is ~1,400 psi

  3. Coincidental Pressure Led to Normal Human Heuristic and Error • Bizarre Coincidence? OR • Mitigatable Confusion?

  4. Coincidental Pressure Led to Normal Human Heuristic and Error • A quick check of the numbers available to the engineer that designed the NPT would have shown how close these numbers were to one another and known that this would confuse the crew into thinking the “closing pressure” on the Annular “Bag” preventer needed to be increased because the mud above the “Bag” created a “Differential” very close to 1,400 psi

  5. Coincidental Pressure Led to Normal Human Heuristic and Error • Heuristic/hjʉˈrɪstɨk/; Greek: "Εὑρίσκω", "find" or "discover") refers to where the exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution via mental shortcuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision.

  6. Coincidental Pressure Led to Normal Human Heuristic and Error • James Reason and other experts say the way to establish “Fault” is to use the “Substitution Test”. Basicly ask if any other worker in the same situation ‘might’ have come to the same conclusion. The answer is an emphatic, Yes! • Everyone on the rig came to exactly the same conclusion. The heuristic. The pressure was very close to the expected riser margin and thus the bladder effect WAS the heuristic.

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