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Congressional Elections:

Congressional Elections:. Incumbency Advantage: What is it and why does it dominate Congressional Elections?. Not Even a Good Scandal…?. Bud Shuster (R- PA) Ken Calvert (R- CA)

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Congressional Elections:

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  1. Congressional Elections: Incumbency Advantage: What is it and why does it dominate Congressional Elections?

  2. Not Even a Good Scandal…? • Bud Shuster (R- PA) • Ken Calvert (R- CA) • Larry Makinson, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics said, ``In the vast majority of races around the country, there is no question who is going to win…'Absent an indictment or scandal or a million in the bank, it's awfully difficult to unseat an incumbent.'

  3. General Statistics: Trends in Incumbency Advantage • Over last two decades, 94% of incumbents seeking reelection won • Re-election rate has averaged about 95 % percent for the past 40 years and has seldom slipped below 90 percent • Even in 1994, when the Republicans reclaimed the majority in the House for the first time in a generation, 85% of incumbents who sought re-election won

  4. 2000 Election Winners 2%- Challengers 98%- Incumbent

  5. Competitive Races - Senate (2000) Total Races- 34 Competitive Races- 15 • One Senator (Jon Kyl, R-AZ) ran unopposed • In House, fewer than one in 10 races competitive

  6. Party Primaries: Why Bother? • It is extremely rare to have an incumbent lose in his own party primary. (Since 1990, 8 out of 2,000 elections) When this happens, you can be pretty sure he/she was sacrificed Incumbent Death- Incumbent Defeat-(Party Primary)

  7. Redistricting: Creation of “Safe” Seats • In 64 House districts, the population is so lopsidedly Democratic or Republican that there was only one major-party name on the ballot • That includes four out of the seven seats in Alabama, five out of 11 in Virginia and 10 out of 23 in Florida. • About one in every seven House races have only one major party on ballot

  8. Explanations for Incumbency Advantage • Money? • Name Recognition • Institutional Advantages • Casework • Configuration of District • Experience

  9. Money? • By July 1, 1999, more than a year before 2000 election, the average incumbent already had $300,000 in the bank for campaigning • That discourages quality challengers • In over 80% of races, incumbent holds at least 2-1 advantage in money • In 2/3 of House races, the advantage was over 10-1 • It is NOT the money that makes an incumbent win. The fact that the incumbent is going to win brings in the money!

  10. Name Recognition • At the most basic level, the public hesitates to vote for a candidate they know nothing about • One of the most consistent findings over the years in looking at voting in congressional elections is that simply knowing who the candidate is has a striking impact in voting for that candidate • When presented with the names of two candidates on the ballot, the fact that the voter recognizes one of those names will lead to a likely vote for that individual

  11. Institutional Advantages • Franking privilege • Most members spend as much on franking as opponent spends in entire campaign • Money to travel to district • Originally, only 3 visits per year • Today, 30-50 times per year • Free Press • CSPAN • Local news coverage • Access to media production facilities in Capitol Building

  12. Casework • What is casework: Congressional staff helping constituents solve problems and cut red tape • Huge increases in staff size • Casework is NON-PARTISAN • District Office(s) – Mobile offices in rural districts • While the # of constituents that have gotten casework help is small, the # that learn of casework is much higher • Ernie’s radio/tv ads in 2002 boasted casework testimonials

  13. Configuration of District • Every 10 years, when the census is conducted, congressional districts are redrawn (allocation of congressional seats can also change) • Redistricting is done by partisan state legislators • These legislators traditionally use this opportunity to their advantage (sometimes shifting neighborhoods, even entire towns)

  14. Experience • Incumbents are highly skilled politicians • Pork-barrel politics • Members get on committees that will help them at home • “Home Styles” – Incumbents know how to win elections in their district. They have mastered their relationship with their constituents

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