CLIC Support To Analysis Fundamentals

1. CLIC Support To Analysis Fundamentals Date: 090908 CLIC Support To Analysis Fundamentals (MCIS) 090908 Slide 1

2. Overview Overview • Analytical process • Analytical steps • Evaluate information of immediate tactical value • Analysis pitfalls and tips

3. Analysis and the Intel Functions • Intelligence sections carry out 6 functions: • Support commander’s estimate • Situation development • Provide I&W • Support force protection • Targeting • Combat assessment

4. Analysis and Intel Cycle • Planning and Direction • Collection • Processing • Production • Dissemination • Utilization Analysis is vital for EVERYTHING

5. Analysis Steps • Filtering • Recording • Evaluating

6. Filtering • Filtering Criteria • Subject matter • Location • Time of occurrence • Redundancy • Methodology • Manual filtering • Automated filtering

7. Recording • Methodology • Registering all incoming information. • Logging, map or chart marking, filing and indexing, or entering information in the data base of an automated system. • Maintaining a system designed for rapid and efficient operations. • Recording Tools • Intelligence journal • Enemy situation map • Intelligence workbook • Order of battle or analyst files • Target files.

8. Evaluating • Relevance – Area, time, and content • Source Reliability – Source reliability, multiple asset/source reporting • Information Accuracy – Probability of truth • Reliability & Accuracy use standard rating system RELIABILITY A - Completely reliable B - Usually reliable C - Fairly reliable D - Not usually reliable E - Unreliable F - Reliability cannot be judged ACCURACY 1 - Confirmed by other sources 2 - Probably true 3 - Possibly true 4 - Doubtfully true 5 - Improbable 6 - Truth cannot be judged

9. Principles for Preparing Information for Analysis • Identify information of immediate tactical value • Eliminate redundant and irrelevant data early • Identify relevance to ongoing production • Practice SOPs • Use reliable and accessible recording tools

10. Identify Information of Immediate Tactical Value • Pay attention to: • Alarms • Triggers • High Payoff Targets • Initiate immediate production of relevant information • Rapid evaluation, analysis, and dissemination required

11. Eliminate Redundant & Irrelevant Data • Scrutinize for pertinence • Provides useful information • Reduces unnecessary reporting and repetitive reporting

12. Identify Relevance • How does the information contribute to ongoing production? • Who gets the information? • How urgent is the information? • What is the production format?

13. Practice SOPs • Information handling SOPs save time and effort • SOPs • Speeds preparation of information • Provide consistency in handling • Enhances comprehension • Methods: • Filtering • Collating • Recording • Evaluating

14. Employ Recording Tools • Recording should be simple and flexible • Allows for easy: • Access • Recall • Manipulation of stream of data entering command • AIS enhances speed & utility of tools

15. Analytical Process • Intelligence personnel conduct: • Analysis • Synthesis • Estimation • To support the Commander’s decision making process.

16. Analysis • Analysis is a process that: • Establishes IRs • Studies information and available intelligence • Determines the threat’s: • Capabilities • Vulnerabilities • Intentions • COAs

17. Synthesis • Piecing of information into a coherent, meaningful picture. • Pulls information together • Determines relationships that exist among the information • Allows visualization of the battlespace as a whole to discern patterns & indicators

18. Estimation • Last step, most challenging • Involves a high degree of risk • Analysts must employ • Experience • Judgment • Intelligence tools & methodologies

19. Analytical Problem Solving • Application of reason and logic to solve problems related to the effects of: • Weather • Terrain • Threat • During fast-paced, tactical-level operations, the entire analyze-synthesize-estimate process may occur mentally within a matter of seconds. • At higher levels, the process may be more involved

20. Analytical Theories • Proposition (or premise) - a combination of evidence and assumptions, can be: • Detailed or abstract • Observable or inferable • Certainty & fuzziness • A Priori • Probabilities, in the absence of other information

21. Applied Logic • Analysis involves drawing reliable conclusions based on facts, opinions, inferences, and reasoning. • Facts – Demonstrated to be true • Opinions – Conclusions drawn when sufficient evidence is not available, thought to be true • Inferences – Conclusions drawn from facts or evidence • When presenting the conclusion, you must distinguish between fact and opinion

22. Reasoning • The mental process brought to bear on facts, opinions, and inferences. • Deductive • Inductive EXAMPLE: All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Socrates is mortal. EXAMPLE: Every vehicle with a handicapped license I’ve been behind drives slowly. Handicapped people drive slowly

23. Pitfalls of Analysis • Application of logic and reasoning is a mental process subject to numerous influences • These influences are known as pitfalls • Analysts must recognize influences in their work and other’s work • Barriers or obstacles to accurate analysis • Logical fallacies • Biases

24. Pitfalls of AnalysisLogical Fallacies • Logical fallacies are errors in the reasoning process • Usually accidental • Sometimes deliberate to • Persuade • Convince • Deceive • Two categories • Omission • Assumption

25. Pitfalls of AnalysisBiases • Bias is a subjective viewpoint – a preconceived notion • Generally have a detrimental impact • Beware of biases and their influence • Cultural (mirror-imaging) • Organizational (groupthink) • Personal • Cognitive (perception, memory, judgment, and reasoning, as contrasted with emotional and volitional processes)

26. Tips • “If you don’t know the answer, know where to get it.” • The more valid information you have, the better your analysis

27. Questions?? ________________________________________ <<author>> Marine Corps Intelligence Schools Company Level Intelligence Cell – <<author billet>> <<author email>><<author tel>> https://www.intranet.tecom.usmc.mil/sites/MCIS/FocusAreas/CIC/default.aspx Introdcution to Intelligence (MCIS) 081118 Analysis Fundamentals (MCIS) 081118