Under the hood of a 2006-2013 slow down in population growth of Auckland James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Quality Hotel Parnell, Auckland 21st-May 2014
Outline • Auckland Council level • Under the hood of 2006-2013 population changes • Auckland Local Boards and Case Studies • Comparing net change 2006-2013 • Overall - reflecting this audience – a focus on child age groups
Big Picture – Auckland Council area .. • Contributors to Population change in Auckland • Overview • Births spike … • Net Migration rates by age • Increase in Households (occupied dwellings) lags population growth – small increase in mean household size • Indicators of emerging trends in population .. • New Residential Building permits.. • International immigration and emigration
Population AccountsOverviewLocal Authorities of the Auckland Council Region (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)
Auckland Council Area : Population Change by Inter-censalPeriod
Reconciling national population accounts and net international PLT flows over intercensal periods ..
Are these differences between Net PLT Migr and est net migration age specific?
Possible reasons for these differences • A change in the extent of undercount between 2006 and 2013? • Switch between stated international movement intentions and actual
Is there an increase in the undercount from 2006 to 2013? Comparing the census and roll counts for 2001, 2006 and 2013 …
Undercount? How do School rolls and census counts compare? School rolls % higher or lower than census count
Under the hood –Auckland population growth rates, drivers and composition – overview
Estimated % Per Annum Net Migration Rate by AgeAuckland Council : Inter-censal Periods 1991 to 2013
Estimated net migration gain by 5 yr age groupAuckland Council : Inter-censal Periods 1991 to 2013
Estimated net migration gain Children and young adults by 5 yr age groupAuckland Council : Inter-censal Periods 1991 to 2013
Large increase in multi-family households 2006-2013 Note : 8.1% increase in households vs 8.6% incr in population – increase in mean hh size
Looking forward - Auckland population projections .. and indicators of recent trends post census ..
Looking forward - projected Auckland Population Change 2013 to 2031..? Note – 2006/11 period for projections but used 2006/13 for census counts Source – Statistics NZ 2012 Subnational Population projections and population census counts
Auckland permanent long term migration flows – (immigration and emigration …)
12 Mth Moving Average – Auckland Permanent Long Term Flows – to March 2014
Population distribution / redistribution within Auckland • Population density changes … what is driving them / why?
Change in Population Density : 2006-2013persons per sq km (reds incr – blues decrease..)
Compare with changes in Population Density : 2001-2006persons per sqkm (reds incr – blues decrease..)
Reasons for population density changes ..? • Increase in population density .. • Increase in number of dwellings or in occupancy rates of dwellings • Increase in mean household size - psns per dwelling • Increase in dwelling density • Decrease in population density .. • Decrease in number of dwellings (rezone non-residential) or in occupancy rates of dwellings (housing corp policies, seasonal / cyclical residence) • Decrease in mean household size - psns per occ dwelling • Decrease in dwelling density
Why a decrease in population density in some areas ..? e.g. South Auckland Case Study :Otara – Papatoetoe Local Board Area
Some insights into ethnic compositional changes from school enrolment data 1998 – 2013(a repeat of some material from the March 2014 seminar..)