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Supporting Evidence Policy Making and its monitoring

Supporting Evidence Policy Making and its monitoring

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Supporting Evidence Policy Making and its monitoring

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  1. Supporting Evidence Policy Making and its monitoring Overview of issues and approaches

  2. What is a POLICY?

  3. Many definitions due to complexity of the phenomenon. If you ask GOOGLE or BING: Decisions made by some entity which provide regulations or rules for particular activities and relations between players. The policies are valid till the rules are changed.

  4. Many definitions due to complexity of the phenomenon. Our contribution to the discussion: The process consisting of a sequence of decisions and implementation steps aimed at adjusting social and economic developments to ensure sustainable growth.

  5. The process consisting of a sequence of decisions and implementation steps aimed at adjusting social and economic developments to ensure sustainable growth “Development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Definition of Sustainability: UN General Assembly, Report of the World Commission of Environment and Development “Our Common Future” August 4, 1987.

  6. Examples of Policies (EU)

  7. Examples of Policies (EU) • Measures to facilitate industrial cooperation and migration of firms • European company statute • Harmonization of industrial and commercial property laws • Removing restrictions (trade barriers, taxation, export regulations, etc) • Making restrictions (ecological, social, food safety) • The control of aid given by a member state to a firm or category of firms

  8. Target objects

  9. Society Economics Regions Countries In increasingly interconnected world

  10. Ultimately the Target is:A COMPLEX SOCIAL & ECONOMIC SYSTEM

  11. The target System and its components – subsystems

  12. Implementation modality • Regulatory, e.g. administrative regulations

  13. Implementation modality • Regulatory, e.g. administrative regulations • Changing legislation

  14. Implementation modality • Regulatory, e.g. administrative regulations • Changing legislation • Multilateral Agreements

  15. Focus of Analysis

  16. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of

  17. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis

  18. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis • Decision preparations

  19. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis • Decision preparations • Implementation monitoring

  20. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis • Decision preparations • Implementation monitoring • Evaluation and possible traceability of results talking with sustainable social, economic, environmental and industrial developments in countries

  21. Policy objectives Changing the Behavior of the System or its components

  22. Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

  23. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Validated models of the system representing its main behavior under changing controls (e.g. switched on by a new regulation) Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

  24. Answer: for system modeling one needs: Validated models of the system representing main behavior under changing controls (e.g. switched on by a new regulation) Do not exist, each new policy require new model and results in a set of new outcomes The society as a system is in the continuous process of change: in each moment of time it is in the new unique state which had never been before Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

  25. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable model Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

  26. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable model • does not exist, there are only heuristics and perceptions reflecting of deep human (politicians, specialists, population, etc) understanding of the issues as well as past experiences described in various papers, publications and case studies Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

  27. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable data describing current state of the system and its past Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

  28. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable data describing current state of the system and its past • Mostly missing, available data sources are always late, too generic and not always representative for the purpose, • There is usual time gap of at least 1 or more years which is not adequate to the inherent dynamics of the current social, economic and environmental developments Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

  29. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Time to make simulations and identify outcomes Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

  30. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Time to make simulations and identify outcomes • is always not sufficient for given complexity of issues and does not correspond to the pressure of political and economic time-frame (new policy preparation time frame is maximum 9 months in average). Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

  31. Available controls and non-controllable variables in policy making

  32. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making • Legislation

  33. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations

  34. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting

  35. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting Social climate and image making

  36. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting Social climate and image making Bidding and subcontracting practices

  37. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting Social climate and image making Bidding and subcontracting practices Personal relations among key players

  38. Non-controllable variables in policy making

  39. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc

  40. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc)

  41. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts

  42. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts • Changes in international relations, etc

  43. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts • Changes in international relations, etc • Changes of electorate attitude in national politics

  44. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts • Changes in international relations, etc • Changes of electorate attitude in national politics • Impacts of technologies and its progress

  45. Every new policy is an unique experiment!

  46. If it was done previously, it was done in different times and in another place! If it have to be done again in the future, it will be a new story!

  47. As it should have been done anyway the systematic approach is the only way to go

  48. One must do it anyway! Systematic approach is the only way to go • What we need to change by new policy and why?

  49. One must do it anyway! Systematic approach is the only way to go • What we need to change by new policy and why? • How we could have it done? (options & its comparison)