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Access and Success: Why They’re Important and Where We Fail

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251. Access and Success: Why They’re Important and Where We Fail. Dennis P. Jones Presented to the Joint Policy Summit – Cincinnati, Ohio February 23, 2006.

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Access and Success: Why They’re Important and Where We Fail

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  1. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251 Access and Success: Why They’re Important and Where We Fail Dennis P. Jones Presented to the Joint Policy Summit – Cincinnati, Ohio February 23, 2006

  2. Characteristics of an Attractive/Competitive State • Strong Economy • High Per Capita Income • High-Wage Jobs • Low Unemployment • Low Levels of Poverty • Good Quality of Life • Safe Environment—Low Crime Rate • Healthy Population • Highly Educated Population

  3. Public Private Increased Tax Revenues Greater Productivity Increased Consumption Increased Workforce Flexibility Decreased Reliance on Government Financial Support Reduced Crime Rates Increased Charitable Giving/Community Service Increased Quality of Civic Life Social Cohesion/Appreciation of Diversity Improved Ability to Adapt to and Use Technology Higher Salaries and Benefits Employment Higher Savings Levels Improved Working Conditions Personal/Professional Mobility Improved Health/Life Expectancy Improved Quality of Life for Offspring Better Consumer Decisionmaking Increased Personal Status More Hobbies, Leisure Activities Economic Social The Array of Higher Education Benefits Source: Reaping the Benefits: Defining the Public and Private Value of Going to College.Washington, DC: Institute for Higher Education Policy.

  4. CT CT 28,766 28,766 NJ R2 = .6348 MA MA MD CO VA NH NY DE MN IL WA CA CA AK MI MI Per Capita Income NV NV RI FL HI WI GA OH OR PA VT KS IN NC NC AZ MO IA TX NE ME TN WY WY SC AL UT KY ID ND OK SD NM MT AR LA WV MS 15,853 15,853 14.8 14.8 33.2 Percent with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Personal Income by State, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  5. 139.3 100.0 94.6 92.4 81.8 80.5 75.1 71.4 Ohio Iowa Utah Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Kansas Oregon Virginia Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Michigan Alabama Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Minnesota Oklahoma Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico North Dakota West Virginia Rhode Island Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Per Capita Personal Income—State Values as a Proportion of U.S., 2001 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003

  6. Ohio Per Capita Income as a Percent of the U.S., 1960-2000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  7. Kentucky Per Capita Income as a Percent of the U.S., 1960-2000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. $22,400 to $31,600 $19,500 to $22,400 $17,300 to $19,500 $14,800 to $17,300 $13,700 to $14,800 Ohio Per Capita Personal Income, 2000 Ohio = $21,003 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  9. $19,170 to $25,374 $16,816 to $19,170 $14,214 to $16,816 $11,585 to $14,214 $9,716 to $11,585 Kentucky Per Capita Personal Income, 2000 Kentucky = $18,093 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  10. 30 MN NH VT R2 = .69 UT HI MA ND 15 CT WI IA ME NE CO RI WA KS NJ SD VA ID OR CA PA AZ AK OH MT State Health Index—United Health Foundation WY IL NY 0 IN US DE MI MD TX MO NV NM KY OK NC FL WV AL GA AR SC TN - - 15 MS LA Percent of Adults 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher - - 30 10% 20% 30% 40% Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Health Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation

  11. South Carolina North Carolina West Virginia New Mexico Tennessee Mississippi Louisiana Oklahoma Kentucky Arkansas Maryland Delaware Alabama Missouri Georgia Nevada Florida Indiana Texas Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Kansas Virginia Arizona Oregon Vermont Montana Michigan Colorado Wyoming California Nebraska New York Wisconsin Minnesota New Jersey Washington Connecticut North Dakota Rhode Island Pennsylvania South Dakota Massachusetts New Hampshire Index Scores on State Health Rankings, 2004 Source: United Health Foundation—State Health Rankings 2004

  12. 37.1 27.0 26.5 23.3 20.1 18.8 18.2 16.5 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Virginia Oregon Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Connecticut Washington New Mexico Rhode Island North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  13. 71.3 63.3 62.3 61.6 58.2 57.3 56.9 51.3 Iowa Utah Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Oregon Kansas Virginia Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Wyoming Maryland Kentucky Arkansas Delaware California Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico North Dakota West Virginia Rhode Island Pennsylvania South Dakota United States North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Percent of Civilian Population (Age 16 and Older) Participating in the Workforce, 2003 Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics

