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This report provides an overview of recent rainfall patterns, current conditions, and predictions for the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on precipitation deficits, NCEP/GFS model forecasts, and the climatology of the monsoon region.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 03, 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts of central and northeastern Australia, as well as over Papua New Guinea. However, rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia, particularly in the northern region. Elsewhere, the rainfall situation is at or near normal levels. In the longer 180days term, severe deficits from last year remain over southern India and over central and eastern Australia. Unfortunately, for this region, very early NCEP CFS model forecasts of 2017 summer monsoon(JJAS) rainfall do not appear very promising either.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days rainfall deficits are found over western Australia, Japan and Papa New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels, particularly it is above over eastern coastal Australia, northeastern India, Bangladesh, and parts of southeastern China.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week,, generally positive rainfall anomalies are noted across the monsoon region. But, little or no rain fell over India, where pre-monsoon temperatures are getting very hot.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes 180 days deficit… Severe drought The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts of central and northeastern Australia, as well as over Papua New Guinea. However, rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia, particularly in the northern region. Elsewhere, the rainfall situation is at or near normal levels. In the longer 180days term, severe deficits from last year remain over southern India and over central and eastern Australia. Unfortunately, for this drought ridden Southern India, very early NCEP CFS model’s long lead forecasts of 2017 summer monsoon(JJAS) rainfall do not appear very promising either. For the past 30 days rainfall deficits are found over western Australia, Japan and Papa New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels, particularly it is above normal over eastern coastal Australia, northeastern India, Bangladesh, and parts of southeastern China. In this past week,, generally positive rainfall anomalies are noted across the monsoon region. But, little or no rain fell over India, where pre-monsoon temperatures are getting very hot. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting generally below to near normal rainfall over much of the monsoon region, except over parts of southeastern China and Australia. .
