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Agricultural Outlook for 2013

Agricultural Outlook for 2013. Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21, 2013. US agricultural e xports p rojected at record h igh. Bil $. FY 2013 exports: $142.0 b FY 2013 imports: 112.5 b Net trade bal : 29.5 b.

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Agricultural Outlook for 2013

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  1. Agricultural Outlook for 2013 Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21, 2013

  2. US agricultural exports projected at record high Bil $ FY 2013 exports: $142.0 b FY 2013 imports: 112.5 b Net trade bal: 29.5 b Fiscal year

  3. China remains top destination for US agricultural exports for 2nd straight year Bil $ Fiscal year

  4. Soybeans and cotton account for two-thirds of US agricultural exports to China Bil $

  5. Export values forecast up in FY 2013 for most commodity categories

  6. But export volumes flat or down for most commodities Mil mt -37.5% -4.7% +7.4% -2.0% +2.7% -4.1% n/c -0.6%

  7. Brazil corn exports to surpass U.S. exports? Source: USDA-FAS monthly trade circular, Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 8, 2013

  8. Global ending stocks tighten for grains lowest since 1973/74

  9. China builds cotton inventory Million bales

  10. Much of area exiting CRP is located in Plains states Acres Source: Farm Service Agency

  11. Planted acres projected to decline in 2013Million acres

  12. Drought persists across much of the United States

  13. Corn and soybean production projected to rebound in 2013

  14. Preseason precipitation and Iowa corn yields Corr= 0.059

  15. Weekly ethanol production below RFS caps for conventional biofuels • Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

  16. US corn use for ethanol rebounds, but below 5 billion bushels Percent Mil bushels

  17. Motor gasoline use projected to decline Bil gal Source: DOE--Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

  18. Commodity prices fall from record levels Wheat, corn and soybeans in dollars per bushel; rice in dollars per hundredweight; cotton in cents per pound. Numbers in red denote record levels. Source: USDA-NASS and Office of the Chief Economist, February 2013

  19. High feed costs keep feed ratios at low levels Hogs Dairy and Broilers

  20. Livestock, dairy and poultry prices projected to increase in 2013 Prices in red denote record levels. Source: Office of the Chief Economist, February 2013

  21. Food CPI to rise in 2013 but likely to remain below levels in 2008 and 2011 ERS forecast: 3.0-4.0% for 2013

  22. Net cash income projected to fall in 2013, but remain high relative to historical levels Bil dollars

  23. Net cash income projected to fall for most crop producers $ thou Source: Economic Research Service

  24. Net cash income for livestock producers expected to decline in 2013 $ thou Source: Economic Research Service

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