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Future Directions for U.S. Immigration Policy on Less-Skilled Workers

This reflection addresses the current landscape of U.S. immigration policy concerning less-skilled workers. It discusses the contributions of more-educated versus less-educated immigrants, analyzing the costs and benefits of unskilled immigration on native-born Americans. It evaluates the potential impacts of changes in legal status and labor market dynamics, the influence of immigrant upgrading on the economy, and whether the flow of unskilled immigrants should be increased or decreased. The text emphasizes the need for comprehensive immigration reforms that include creating incentives for paths to legal status and employment-based adjustments.

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Future Directions for U.S. Immigration Policy on Less-Skilled Workers

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  1. Immigration Policy and Less-Skilled Workers in the US: Some Reflections and Future Directions for Reform Harry J. Holzer January 2011

  2. More- v. Less-Educated Immigrants • Little Doubt about Contributions of More-Educated Immigrants to Native-Born Americans and the US Economy • What about Less-Educated??? Ratios of Benefits to Costs, How They Might Change, and Implications for Reform Policy

  3. General Goals and Major Questions (Cont’d) Questions: • Costs and Benefits of Current Flow of Unskilled, and to Whom Do They Accrue? • Would Costs and Benefits Change with Shift in Legal Status and Categories? • Effects of Immigrant Upgrading on US Economy and Native-Born?

  4. Costs of Unskilled Immigration:Competition for NB Less-Educated • Research by David Card, George Borjas, and others: Modest Negative Impacts on NB • Why are these impacts so modest? Product Demand, Imperfect Substitution for NB, Effects on Production Techniques • In Their Absence: What Kinds of New Labor Market Equilibria would Emerge? Disruptions of Reducing Flow in Short Run, Adjustments Over Time • Fiscal Effects as Well...Short-Run v. Long-Run, Federal v. State/Local

  5. Benefits to the US Economy • Employer Surplus • Consumer Benefits (P. Cortes) – Understated? For Whom? Not Just High-Income Consumers! • Labor Supply of Highly-Educated Women • Economic Dynamism and Efficiency

  6. Punchline: Too Many or Too Few Unskilled Immigrants in US? • Not a Clear Case Either Way! • Future Effects of Baby Boomer Retirements: Doesn’t Greatly Change the Picture (Though Costs of Unskilled Immigration Will Likely Diminish and Benefits Rise) • Desire to Upgrade Education and Skills of US Citizens v. Immigrants Providing Low-Skilled Labor: Conflict? Not necessarily…

  7. Costs and Benefits: Vary with Immigrant Category • Legal v. Illegal • Employment-Based: Greater Ability to Adjust to Economic Changes • So: Create Incentives for Illegal Immigrants and Employers to Shift to Legal/Temporary Modes that are Employment-Based; Requires Opportunities for Permanence

  8. Policy Implications Support for Comprehensive Immigration! But With Some Amendments: • Guest Workers: Ability to Switch Jobs, Option of Permanent Residence (Provisional Visa?) • Fees for Guest Workers • Macroeconomic Adjustments to Numbers Admitted • State-Level Variation and Flexibility?

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