The Wiki and the Blog NIH Wiki Fair

1. The Wiki and the BlogNIH Wiki Fair D. Calvin Andrus Chief Technology Officer Center for Mission Innovation Central Intelligence Agency 28 February 2007

2. Battle of New Orleans

3. Operation Iraqi Freedom

4. Intelligence - Policy Time Compression

5. Arms Race v.s. “Times” Race • Rapid responses are required to maintain tactical and strategic advantages over those who would do the United States harm

6. Rapid Turnover and Genetic Research Family: Drosophilidae Maturity: 14 Days Gestation: 10 Days Offspring: 500 Family: Elephantidae Maturity: 11 Years Gestation: 22 Months Offspring: 1

7. Rapid Policy Turnover and Intelligence Cold War Global Waron Terrorism

8. We Must Adapt to Change The US National Security Community—and the Intelligence Community within it—is faced with the issue of how to operate in a security environment that, by its nature, is changing rapidly in ways we cannot predict.A simple answer is that the Intelligence Community, by its nature, must change rapidly in ways we cannot predict.

9. Allow Learning to Change Us • We must transform the Intelligence Community into a community that dynamically reinvents itself by continuously learning and adapting as the national security environment changes.

10. Begin Detour Here . . . • On our way to suggesting an answer, let us consider the ideas of those who have already wrestled with similar issues . . .

11. What do These Have in Common? Ant Hill Alan Turing, 1912-1954 Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand The Butterfly Effect General System Theory Fractals

12. Complexity Theory • They are all examples of a extremely diverse body of thought that has recently been codified as Complexity Theory. • Complex Adaptive Behavior is a basic tenet of this theory and is characterized by: • Cooperative individual behavior • Emergence of a community • Adaptation to feedback

13. Complex Adaptive Behavior

14. Complexity Theory Suggests. . . . . . that from intelligence officers who are allowed to share information and act upon it within a simple tradecraft regime will emerge an intelligence community that continuously and dynamically reinvents itself in response to the needs of the national security environment.

15. Technology Can Enable Complex Adaptive Behavior in Human Knowledge Workers

16. One Model to Follow . . .

17. Wiki Home Page

25. Soggy Sweat

26. Discussion

27. Talk Update

28. Sweat Update

29. Capabilities Wikis Bring • Because Wikis are real-time, self-authored, hyperlinked bodies of knowledge that are open to everyone on the system, they can adapt as fast as a person can enter information. • With the addition of • knowledgebase, • search, and • feedback tools, contributors can know--in real time--how the knowledge is received, and thus can make adjustments--in real time.

30. Standing on Giants If I have been able to see further, it was only because I stood on the shoulders of giants. Wikis can provide a space for our Intelligence giants to walk . . . and for them to stand on each other’s shoulders in near real time.

31. The Technology Stack

32. Social Value of Technology

33. Metcalfe and Disruption • Robert Metcalfe, inventor of the Ethernet protocol and founder of 3Com, asserted that the value of a communication system grows as approximately the square of the number of nodes of the system. • Andrus’s corollary is that the value of a web space (wikis and blogs) grows as the square of the number of links created in the web space. • Once a critical mass is reached, new social, political, and economic systems start to emerge. This is what authors Downes and Mui call the Law of Disruption. Larry Downes and Chunka Mui (1998) Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance. Cambridge, MA. Harvard Business School Press. Critical Mass

34. Page Rank

35. Critical Mass (as of 2/11/07) #1 #2 #3

36. New IC Emerges Through Links

37. Intellipedia

38. A Space to Grow • By deploying wikis on classified networks, and granting access to all comers, we put the Foreign Policy, Defense, National Security, and Intelligence Communities together. Knowledge and feedback is shared by all. • Thus, changes in the National Security environment can be learned by the Intel Community, which in turn, can adapt • From simple local interactions, a global community emerges

39. Intellipedia

40. Behavior Changes

41. In Conclusion • Technology is the enabler, not the solution • The solution is changing the culture to allow intelligence officers to share and act -- with simple rules of engagement • The IC/CMS must build an incentive and reward structure for those components that adopt this new model of doing business

42. The End

43. Backup Slides Follow

44. Feedback Examples

45. Two examples of self-organizing websites that allow expertise to play a deciding role are • Slashdot • Experts Exchange

48. Mandelbrot Fractal Algorithm Z(n+1) = Z(n)^2 + C, where C = X+Y For X = min to max, step For Y = min to max, step For counter = min to limit, step 1 C = X + Y Z(counter+1) = Z(counter) * Z(counter) + C If Z(counter+1) > threshold then next counter else plot X,Y with color (counter) and go to next Y If counter=limit then plot X,Y with color (black) Next Y Next X