Supporting Evidence Policy Making and its monitoring

1. Supporting Evidence Policy Making and its monitoring Overview of issues and approaches

2. What is a POLICY?

3. Many definitions due to complexity of the phenomenon. If you ask GOOGLE or BING: Decisions made by some entity which provide regulations or rules for particular activities and relations between players. The policies are valid till the rules are changed.

4. Many definitions due to complexity of the phenomenon. Our contribution to the discussion: The process consisting of a sequence of decisions and implementation steps aimed at adjusting social and economic developments to ensure sustainable growth.

5. The process consisting of a sequence of decisions and implementation steps aimed at adjusting social and economic developments to ensure sustainable growth “Development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Definition of Sustainability: UN General Assembly, Report of the World Commission of Environment and Development “Our Common Future” August 4, 1987.

6. Examples of Policies (EU)

7. Examples of Policies (EU) • Measures to facilitate industrial cooperation and migration of firms • European company statute • Harmonization of industrial and commercial property laws • Removing restrictions (trade barriers, taxation, export regulations, etc) • Making restrictions (ecological, social, food safety) • The control of aid given by a member state to a firm or category of firms

8. Target objects

9. Society Economics Regions Countries In increasingly interconnected world

10. Ultimately the Target is:A COMPLEX SOCIAL & ECONOMIC SYSTEM

11. The target System and its components – subsystems

13. Implementation modality • Regulatory, e.g. administrative regulations

14. Implementation modality • Regulatory, e.g. administrative regulations • Changing legislation

15. Implementation modality • Regulatory, e.g. administrative regulations • Changing legislation • Multilateral Agreements

16. Focus of Analysis

17. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of

18. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis

19. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis • Decision preparations

20. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis • Decision preparations • Implementation monitoring

21. Among this rich diversity of issues and complexities we address the issues of • Evidence based policy analysis • Decision preparations • Implementation monitoring • Evaluation and possible traceability of results talking with sustainable social, economic, environmental and industrial developments in countries

22. Policy objectives Changing the Behavior of the System or its components

23. Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

24. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Validated models of the system representing its main behavior under changing controls (e.g. switched on by a new regulation) Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

25. Answer: for system modeling one needs: Validated models of the system representing main behavior under changing controls (e.g. switched on by a new regulation) Do not exist, each new policy require new model and results in a set of new outcomes The society as a system is in the continuous process of change: in each moment of time it is in the new unique state which had never been before Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

26. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable model Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

27. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable model • does not exist, there are only heuristics and perceptions reflecting of deep human (politicians, specialists, population, etc) understanding of the issues as well as past experiences described in various papers, publications and case studies Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

28. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable data describing current state of the system and its past Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

29. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Reliable data describing current state of the system and its past • Mostly missing, available data sources are always late, too generic and not always representative for the purpose, • There is usual time gap of at least 1 or more years which is not adequate to the inherent dynamics of the current social, economic and environmental developments Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

30. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Time to make simulations and identify outcomes Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluate expected results ?

31. Answer: for system modeling one needs: • Time to make simulations and identify outcomes • is always not sufficient for given complexity of issues and does not correspond to the pressure of political and economic time-frame (new policy preparation time frame is maximum 9 months in average). Question: Can it be simulated or modeled in advance to evaluated expected results ?

32. Available controls and non-controllable variables in policy making

33. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making • Legislation

34. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations

35. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting

36. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting Social climate and image making

37. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting Social climate and image making Bidding and subcontracting practices

38. Available controls and non controllable variables in policy making Legislation Regulations Funding/budgeting Social climate and image making Bidding and subcontracting practices Personal relations among key players

39. Non-controllable variables in policy making

40. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc

41. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc)

42. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts

43. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts • Changes in international relations, etc

44. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts • Changes in international relations, etc • Changes of electorate attitude in national politics

45. Non controllable variables in policy making • Global warming effects, storms, earthquakes, tsunami, rains, drought, etc • Global impacts: financial and energy crises, growing competition for water, food and natural resources, pandemics (HIV, bird flu, swine flu, etc) • Regional politics and its impacts • Changes in international relations, etc • Changes of electorate attitude in national politics • Impacts of technologies and its progress

46. Every new policy is an unique experiment!

47. If it was done previously, it was done in different times and in another place! If it have to be done again in the future, it will be a new story!

48. As it should have been done anyway the systematic approach is the only way to go

49. One must do it anyway! Systematic approach is the only way to go • What we need to change by new policy and why?

50. One must do it anyway! Systematic approach is the only way to go • What we need to change by new policy and why? • How we could have it done? (options & its comparison)