  14. In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce NumberPercentNumberPercent Less than High School High School Diploma or GED Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree 416,521 55.7 331,563 44.3 1,568,327 74.8 528,632 25.2 1,029,184 81.2 238,925 18.8 351,665 85.6 59,052 14.4 768,249 86.2 122,747 13.8 421,787 89.1 51,636 10.9 Ohio Civilians Age 25-64 in the Workforce by Education Attainment, 2000 Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, Louisiana Population Center; www.ipums.org

  15. In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce NumberPercentNumberPercent Less than High School High School Diploma or GED Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree 209,024 47.6 229,845 52.4 534,662 71.3 214,864 28.7 335,466 79.1 88,680 20.9 99,713 83.3 20,014 16.7 205,687 85.5 34,841 14.5 137,087 87.3 19,890 12.7 Kentucky Civilians Age 25-64 in the Workforce by Education Attainment, 2000 Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, Louisiana Population Center; www.ipums.org

  16. Context Demography and Economy

  17. Pennsylvania West Virginia Kentucky New York Michigan Ohio Iowa Utah Idaho Maine Texas Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Virginia Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Oregon Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Colorado Maryland Wyoming Delaware California Nebraska Arkansas Oklahoma Wisconsin Minnesota Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico North Dakota Rhode Island South Dakota United States North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Projections of Working-Age Population (Ages 18‑64)—Percent Change, 2000-25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  18. South Carolina North Carolina South Dakota Pennsylvania North Dakota Rhode Island West Virginia Mississippi Minnesota Wisconsin Arkansas Kentucky Nebraska Michigan Montana Vermont Indiana Ohio Utah Iowa Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Kansas Virginia Arizona Nevada Oregon Georgia Missouri Alabama Colorado Maryland Wyoming California Delaware New York Oklahoma Louisiana Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico United States Massachusetts New Hampshire Projected Population Age 18-24—Percent Change, 2000-25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  19. Massachusetts South Carolina North Carolina South Dakota Pennsylvania North Dakota Rhode Island West Virginia Tennessee Louisiana Mississippi Minnesota Wisconsin Oklahoma Arkansas Kentucky New York Nebraska Delaware Colorado Michigan Alabama Vermont Missouri Georgia Nevada Arizona Indiana Florida Illinois Maine Ohio Iowa Utah Idaho Texas Hawaii Alaska Virginia Kansas Oregon Montana Maryland Wyoming California Washington New Jersey Connecticut New Mexico United States New Hampshire Projected Population Age 25-44—Percent Change, 2000-25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  20. Percent Change,2000-10 Percent Change,2010-20 White Black Total 0-17 0-17 18-24 18-24 25-44 25-44 45-64 45-64 65+ 65+ Percent Change in Population by Race and Age—Ohio Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  21. White Black Total Percent Change,2000-10 Percent Change,2010-20 0-17 0-17 18-24 18-24 25-44 25-44 45-64 45-64 65+ 65+ Percent Change in Population by Race and Age—Kentucky Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  22. 45.3 34.5 33.8 30.3 24.5 24.1 23.0 21.7 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Maine Texas Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Virginia Oregon Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico Rhode Island West Virginia North Dakota Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census 2000

  23. 37.1 27.0 26.5 23.3 20.1 18.8 18.2 16.5 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Virginia Oregon Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Connecticut Washington New Mexico Rhode Island North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

  24. Percent of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) with College Degrees—Ohio, Kentucky, U.S. Average, and OECD Countries Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; OECD Education at a Glance

  25. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female 2.5 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 Top Country (Canada) 1.0 1.5 US Index = 0.77 0.8 Top Country (Norway) 1.0 0.6 US Index = 0.86 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Ohio Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Age 25-34—Indexed to Top Country Percent with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Percent with Associate Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

  26. Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander White African-American Hispanic/Latino Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female 2.5 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 Top Country (Canada) 1.0 1.5 US Index = 0.77 0.8 Top Country (Norway) 1.0 0.6 US Index = 0.86 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Kentucky Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, Age 25-34—Indexed to Top Country Percent with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Percent with Associate Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on 2000 Census); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

  27. 76.8 87.3 7.0 23.3 8.0 Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Ohio, 2000 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  28. 74.9 79.7 5.7 18.8 7.5 Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Kentucky, 2000 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  29. MS WV UT ND CO MA Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64—Ohio Residents Compared to U.S. Average and Top State, 2000 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  30. MS WV UT ND CO MA Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64—Kentucky Residents Compared to U.S. Average and Top State, 2000 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  31. 22.4 20.8 20.3 19.1 16.1 12.7 12.4 7.6 Ohio Utah Iowa Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Virginia Oregon Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Arkansas Wyoming California Delaware Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico West Virginia Rhode Island North Dakota Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Percent of Population Age 25-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

