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An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130

CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 4 th Quarter 2012. An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130 San Antonio, TX 78216 210.547.3450 www.harrismartinfinancial.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

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An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway , Suite 1130

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  1. CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 4th Quarter 2012 An Independent Registered Investment Advisor 9601 McAllister Freeway, Suite 1130 San Antonio, TX 78216 210.547.3450 www.harrismartinfinancial.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC Stephanie Harris, CFP®Kyle Martin, CFP ® stephanie@harrismartinfinancial.com kyle@harrismartinfinancial.com

  2. OUTLOOK • Investor Behavior • Despite rising risks and low potential returns, investors continue to be misallocated. • US Equities • US Equities look attractive, even after assessing risks. • Global Economy • The global economy remains troubled, but not in crisis and international valuations remain attractive. • Way Forward • Investors need a more balanced approach to generating income in an age of stretched valuations.

  3. Investor Behavior

  4. It’s been a very good year for “risk assets” so far…

  5. However, investors continue to hoard cash…

  6. …and mutual fund flows are still heavily from stocks to bonds.

  7. The venerable Treasury market just turned 31…

  8. …leaving many fixed income investors vulnerable.

  9. US Equities

  10. All the style boxes look cheap, with large cap growth the cheapest.

  11. The stock market has rallied to close-to-previous-peak levels, but relative valuations look much more attractive now…

  12. After the biggest bear market in modern history, this bull still looks relatively young.

  13. Stronger confidence could push stocks (and rates) higher.

  14. Cyclical sectors point to sluggish growth but no recession.

  15. Fiscal cliff still looks dangerous, but unlikely.

  16. Markets have risen under both parties.

  17. Global Economy

  18. European fiscal policy still isn’t working…

  19. …but the ECB has protected the sovereign debt market.

  20. The actions of the ECB have succeeded in calming fears about sovereign debt and the banking system…

  21. European stocks look cheap in absolute and relative terms.

  22. Way Forward

  23. In the age of debt, investors need to move back to balanced.

  24. Backup Charts

  25. Gold

  26. Historical Returns by Holding Period

  27. Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines

  28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900

  29. Index Definitions

  30. Index Definitions

  31. Definitions, Risks, & Disclosures The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments, referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Stephanie Harris and Kyle Martin and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. All charts included above are for illustrative purposes only.

  32. Stephanie A. Harris, CFP® 210.547.3450 stephanie@harrismartinfinancial.com Kyle Martin, CFP® 210.547.3450 kyle@harrismartinfinancial.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC

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