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Welcome, introduction and prospects

Welcome, introduction and prospects. Ian Shuttleworth Director of NILS-RSU www.nils-rsu.census.ac.uk Twitter: #NILS2011. Structure of the day. The NILS and the NILS-RSU The 2011 Census Link in outline and projects using the 2011 data

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Welcome, introduction and prospects

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  1. Welcome, introduction and prospects Ian Shuttleworth Director of NILS-RSU www.nils-rsu.census.ac.uk Twitter: #NILS2011

  2. Structure of the day • The NILS and the NILS-RSU • The 2011 Census Link in outline and projects using the 2011 data • Four brief presentations, marriage, grief, health and housing, birth month and later outcomes • The wider context for the 2011 Link and the future • Five brief presentations on the UK LS context, synthetic data, the NI-ADRC, historical data and the NILS, and the future of the NILS NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  3. The NILS • Longitudinal database of people and their major life events based on existing data sources • Health card data linked to Census and administrative data • Sample members selected based on birth date • 104 birth dates • c.28% sample • c.500,000 people • Two similar record linkage studies are available (ONS-LS, SLS) and the NILS works with these and CALLS • NIMS 2011: 100% sample • Death data linked to Census data NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  4. Funded by: NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  5. The NILS-RSU supports researchers by: supervising the safe environment; helping researchers make applications; promoting NILS-based research through seeking new users and policy engagement; building capacity NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  6. Using the 2011 Link • The NILS started with the 2001 Census and subsequent vital events and address changes • The 2011 Census link means that it is now possible to look at the transitions of people and places between 2001 and 2011 • Themes that can be considered include • Labour market transitions (economic status, occupation) • Housing transitions (tenure change and health) • Demographic transitions (health status, religion, marital status) NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  7. Using the 2011 Link • Other themes that can be researched include • Fertility • Mortality (NIMS) • Migration – internal and moves into and out of NI • The utility of the NILS will increase further by 2015 as by then the 1981 and 1991 Censuses will be linked to the NILS – 4 Censuses and 30 years of data • These will mean that long-term social and demographic change can be described and analysed NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  8. Using the 2011 Link • Thus a major research resource which has taken time and money to develop • Challenge is therefore to capitalise on this to influence academic debates, policy debates and the public inside and outside Northern Ireland • Value will increase further if, as seems likely, there is a 2021 Census • Now…more on the 2011 Link and research that has already been done using it… NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  9. The 2011 Link Catherine McLoughlin NILS-RSU

  10. Overview • Development of the Census 2011 Link • UK Longitudinal Studies • NILS Datasets • NILS Samples for Analysis • NILS 2011 Linkage • Supporting Documentation • New Questions in the 2011 Census NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  11. Development of the Census 2011 Link (1) • Business Case Started 2010 • Approved by NILS Steering Group 2011 • Funded by Census Office • Development Started Summer 2011 • Assistance to Census Office NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  12. Development of the Census 2011 Link (2) • Alpha-Testing Phase Summer 2013 • Beta-Testing Phase September 2013 • Soft Launch 9th December 2013 • First Projects Approved January 2014 • UK Launch Event 6th March 2014 NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  13. NILS Datasets NIMS11 NIMS01 Health Data 26 Downloads Apr 2001 – Oct 2013 NILS Births 1997-2012 Deaths 2011-2012 Deaths 2001-2011 Partial 1991 Census Births to NILS Mothers 1997-2012 Census 2011 Census 2001 2001 Census Births to NILS Fathers 1997-2012 2011 Census Deaths 2001-2012 LPS Data NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  14. NILS Samples for Analysis 1991 2001 2011 NILS Members 504,800 538,600 1 Census 285,600 452,600 477,800 280,900 2 Censuses 366,700 3 Censuses (so far) 225,100 105,500 Births of Babies 107,000 Births to Mums 94,800 Births to Dads 47,100 Deaths Vital Events 566,400 Address Changes Migration Events NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  15. NILS 2011 Linkage • Link Health Registration data to Census data - List Inflation Rate - Person Imputation • High match rate 96.7% • Consistent with 2001 rate • Forward and Backward rates consistent with ONS LS and SLS NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  16. Supporting Documentation • NILS Data Dictionary • Metadata Document • Searchable Data Dictionary • Census 2011 Variables Overview • Working Papers • Imputation Rates Paper NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  17. New Questions in the 2011 Census NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  18. Voluntary Work NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  19. Nature of Health Conditions NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  20. Passports Held and National Identity NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  21. New Questions in the 2011 Census • Housing Adaptations • Intention to stay in the UK • Lived outside Northern Ireland • Last country lived in • Date of most recent arrival in Northern Ireland • Main Language • English Proficiency • Knowledge of Ulster-Scots • Type of Central Heating NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  22. Contact Details @NILSRSU nils-rsu@qub.ac.uk www.nils-rsu.census.ac.uk NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  23. Does exogamy (mixed marriage by religion) increase the risk of marital dissolution in Northern Ireland? David M Wright , Michael Rosato, Dermot O’Reilly

