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Reservoir Facies

Optimum Application of Geosciences in the Search for Hydrocarbon in Frontier Basins, Examples from Sudan. Source Efficiency. Trapping Integrity. PLAY. Reservoir Facies. By Dr. Mohamed Zayed Awad. NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD. Simplified Geological Map of Sudan. Muglad Basin.

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Reservoir Facies

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  1. Optimum Application of Geosciencesin the Search for Hydrocarbon in Frontier Basins, Examples from Sudan Source Efficiency Trapping Integrity PLAY Reservoir Facies By Dr. Mohamed Zayed Awad NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

  2. Simplified Geological Map of Sudan Muglad Basin Tertiary & Older sequences Cretaceous & Older Sequences Basement Rocks Basin Boundary

  3. Opportunities Why has there been so much interest in onshore Sudan? • Success & profitability • High success rates(69%) • Low Exploration Unit Finding Cost($0.90/b) • Improved infrastructure • More than 300-kilometer long pipelines from Heglig, Palogue & Fula to Bashyer Marine Terminal in the Red Sea. • Three refineries of 130,000 b/d capacity (to be expanded to 200k b/d) • Contractual arrangements • Cost recovery & profit sharing basis (PSC) • Encouraging tax & custom exemption Sudan is providing areas with exciting opportunities for exploration companies of all sizes.

  4. Developing local content For the industry to be beneficial to the Sudanese people, the Government formulated policies to ensure localization of all petroleum projects ….. • Engagement of small indigenous companies with smaller capital allows them to partake in oil profits and minimize capital flight • Localization of projects that facilitated knowledge and technology transfer, which were & remain crucial for better harnessing of local workforce and resources • Nationalization program is focusing on improving the technical capability and competence levels of the local workforce (80% of two major op. co. nationalized within 5 yrs.) Developing people for better resource management

  5. PETROLEUM RESOURCE ASSESSMENT IN FRONTIER BASINS “DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVENESS OF FANCY ECONOMIC AND ENGINEERING ANALYSES, THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE POSSIBLE PAYOFF OF A PROSPECT OR A PLAY IS THEGEOLOGICAL, JUDGMENTAL ESTIMATION OF HYDROCARBON VOLUME AND RISK” -- David A. White (1993)

  6. Risk and Volumetric Explorationists are not concerned about whether hydrocarbons are present or not in the prospect, rather they want to know thechance of findinga sufficient quantities of petroleum to warrant completion of the drilled well. They also think of “if a well is completed, how muchprofit will it generate?”

  7. Why Do Risk Analysis?: • To quantify the unknown (uncertainty) • To forecast or predict events yet to come • To compare alternative investments • Before one goes into risk analysis, it is important to assess potential outcomes and their values. Prerequisites of Risk Analysis: • Define investment opportunities (outcomes) • Historical data or analogy • Seek expert opinion • Knowledge of principles of probability and statistics

  8. Economic Assumptions Economic Results DECISION • Price • Cost Escalation • Inflation • Exchange Rate • Economic Indicators Engineering Facility cost, Production profile, Recover Factor Economic Analysis (Cash flow Model & Value Matrix, NPV, EV; Fiscal terms, Tax) Mean Resource Volume (=EV= Revenue) EVALUATION PROCESS FLOW • Assessment of • Geol. Elements • Source • reservoir • Trap/ Seal • Timing Risk & Sensitivity Analysis

  9. HC Resource Assessment in Virgin Basins “Look-alike Approach” Comparison has to be made on basis of examination of the key factors that are favorable for the generation and accumulation of commercial quantities of hydrocarbon . • Three main factors have to be considered in searching for analogy: • Tectonic evolution, basin geometry & size, • Sedimentation style and, • The Geothermal history • These factors have control on the presence and effectiveness of the petroleum geological elements are processes

  10. Step-by-Step Resource Assessment in Virgin Basins “Look-alike Approach” STEP #1: Look for, and choose a mature basin that is comparable or similar to the virgin basin under investigation, STEP #2: Generate a frequency, and thereafter a filed size distribution diagram from the discovered fields in the mature basin, STEP #3: Work out the mean reserves from the field size distribution of the analogous mature basin (Muglad Basin) STEP #4: Use the “Prospect Size Distribution Table” to find out the expected mean HC resource from virgin basin under investigation,

  11. KN1 BLOCK 2A May-25 Bamboo KN23 NH12 Sadeeq Bamboo South Jidian KN20 (Timsah-1) Tayib Jamousse BLOCK 1A HEGLIG FIELD Amal-1 Laloba Rihan Amal KN15 El Toor N FIELD Updip(K25) Kanga El Barki Mahafir Hamra TOMAR El Toor E TOMA SOUTH El Nar Shammam-1 (Drilling) BLOCK 4 ELTOOR (U6) El Saqr(U7) El Ghazal El Harr(U8) Munga Cent. Umm Saqura WU5 (U14) TALIH Kuoc Nor FIELD Jak El Majak Malok K5 (K9) UNITY FIELD Khairat E Kaikang-2 Nyang Kaikang-1 RED SEA KS1b (Tamur-1) CENTRAL AFRICAN RIFT SYSTEM MUGLAD BASIN EGYPT

  12. S R C T M Sagging Tertiary System Rifting Sagging Rift Cycles Rifting Cretaceous System Sagging Rifting BASIN TECTONICS & PETROLEUM SYSTEM

  13. Sedimentation Style

  14. Example of field size distribution of discovered reserves “Look-alike Approach” Typical lognormal distribution

  15. P1 P10 P50 P90 P99 Muglad Basin Field Size Distribution Mean = 54 MMBO P70 P80 0.1 1000 10 1 100 Potential Reserves (MMBO)

  16. X 10 Mean HC Resource Assessment in Virgin Basins “Look-alike Approach” Example of estimating future field size of the virgin basin under consideration using the Muglad Baisn as “ANALOG” The overall mean reserves from lognornmal distribution of the analog (Muglad Basin) is 5.4 X 10 million bbl, and our assessment minimum were 1.0 x 10, we could run down the “Mean” column of Table above until we hit the closest number to 5.4, which is 5.39. The selected distribution would be (1 - 4.47 – 20) X 10. Therefore the mean resource volume to be used for economic assessment & decision analysis would be 45 million bbl.

  17. Economic Assumptions Economic Results DECISION • Price • Cost Escalation • Inflation • Exchange Rate • Economic Indicators Economic Analysis (Cash flow Model & Value Matrix, NPV, EV; Fiscal terms, Tax) EVALUATION PROCESS FLOW IN OIL & GAS PROJECTS Engineering Facility cost, Production profile, Recover Factor • Assessment of • Geol. Elements • Source • reservoir • Trap/ Seal • Timing Risk & Sensitivity Analysis 45 MMBO

  18. P1 P10 P50 P90 Small Fields Medium Fields Large Fields P99 Muglad Basin Field Size Distribution P70 P80 0.1 1000 10 1 100 Potential Reserves (MMBO)

  19. No Commercial Discovery POF Small Field POS POS Medium Field Buy Acreage POS Large Field Don’t buy Decision node (= decision maker dictates) Chance node (= nature dictates)

  20. Thank You لكم الشكر على حســـن الاستماع

  21. Source Efficiency Trapping Integrity PLAY Reservoir Facies TIMING Trap formation vs. Generation? RESERVOIR Porous rock that can hold? TRAP/ SEAL Is there a place to collect it? PLAY CONCEPT SOURCE Is there oil in the basin? Probability of Success

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