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Zocalo

Zocalo. Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software Chris Hibbert CommerceNet Labs DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices 4 February 2005. Zocalo: Challenges. My Objective: Promote broader use of Prediction Markets Our Opportunity:

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Zocalo

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  1. Zocalo • Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software • Chris Hibbert • CommerceNet Labs • DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices • 4 February 2005

  2. Zocalo: Challenges • My Objective: • Promote broader use of Prediction Markets • Our Opportunity: • CommerceNet is starting an e-commerce lab. • One Key Obstacle: • No common software platform for prediction markets yet.

  3. Zocalo: A Proposal • Our Proposed Solution: • Catalyze development of an Open Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets. • Call to Action: • Identify promising “wheels to stop re-inventing.” • Collaborate with us on your next experiment. • Help us make the case to CommerceNet.

  4. Outline • My Background and Incentives • Why me? • The Target Markets for Zocalo • Who should care? • Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already? • Benefits of Open Source • Design for Flexibility • Benefits of Working with CommerceNet

  5. My Background • MIT, Xerox PARC • Managed S/W Development for 12 Years • Teams of 3 to 15 people • E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc. • Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft • Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce • Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs. • Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks) • Strong background in Economics • Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W

  6. Target Audiences .edu Econ Departments Show how markets work CommerceNet .com Business Planning, Trading .org SimonMarket.org Policy Discussion

  7. Why Aren’t Prediction Market Toolkits Available? • Researchers focus on running experiments: • Little reward for publishing software. • Toolkits emerge once experiments are systematized • Corporate users develop proprietary solutions: • Consulting, not general-purpose infrastructure. • CommerceNet’s motivation is different: • Its research focus is software engineering. • Has track record of sharing software that creates new markets for electronic commerce.

  8. Benefits of Open Source • Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible • Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation • Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market • Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways • Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project

  9. The Zocalo Toolkit Design • Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools • Support CDA and Call Markets • Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities • Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods • Support for Experiments • Instrument all Activity • Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis • Apply Current S/W Development Approaches • Flexible Support for UIs • Scalability, Decentralization, Security

  10. Who is CommerceNet? • 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money • Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-Commerce • Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups to Create Common Tools • e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience Measurement • Fosters Entrepreneurs • Creating a New Software Research Lab • Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce • zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo

  11. Project Phases • First Step: • Collect Requirements • Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters • Demonstrate Reuse • Short Term: • Expand Variety of Market Institutions • Ensure Easy Configurability • Medium Term: • Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses • Develop support for Confederations of Markets • Long Term: • Deploy Public Markets with Partners

  12. Collaboration Possibilities • Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths • We are Looking for Partners • (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs) • Express Your Interest • Describe Your Needs • Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market • White Paper available in February chris.hibbert@commerce.net • http://zLab.Commerce.Net • http://blog.Commerce.Net

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