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A Realistic View of Renewables Christine Risch

A Realistic View of Renewables Christine Risch. STaR Symposium October 22, 2013. Factors Affecting Utilization of Renewables. Weather. $/MWh. 60 hz. $/MW. $22/MWh. Electricity Generated with Renewables - All U.S . in 2012: MWh & Share (12%). Hydroelectric. Hydroelectric %.

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A Realistic View of Renewables Christine Risch

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  1. A Realistic View of RenewablesChristine Risch STaR Symposium October 22, 2013

  2. Factors Affecting Utilization of Renewables Weather $/MWh 60 hz $/MW $22/MWh

  3. Electricity Generated with Renewables - All U.S. in 2012: MWh & Share (12%) Hydroelectric Hydroelectric % Other Renewables (mostly wind) Other Renewables %

  4. Technical Issues • System Reliability – NERC says not much of an issue yet, but are concerned for expansion • Enabling technology – DR, energy storage, PEVs, etc. that increase flexibility • Managing Variability – forecasting output • Increased need for reserves; not a major issue now, but will become bigger • Increasing connectivity of balancing areas

  5. PJM Territory

  6. Institutional Issues • Cost Allocation: ISO-level transmission costs are absorbed uniformly by all loads regardless of the benefits received • Size of market: bigger is better, integrated markets share reserves and can better adjust for variability • Enabling grid services: demand for new types of flexible reserves with correct sub-hourly price signals • Market participation: supply of non-conventional services, e.g. DR, energy storage, PEVs • Mandates/Incentives: RPSs; $22/MWh PTC

  7. Economic Issues • Levelized cost of electricity ($/MWh) – renewables and fossil converging, but not only factor • Cost to get to market: perhaps $40-$70 billion of transmission expansion cost to satisfy existing state-level RPSs through 2025 (Brattle Group) • Integration Costs: are positive, possibly as low as $2 to $5/MWh for wind at up to 35% of MW • Wholesale price distortion due to PTC

  8. Where We Are • Renewable Energy is 12% of total annual electricity generated in the U.S. including hydro • Wind already > 20% annual energy in places: IA, SD. • Varies by region: Some utilities at >10% wind capacity as % of peak load, e.g. Xcel Energy • In some time periods wind as much as 50% of energy produced: Ireland, BPA. • NREL says can get to 80% renewables (w geothermal and biomass) if its suggestions are deployed • Base load resources are necessary because they are dispatchable; allow integration of variable resources

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