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Global Sustainable Limits on Carbon Dioxide and Zinc Consumption

This document presents calculations on the global sustainable limiting rates of carbon dioxide and zinc production, aiming to stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels below 550 ppm by 2100. It explains the necessary reduction of anthropogenic emissions to 7-8 gigatons of carbon annually, with an equitable allocation of approximately 1 metric ton of carbon equivalents per person per year. Furthermore, it examines the disparity between current U.S. emissions rates and sustainable limits, highlights the potential for recycling as a resource base, and provides insights into sustainable zinc consumption.

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Global Sustainable Limits on Carbon Dioxide and Zinc Consumption

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  1. Sustainable Limit Calculations

  2. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1015 g (= 7 to 8 giga metric tons) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  3. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: • 2. Allocation of virgin material: • Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. • This translates to roughly 1 metric ton of C equivalents per person per year. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  4. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 3. Regional “re-captureable” resource base: Recycling of carbon in the form of permanent or semi-permanent sequestration may eventually possible through controversial techniques, not at the moment. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  5. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 4. Current consumption rate vs. sustainable limiting rate: The U.S. on average produced 5.5 metric tons of C equivalents per person (including emissions from land use change) in 2000, which is well beyond the global sustainable rate of 1 metric ton of C equivalents per person per year. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  6. Let’s calculate the sustainable limit for some other material, as well. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  7. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Zinc Consumption: 1. Virgin material supply limit:The reserve base for zinc in 1999 was 430 x 1012 g (430 Tg), so the virgin material supply limit over the next 50 years is 430 Tg / 50 years = 8.6 Tg/yr. 2. Allocation of virgin material:Allocating the available zinc equally among all the world’s population gives approximately 8.6 Tg/7.5 billions people = 1.15 kg/(person.yr) Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  8. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Zinc Consumption: 3. Regional “re-captureable” resource base:Assume 30% zinc recycling rate. And, if the system is in steady state and if 30% of the 1.15 kg/(person.yr) is recycled, then each person in the region actually has (1+0.3)(1.15) = 1.5 kg/(person.yr) of zinc available. 4. Current consumption rate vs. sustainable limiting rate:In 1999, the U.S. on average consumed 1.6 Tg for a population of 260 million people, which translates to a U.S. per capita zinc consumption of 6.2 kg/(person.yr). Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

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