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Balance of payments and related statistics: a European perspective

This presentation provides an overview of the European Central Bank's monetary policy, macroeconomic oversight, and the relationship between balance of payments and international investment position. It also discusses the monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances and the importance of statistics in the Euro area.

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Balance of payments and related statistics: a European perspective

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  1. Balance of payments and related statistics:a European perspective Rodrigo Oliveira-Soares Dublin, 23 February 2012 The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

  2. Outline • Introduction • ECB Monetary policy • Monitoring macroeconomic imbalances • Macroeconomic oversight • Euro area statistics

  3. Introduction "a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty." Wilson Allen Wallis (1912–1998), US economist and statistician.

  4. Monetary policy of the ECB

  5. Monetary policy of the ECB Relationship between balance of payments and international investment position

  6. Monetary policy of the ECB Euro area as a whole • Risks to price stability • Flows affecting monetary conditions and exchange rate markets • Macroeconomic projections • Quarterly sector accounts

  7. Monetary policy of the ECB Euro area as a whole • Balance of payments • Monthly • Quarterly vs. main counterparts • International investment position • Quarterly • Annual vs. main counterparts • Data in public data warehouse http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/

  8. Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances Current-account balances, euro-area Member States (as % of GDP) – Surplus and deficit countries Source: European Commission

  9. Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances Source: European Commission

  10. Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances Improve EU economic governance • Alert mechanism to prevent and correct imbalances. Early warning system based on 10 economic indicators of competitiveness, among which: • Current account balance • Net international investment position • Export market shares of goods and services

  11. Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system

  12. Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system Independent EU body • reduce systemic risks to financial stability • avoid financial distress • smooth functioning of the internal market Set of indicators (White Book), including: • Current account balance • Gross external debt • Net interest payments

  13. Statistics for the euro area as a whole • How do we gather statistics? • Transactions and positions with non-residents (“extra”) • 17 countries + ECB own accounts • ECB Guideline and Recommendation • Portfolio investment • security-by-security • centralised database

  14. Statistics for the euro area as a whole Implementation of new standards by 2014 • Timely quarterly statistics • Consistency with national accounts • Relevance of the international investment position • Financial intermediaries • Investment fund shares • Listed / non-listed equity

  15. Thank you for your attention Questions?

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