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“NAVAL DESIGN GOES GREEN” EUROPEAN MARITIME DAY ---------------------- Contribution by PAOLO LOTTI

“NAVAL DESIGN GOES GREEN” EUROPEAN MARITIME DAY ---------------------- Contribution by PAOLO LOTTI Head of Industry’s International Relations FINCANTIERI SpA Gijon, 20 March 2010. SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY - SAILING IN ROUGH WATERS. DEMAND TREND – LONG PERIOD. 86. NEWBUILDING DEMAND

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“NAVAL DESIGN GOES GREEN” EUROPEAN MARITIME DAY ---------------------- Contribution by PAOLO LOTTI

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  1. “NAVAL DESIGN GOES GREEN” EUROPEAN MARITIME DAY ---------------------- Contribution by PAOLO LOTTI Head of Industry’s International Relations FINCANTIERI SpA Gijon, 20 March 2010

  2. SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY - SAILING IN ROUGH WATERS

  3. DEMAND TREND – LONG PERIOD 86 NEWBUILDING DEMAND 1980 – 2009 (Mil Cgt) 56 46 45 44 38 “Great Depression” 30 27 23 23 22 22 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 16 14 12 12 12 11 11 11 8 10 9 09 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Billion US$) 263 156 18

  4. DEMAND TREND – SHORT PERIOD Total Orders by segment 2007 – 1st quarter 2010 Mil.CGT 2% 85.9 24% Cruise ships - 49% High-Tech ships Compared to 2007 Standard ships 1% 43.7 26% - 64% 74% Compared to 2008 22% 73% 15.9 22% 78% 3,2 78% 2007 2008 2009 Jan – Mar 2010 Total Orders by building area (% CGT) R.of.W. 8% 9% 12% 17% Mil. CGT 34% 32% 41% Jan – Mar 2010 2007 2008 2009 34% 5.0 8.6 1.2 0.5 R.of W China 1.1 14.0 29.1 6.5 S.Korea 15.0 32,4 3.4 1.3 21% 34% 38% Japan 7,6 10.1 4.3 0.2 (*) EU 27 + N 2.1 5.7 40% 0.5 0.1 Totale 85.9 43.7 15.9 3.2 27% 17% 12% (*) = since 2007 “EU + N” includes also Bulgaria and Romania 5% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2007 2008 2009 Jan - Mar 2010

  5. IMPACT ON THE EMPLOYMENT 44,000 30,000 8,950 + full supply chain + 1st tier suppliers Europe Direct > 580.000 ~400.000 130.000 + full supply chain Direct + 1st tier suppliers ALREADY AFFECTED IN EUROPE 26.000 > 80.000 ~ 110.000 TOTAL AT RISK 75.000 ~ 200.000 ~ 290.000

  6. DEMAND & SUPPLY FORECAST 86 NEWBUILDING DEMAND 1980 – 2009 (Mil Cgt) Supply 2012 > 50 Mil. Cgt 56 46 45 44 GAP ~ 50 % 38 Expected Demand 2012-2020 25 – 30 Mil.Cgt 30 27 23 23 22 22 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 16 14 12 12 12 11 11 11 8 10 9 09 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

  7. POSSIBLE WAYS OUT No demand upturn can be expected in the short – medium period No direct aid from national state to shipbuilding industry is allowed by European rules (only limited contribution to research and innovation) …but Two initiatives are supported by the European Union and some National Authorities to stimulate demand : • promotion of “short sea shipping” (only schemes / ships targeting emissions reductions) • “greening” the EU fleet. Goal : • to enhance the safety and environmental characteristics of the ferry fleet (to begin with), largely over-aged, • To support the fleet renewal without creating oversupply.

  8. ROLE OF PRELIMINARY DESIGN

  9. ROLE OF DESIGN TOOLS Hydro dynamics Mechanical & thermo dynamics Heating, cooling, ventilation Hull service systems Electrical systems Electronic Control Systems ………. INTEGRATION OF DESIGN TOOLS – SIMULATION TOOLS – ITC GREEN APPROACH

  10. MARITIME RESEARCH IN HYDRODYNAMICS : THE BALANCE BETWEEN SIMULATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS Main current research directions • Effort toward the improvement of simulation codes (CFD)to deliver a complete toolset for marine hydrodynamics (e.g. Integrated Project VIRTUE “Virtual Tank Utility in Europe”, 2005-2008(6th FP), BESST “Breakthrough in European Ship and Shipbuilding Technologies” and other ongoing projects) • Large, coordinated effort to collect experimental accurate dataset for model scale validation of numerical simulations (Blind workshops: SIMMAN 2008, Gothenburg 2005,2010 ). Validated CFD tools can then be used for full scale prediction • Increasing effort to develop Simulation Based Designframeworks for the numerical optimization of the design. The ultimate goal is to help shipyards in designing better ships. • SBD is where R&D meets industrial innovation

  11. Accurate CFD tools Automatic mesh SIMULATION BASED ENVIRONMENT MPI Parallel processing Optimization Algorithms EFD validation Variable Fidelity & Metamodels

  12. Q & A ? Friendly questions only, please

  13. WHAT “EXACTLY” IS CFD? It covers the whole spectrum of flow studies, from sophisticatedflow physics to applied industrial computations Computational power: CFD is able to saturate immediately any High Performance Computing Center Its development is fully controlled by the availability of large computational resources CFD results should be regularly confronted to experimental data to avoid any devious evolution towards ColorfulFluid Dynamics!

  14. CFD AND HYDRODYNAMICS : OPEN ISSUES Compared to the aeronautic industry ships are built in very short series  studies devoted to hydrodynamics do not represent a large portion of the budget : • CFD should be fast, flexible and cheap Experimental tests are performed at model scale  scale effects may be large and mostly unknown! • CFD should provide a cheap, unique answer to study scale effects Ship hulls are usually very complex. Propulsors are located in regions characterised by complex flow physics and the influence of appendages should be accounted for! • CFD should be able to provide reliable simulations of full scale flows around fully appended hulls

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