  32. Ashtabula Lake Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Wood Erie Sandusky Defiance Henry Trumbull Lorain Portage Huron Summit Paulding Seneca Medina Putnam Mahoning Hancock Ashland Crawford Van Wert Wayne Wyandot Stark Columbiana Allen Richland Hardin Carroll Auglaize Marion Holmes Mercer Morrow Tuscarawas Knox Logan Jefferson Shelby Union Coshocton Harrison Delaware Champaign Darke Licking Miami Guernsey Belmont Franklin Muskingum Clark Madison Montgomery Noble Fairfield Preble Greene Monroe Perry Pickaway Morgan Fayette Hocking Butler Washington Warren Clinton 7 .1% to 13 .8% Ross Athens Vinton 13 .8% to 16 .8% Highland Hamilton Meigs Pike 16 .8% to 19 .7% Jackson Clermont 19 .7% to 25 .2% Brown Adams Gallia Scioto 25 .2% to 48 .5% Lawrence Percent of Adult Population in Ohio with Less than a High School Diploma, 2000 Ohio = 17.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  33. 13 .5% to 20 .8% 20 .8% to 26 .9% 26 .9% to 38 .2% 38 .2% to 44 .0% 44 .0% to 50 .8% Percent of Adult Population in Kentucky with Less than a High School Diploma, 2000 Kentucky = 25.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

  34. Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S.—Ohio Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.doc.gov

  35. Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S.—Kentucky Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.doc.gov

  36. 41.3 33.6 33.1 31.0 29.9 28.7 27.7 25.7 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Oregon Virginia Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico North Dakota Rhode Island West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Percent Employment in Managerial and Professional Occupations Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  37. 12.6 9.7 8.8 8.3 8.0 6.5 5.6 2.4 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Oregon Virginia Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Nebraska Louisiana New York Oklahoma Wisconsin Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico North Dakota Rhode Island West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Employment in High-Technology Establishments as Share of Total Employment by State, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau—Standard Statistical Establishment List, special tabulations, and County Business Patterns

  38. Median Earnings by Degree Level—Ohio Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files

  39. Median Earnings by Degree Level—Kentucky Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files

  40. 10,400 8,000 7,200 7,000 7,000 6,800 5,400 4,000 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Virginia Kansas Oregon Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming California Arkansas Delaware Louisiana New York Nebraska Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Connecticut Washington New Mexico North Dakota Rhode Island West Virginia Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associate Degree, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Samples, based on 2000 census

  41. 19,000 15,200 14,000 13,000 11,400 11,000 10,800 7,600 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Illinois Alaska Hawaii Florida Indiana Virginia Oregon Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Wyoming Kentucky Arkansas California Louisiana Delaware Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico Rhode Island West Virginia North Dakota Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a Bachelor’s Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Samples, based on 2000 census

  42. The Education Pipeline

  43. Key Transition Points in the Education Pipeline • Complete High School • Enter College • Finish College • Enter the Workplace

  44. Student Pipeline, 2002—Ohio Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2002 Residency and Migration Survey, ACT Institutional Survey, NCES IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

  45. Student Pipeline, 2002—Kentucky Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2002 Residency and Migration Survey, ACT Institutional Survey, NCES IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

  46. Percent of Racial/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline, 2002—Ohio Source: U.S. Census Bureau; WICHE High School Graduates; NCES College Participation and Completion

  47. Percent of Racial/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline, 2002—Kentucky Source: U.S. Census Bureau; WICHE High School Graduates; NCES College Participation and Completion

  48. 86.1 73.6 69.6 67.4 67.1 65.8 56.2 51.0 Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Maine Texas Illinois Hawaii Alaska Florida Indiana Virginia Oregon Kansas Arizona Nevada Georgia Missouri Vermont Montana Alabama Michigan Colorado Maryland Kentucky Wyoming Arkansas California Delaware Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Oklahoma Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico West Virginia Rhode Island North Dakota Pennsylvania United States South Dakota North Carolina South Carolina Massachusetts New Hampshire High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2000 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity

  49. Ohio Public High School Graduate Projections to 2018 by Race/Ethnicity Source: WICHE High School Graduate Projections

  50. 50

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