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Outlook for U.S. Commodities

This report provides a detailed analysis of the corn, wheat, and soybean balance sheets in the U.S. from 1998 to 2001, including acre planted, production, imports, uses, and ending stocks. It also discusses the impact of low grain and soybean prices on energy and protein costs for the livestock sector.

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Outlook for U.S. Commodities

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  1. Outlook for U.S. Commodities by Jim Hilker, Ph. D. and John Ferris, Ph. D. MSU Department of Agricultural Economics

  2. CORN BALANCE SHEET Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Acre Planted (Mil) 80.2 77.4 76.8 Acre Harv. (Mil) 72.6 70.5 70.0 Bu/Harvested Ac 134.4 133.8 134.9 Production (Mil Bu) 9,759 9,437 9,443

  3. CORN BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Beg. Stocks 1,308 1,787 1,714 Production 9,759 9,437 9,443 Imports 19 15 13 Total Supply 11,086 11,239 11,170

  4. CORN BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Uses: Feed and Residual 5,496 5,650 5,625 Food, Seed and Ind. Uses 1,8221,9001,960 Total Domestic 7,318 7,550 7,585 Exports 1,9811,9752,025 Total Use 9,299 9,525 9,610

  5. CORN BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Total Supply 11,086 11,239 11,170 Total Use 9,299 9,525 9,610 End. Stocks 1,787 1,714 1,560 End.Stocks, % of Use 19.2 18.0 16.2 Reg. Loan Rate $1.89 $1.89 $1.89 U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu. $1.94 $1.90 $2.10

  6. WHEAT BALANCE SHEET Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Acre Planted (Mil) 65.8 62.8 62.2 Acre Harv. (Mil) 59.0 53.9 54.3 Bu/Harvested Ac 43.2 42.7 40.6 Production (Mil Bu) 2,548 2,302 2,205

  7. WHEAT BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Beg. Stocks 722 946 972 Production 2,548 2,302 2,205 Imports 103 100 103 Total Supply 3,373 3,348 3,280

  8. WHEAT BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Uses: Food 903 910 915 Seed 81 91 90 Feed 401 300 300 Total Domestic 1,385 1,301 1,305 Exports 1,0421,0751,125 Total Use 2,427 2,375 2,430

  9. WHEAT BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Total Supply 3,373 3,348 3,280 Total Use 2,427 2,376 2,430 End. Stocks 946 972 850 End.Stocks, % of Use 38.9 41.0 35.0 Reg. Loan Rate $2.58 $2.58 $2.58 U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.65 $2.50 $2.80

  10. SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Acre Planted (Mil) 72.0 73.8 73.8 Acre Harv. (Mil) 70.4 72.8 72.5 Bu/Harvested Ac 38.9 36.5 39.2 Production (Mil Bu) 2,741 2,994 3,210

  11. SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Beg. Stocks 200 348 365 Production 2,741 2,643 2,842 Imports 3 3 3 Total Supply 2,944 2,994 3,210

  12. SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Uses: Crushings 1,590 1,605 1,630 Exports 801 865 920 Food, Seed and Residuals 205 159 160 Total Use 2,596 2,629 2,710

  13. SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels) Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Total Supply 2,944 2,994 3,210 Total Use 2,596 2,629 2,710 End. Stocks 348 365 500 End.Stocks, % of Use 13.4 13.9 18.4 Reg. Loan Rate $5.26 $5.26 $5.26 U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu. $4.93 $4.75 $4.50

  14. Low Grain and Soybean Prices Translates into Low Energy and Protein Costs for the Livestock Sector

  15. Milk Price History and Projection

  16. History & Projection

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