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Construction Cost Trends

Construction Cost Trends. Central Texas Conference – November 13, 2009. Construction Cost Trends. The Last 18 Months Current Economic Factors Stimulus Efforts/Effect CEFPI Project Cost Tracking What Lies Ahead. 1. The Last 18 Months.

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Construction Cost Trends

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  1. Construction Cost Trends Central Texas Conference – November 13, 2009

  2. Construction Cost Trends • The Last 18 Months • Current Economic Factors • Stimulus Efforts/Effect • CEFPI Project Cost Tracking • What Lies Ahead

  3. 1. The Last 18 Months Producer price index (PPI) for construction vs. consumer price index, 2003-09 PPI for inputs to construction industries: 33% Consumer price index: 17% Source: BLS (CPI, PPI) and The Associated General Contractors of America

  4. 1. The Last 18 Months Source: GerdauAmeristeel

  5. 1. The Last 18 Months • Tail end of an overheated market • Soaring demand and pricing • Collapse of the housing market • Financial market implosion • Government Intervention • Dust begins to settle • Chasing the market

  6. 1. The Last 18 Months Chasing the Market Budgets $ Cost Historical Inflation % Time

  7. 1. The Last 18 Months PPI for inputs to construction industries: 33% $/SF Consumer price index: 17% Elementary School Case Study

  8. 2. Current Economic Factors • Foreign demand • Petroleum price • Texas employment • School enrollments • Single family housing market • Commercial construction market • Availability of financing • P&P bonding availability • Political environment

  9. 3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect • Federal program • Status of funds • Results

  10. 3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect Total : $787 billion in spending increases, tax cuts • $308 billion in appropriated spending • $267 billion in direct spending (refundable portion of tax credits, unemployment benefits, Medicaid reimbursement to states, etc.) • $212 billion in tax cuts Economic stimulus package Source: The Associated General Contractors of America

  11. 3. Stimulus Efforts/Effect

  12. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking Local Project Costs and Inflation History As maintained by the local CEFPI organization

  13. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking • General Information • District Name • Grade Level • Bldg Square Footage • Student Capacity • Square Footage per Student • Bid Date • Completion Date • Project Delivery Method • Cost Information • Site work/Site Athletics • Building Cost • Other Costs • Offsite Roads/Utilities/Land • Design & Testing • Differentiating Features • Site conditions , etc. Project Information Sheet contains Basic Information

  14. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking Project Information Sheet contains Basic Information • Items Budgeted/ Furnished Separately by the Owner • P.A. System • Computer Software • Textbooks • Projector Screens • Landscaping • Televisions • Computer Hardware • Library Books • Furniture • Movable Equipment • Library Shelving • Computers • Security Systems • Telephone Systems • Playground Equipment

  15. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking Sample of Project Information Sheet

  16. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking Project Information SpreadsheetOverall

  17. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking Project Information SpreadsheetProject Information

  18. Project Information SpreadsheetBid Date by Year and Actual Inflation Rate 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking

  19. 4. CEFPI Project Cost Tracking Project Information SpreadsheetInflation Rate Projected

  20. 5. What Lies Ahead • Short Term • Long Term

  21. 5. What Lies Ahead Aluminum Price History November 1999 thru October 2009 Copper West Texas Crude Oil

  22. 5. What Lies Ahead Outlook for materials (beyond ‘09) • Industry depends on specific materials that: • Are in demand worldwide • Have erratic supply growth • Are heavy, bulky or hard to transport • Construction requires physical delivery • Thus, industry is subject to price spurts, transport bottlenecks, fuel price swings • Expect 6 to 8% PPI increases, higher spikes Source: The Associated General Contractors of America

  23. 5. What Lies Ahead Summary for 2010 • Nonres spending: 0 to -5% (more stimulus put in place, maybe gains in retail, higher ed, hospitals) • Res: +5 to +10% (SF up, MF down all year) • Total construction spending: -4% to +2% • Materials costs: 0% to +8% • Labor costs: +3% or less Source: The Associated General Contractors of America

  24. 5. What Lies Ahead

  25. Construction Cost Trends Presented by: Jimmy Disler, Leander ISD Jimmy.Disler@leanderisd.org Ed Sevcik, Round Rock ISD Ed_Sevcik@roundrockisd.org Marty Burger, American Constructors MBurger@acitexas.com Steve McCleskey, Bartlett Cocke SMcCleskey@bartlettcocke.com CEFPI School Construction Cost Summary http://media.cefpi.org/southern/texasnorth/CTConstructionCostReport102709.xls

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