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Robert Wilby Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling Loughborough University

Robert Wilby Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling Loughborough University. Ethics Working Group Burleigh Court, Loughborough University, 12-13 June 2014. Who am I?. Geographer (who can count) PhD Climate Change and the Recovery of Acidified C atchments (1991)

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Robert Wilby Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling Loughborough University

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  1. Robert Wilby Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling Loughborough University Ethics Working Group Burleigh Court, Loughborough University, 12-13 June 2014

  2. Who am I? • Geographer (who can count) • PhD Climate Change and the Recovery of Acidified Catchments (1991) • 10 different jobs in last 25 years • Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling at Loughborough University, UK (2008-) • Pragmatic about use of climate science to achieve positive outcomes for human development and freshwater environments • Thrives on in-country research and capacity support A bloke with poor taste in T-shirts ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  3. Research into uncertainty (hydrology) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  4. A proto quantification of uncertainty elements GCM Downscaling Emissions Structure Parameters All combined Conditional probabilities of lower summer flows in the River Thames by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Source: Wilby and Harris (2006) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  5. Climate science into practice ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  6. Sometimes taking a very very long-term view Phase 1 : Consent, design, construction (~10 years) Phase 2 : Operational power plant (~60 years) Phase 3 : Decommissioning (~20 years) Phase 4 : Storage of spent fuel (~80 years) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  7. Favourite paper…because… Hallegatte (2009) Global Environmental Change, 19, 240–247 ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  8. Practical steps can be taken despite uncertainty ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  9. Tools to support adaptation decisions (1) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  10. Tools to support adaptation decisions (2) Screen shot from Google Earth tool demonstrating VU93 metrics in Dhamar, Yemen. ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  11. Tools to support adaptation decisions (3) Cross-validated model forecasts with lead-time one month (Q1) compared with long-term monthly mean discharge (the Zero Order Forecast). Source: Dixon and Wilby (submitted) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  12. Helping to build capacity (climate services) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  13. Lest we forget the importance of observations Thermal ‘shockwave’ in the River Dove 28 June 2012 Loughborough University TEmperature Network (LUTEN) http://www.luten.org.uk/home ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

  14. Avoiding ‘climate exceptionalism’ Hydrology class Shanghai-style ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

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