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CEE Slide Bank

February 2012. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE THIS PRESENTATION EXTERNALLY AS IT IS CBRE’S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY & CONTAINS CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION DON’T DISTRIBUTE IN PDF EITHER. CEE Slide Bank. Guideline.

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CEE Slide Bank

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  1. February 2012 DO NOT DISTRIBUTE THIS PRESENTATION EXTERNALLY AS IT IS CBRE’S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY & CONTAINS CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION DON’T DISTRIBUTE IN PDF EITHER CEE Slide Bank

  2. Guideline • Please don’t use this presentation on its own but cut and paste slides into your local presentation • You can find some info on the notes page as well (currently only in the chapter on Economics) • We try to keep the slide bank updated – please let us know if some slides are outdated • If you think of new slides which might be useful for you – please share your ideas Thanks: CEE Research & Consultancy Team

  3. Content • CEE Property Investment • CEE Yields, Capital Values • CEE Economy • CEE Office Occupier Market • CEE Retail Market Overview • CEE Logistics Occupier Market

  4. 1. CEE Property Investment

  5. Property Investment Market Turnover in CEE ...with much stronger recovery still visible in CEE QrtAvg2006-2008: €3.0 bn Source: CBRE (Q3 2011figures throughend of August2011).

  6. CEE Property Investment by Country 2008 Total Size € 9.5Billion 2011 Total Size € 11.2Billion Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  7. CEE Investment Turnover by Sub-Region - Office Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  8. CEE Investment Turnover by Sub-Region – Retail Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  9. 2. CEE Yields, Capital Values

  10. CEE Prime Office Capital Value Movement Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  11. Office Capital Values Still room for improvement prime CVs in some CEE markets compared to peak of the market Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  12. German Government Bond vs. Prime Office Yields Yield gap prime Central European property as interesting as last seen in 2003/2004 ! Q2 ‘03 – 530 bps Prime yields in Q4 2011 Warsaw: 6.25% Prague: 6.50% Bratislava: 7.25% Budapest: 7.25% Real Estate Risk Premium Central Europe Q2 ‘07- 105bps Q4 ‘11 475 bps Q2 ‘11 362 bps Real Estate Risk Premium EU-15 “Risk-Free” Rate Source: Reuters, CBRE (January 2012).

  13. CEE Weighted Average Prime Office Yields (%) Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  14. CEE Prime Yields - Office Source: CBRE

  15. CEE Prime Yields - Retail Source: CBRE

  16. CEE Prime Yields - Industrial Source: CBRE

  17. 3. CEE Economy

  18. GDP Outlook Source: Oxford Economics (December 2011).

  19. GDP Outlook Significant downside risks to growth exist in CZ, SK and RO as “2009” has shown Source: Oxford Economics (December 2011).

  20. 10 YearGovernment Bond Yields ... especially for Hungary this is resulting in dangerous spreads Sources: Eurostat / Macrobond (January 2012)

  21. CEE Unemployment Rates / Average Monthly Wage Unemployment rates only slowly going down in most markets Source: UniCredit Group, CEE Quarterly Q1/2012(2011 data estimated, 2012 data forecast).

  22. Gross Government Debt … since debt levels increased across the board 145% Sources: Eurostat (based on last update from 20.12.2011). Eurozone average unweighted. *Bulgaria’s gross debt decreased since 2005.

  23. Budget Deficitsacross Europe State financesslowly improving, however, further fiscal consolidation needed CEE Source: Eurostat (May 2011).

  24. CEE Retail Trade Turnover Generally consumer spending is not really picking up yet; PL continues outperformance Source: Eurostat (May 2011).

  25. 4. CEE Office Occupier Market

  26. CEE Take-up by City -30% -21% -22% Source: CBRE (January 2012). Does not include lease renewals. Excludes Eastern Europe .

  27. Development vs Net Absorption& Vacancy Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  28. CEE Office Deliveries and Pipeline (U/C) Lack of financing affecting pipeline U/C Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  29. CEE Vacancy v Pipeline Most markets above 10% vacancy; pipeline U/C low and/or declining “HIGH”Vacancy “HIGH”Pipeline Current Vacancy “LOW”Vacancy “LOW”Pipeline Source: CBRE (January 2012).

  30. EMEA Office Market Rent Cycles: Q4 2011 As of 31st December 2011 Source: CBRE NB. Markets do not necessarily move along the curve in the same direction or at the same speed. The rental cycle is intended to display the trend in net effective rents.

  31. Relationship Prime Rent and Vacancy Most markets still tenant friendly; Warsaw being exception Prime rents Moscow Current:Euro 923 per sqm / year From trough: +41% Source: CBRE (January 2012). Vacancy levels and prime rents at every quarter end since Q1 2008 through Q4 2011.

  32. 5. CEE Retail Market Overview

  33. Retaildensityvs GDP per capita Source: CBRE (January 2012)

  34. CEE Shopping Centre Stock and Pipeline (U/C) Poland clearly largest market with 9 mn sqm stock – Romania quickly catching up with Czech Source: CBRE(January 2012).

  35. CEE Retail Trade Turnover Especially SEE took big hit on consumer spending; PL outperforming Source: Eurostat (February 2012).

  36. Retail Density in CEE Cities Source: CB Richard Ellis, National census (May 2011). Densities not necessarily representing actual catchment of cities / schemes. Densities calculated based on administrative borders and are provided as an indication only!

  37. CEE Shopping Centre Prime Rents Sources: CBRE (February 2012). Base rent only – no turnover rent included.

  38. January 2012 With queries and comments please contact us: Eva SindelarovaJos Tromp CEE Slide Bank

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