  24. Maritaldissolution • Profound impacts on societal and individual wellbeing • Family history and values, age at marriage, children • Socioeconomic factors: employment status, education • Partner dissimilarity (e.g. by age, ethnicity, religion) NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  25. Marital dissolution in Northern Ireland • Is there variation in dissolution risk among religious groups? • Are mixed marriages at increased risk, especially those crossing the Catholic-Protestant boundary? • Does residential segregation affect dissolution risk for mixed marriages? NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  26. Residential segregation by religion NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  27. Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study – 2001- 2011 Census link • Married couples at the 2001 Census • Aged 16 – 74 • At least one NILS member • Both survived to 2011 Census • 115,465 couples, 23,803 dissolutions • Marital dissolution: no longer co-resident in 2011 • Logistic regression NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  28. Dissolution risk higher among younger and dissimilar couples 50 – 75 16 - 35 35 - 50 Sick, Unemployed No degree Rented NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014 NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  29. Variation among religious groups in risk of marital dissolution Mixed Non-mixed NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  30. Mixed marriages are rare and mixed couples are less likely to marry Mixed Non-mixed NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  31. Increase in proportion of Catholic-Protestant marriages Mixed Non-mixed NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  32. Risk of marital dissolution unrelated to residential segregation by religion NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  33. Summary • Increased risk of marital dissolution among less religious groups. • Mixed marriages had slightly higher risks of dissolution than non-mixed marriages. • Catholic-Protestant unions: • at no greater risk than other types of mixed marriage • rare • couples were more likely to cohabit • younger cohort • dissolution risk unrelated to residential segregation • Significant barriers to cross-community relationships remain but indications of increased mixing among the young. NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  34. Acknowledgements The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS. NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  35. The effect of social & economic transitions on children & young people Dr Aideen Maguire, Dr Mark McCann & Dr John Moriarty QUB

  36. Children in Transition • Importance of the early years • Children and young people are in constant change • All aspects of the environment are potential determinants of how children develop • Family environment and affluence are two key candidate factors that determine development • Gaining a better understanding of the effect that the social environment can have on children and young people is important for identifying ways to mitigate harmful influences NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  37. Outcomes of interest • 2011 Census questions on educational attainment- education a predictor of adult success- higher education = higher SES- increase social networks and opportunity • 2011 Census questions on mental health - mental ill health leading cause of disability- largest contributing factor to days of work lost- decreases social networks and lack of opportunity • Using two waves of NILS data from the 2001 and 2011 censuses, this project will assess how changes in affluence or family structure can influence educational and mental health outcomes for young people NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  38. Beta Test Questions • Do changes in household affluence affect children living in the household in terms of: • Academic achievement • Mental health • Do changes in household structure affect children living in the household in terms of: • Academic achievement • Mental health NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  39. Method • Health card registration data • NILS members selected based on 104 dates of birth • Identifies individuals • Identifies home address • And change of address at 21 time points between 2001 & 2011 • NILS cohort comprises c.28% of NI population • Cohort lives in c.50% of residential households in NI • Non cohort member Census returns provide household characteristics and characteristics of family structure NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  40. Datasets to be linked • Land and property services • The open market sale price of every property in Northern Ireland (as of 2005) • Census 2001 • Social/ private rented vs. owner occupier • Health & educational qualifications • Census 2011 • Social/ private rented vs. owner occupier • Health & Educational qualifications • Non-members 2001 & 2011- Relationships within Census household/household structure NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  41. NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  42. Results • 182,545 individuals, Under the age of 18 years & enumerated in both 2001 and 2011 Censuses • Mental ill health: 3,349 (2%) • No qualifications: 10,887 (13%) NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  43. Percentage with no qualifications by economic transitions NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  44. Percentage in poor mental health by economic transitions NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  45. Percentage in poor mental health by family transitions NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  46. Potential of New 1991 & 2011 link 1991 Census 2001 Census 2011 Census 1997 2008 address changes GRO Birth records EPD data Deaths 14 yrs 4 yrs 0 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs 0 yrs NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  47. Potential of New 1991 & 2011 link • Direction of effect • Does child health affect economic position or vice versa? • Reason for transition • Parental separation, parent death, job loss • Timing of transition • Critical developmental periods, economic downturn • Reason for effect • Parental mental health, family conflict, financial resource • Questions for SDAI Phase 2: • Families, Adolescents and Children in Transition NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  48. Acknowledgements “The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study/Northern Ireland Mortality Study (NILS/NIMS)and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS/NIMS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS.” NILS 2011 Census Launch - 5th June 2014

  49. Health, housing tenure & entrapment 2001-2011:Does changing tenure and address improve health? • Myles Gould (UoL) Email: m.i.gould@leeds.ac.uk Twitter: @Myles_Gould_UoL • Ian Shuttleworth (QUB) Email: i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk

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