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Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine! Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age Moscow/16February2004. Slides at … tompeters.com. I. NEW BUSINESS. NEW CONTEXT. All Bets Are Off. Jobs Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security.
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Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine!Business Excellence in a Disruptive AgeMoscow/16February2004
“Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.”–Anthony Muh,head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.”—General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army
“14MILLION service jobs are in danger of being shipped overseas”—The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB study
“One Singaporean workercosts as much as …3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03
“The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped workers in the face.” —Joseph Schumpeter
The Gales of Creative Destruction+29M = -44M + 73M+4M = +4M - 0M
“There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore.”—Carly Fiorina/ HP/ 01.08.2004
In Store: International Equality, Intranational Inequality“The new organization of society implied by the triumph of individual autonomy and the true equalization of opportunity based upon merit will lead to very great rewards for merit and great individual autonomy. This will leave individuals far more responsible for themselves than they have been accustomed to being during the industrial period. It will also reduce the unearned advantage in living standards that has been enjoyed by residents of advanced industrial societies throughout the 20th century.”James Davidson & William Rees-Mogg,The Sovereign Individual
“WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH THEMSELVES?”—Headline/ Fortune/ 11.03 (“We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity rather than anxiety.”)
<1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s2000: 10 years for paradigm shift21st century: 1000Xtech change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)Ray Kurzweil
“In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]
“A California biotechnology company has put the entire sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing researchers to conduct on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a human being in a single experiment.”—Page 1, Financial Times/10.03.2003
“The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people.”—Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004
“Asia’s rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and, subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end.” —Financial Times (09.22.2003)
“The World Must Learn to Live with a Wide-awake China”—Headline/FT/11.03
“China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goods—and the rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. … China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it represents an even greater opportunity via production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become the new engine of global growth.”Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private employ.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
200 cities with >1,000,000 population.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%: DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs, PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13% (2X since1991)Source: New York Times/12.14.2003
The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first CenturyRobert Cooper (as interpreted by Tom Peters)
“This is a dangerous world and it is going to become more dangerous.”“We may not be interested in chaos but chaos is interested in us.”Source: Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“The new century risks being overrun by both anarchy and technology. The two great destroyers of history may reinforce each other. Both the spread of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction point to a world in which Western governments are losing control. The spread of the technology of mass destruction represents a potentially massive redistribution of power away from the advanced industrial (and democratic) states and toward smaller states that may be less stable and have less of a stake in an orderly world; or more dramatically still, it may represent a redistribution of power away from the state itself and towards individuals, that is to say terrorists or criminals. In the past to be damaging, an ideological movement had to be widespread to recruit enough support to take on authority. Henceforth, comparatively small groups will be able to do the sort of damage which before only state armies or major revolutionary movements could achieve. A few fanatics with a ‘dirty bomb’ or biological weapons will be able to cause death on a scale not previously envisaged. … Emancipation, diversity, global communication—all of the things that promise an age of riches and creativity—could also bring a nightmare in which states lose control of the means of violence and people lose control of their futures.”—Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“Before we can talk about the security requirements for today and tomorrow, we have to forget the security rules of yesterday.”—Robert Cooper,The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century
“IT MAY SOMEDAY BE SAID THAT THE 21ST CENTURY BEGAN ON SEPTEMBER 11, 2001. …“Al-Qaeda represents a new and profoundly dangerous kind of organization—one that might be called a ‘virtual state.’ On September 11 a virtual state proved that modern societies are vulnerable as never before.”—Time/09.09.2002
From: Weapon v. WeaponTo:Org structure v. Org structure
“Our military structure today is essentially one developed and designed by Napoleon.”Admiral Bill Owens, former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
“The organizations we created have become tyrants. They have taken control, holding us fettered, creating barriers that hinder rather than help our businesses. The lines that we drew on our neat organizational diagrams have turned into walls that no one can scale or penetrate or even peer over.”—Frank Lekanne Deprez & René Tissen, Zero Space: Moving Beyond Organizational Limits.
“The mechanical speed of combat vehicles has not increased since Rommel’s day, so the difference is all in the operational speed, faster communications and faster decisions.”—Edward Luttwak, on the unprecedented pace of the move toward Baghdad
Eric’s ArmyFlat.Fast.Agile.Adaptable.Light … But Lethal.Talent/ “I Am an Army of One.”Info-intense.Network-centric.
Successful Businesses’ Dozen Truths: TP’s 30-Year Perspective1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent.2. Disrespect for Tradition.3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do.4. Utter Disbelief at the Bullshit that Marks “Normal Industry Behavior.”5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution … and Utter Contempt for Those Who Don’t “Get It.”6. Speed Demons.7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge.)8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy.9. Willingness to Lead the Customer … and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers.)10. “Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes.” 11. Courage to Stand Alone on One’s Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom.12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Brand Power.
It is the foremost task—and responsibility—of our generation to re-imagine our enterprises, private and public.—from the Foreword, Re-imagine
“How we feel about the evolving future tells us who we are as individuals and as a civilization: Do we search for stasis—a regulated, engineered world? Or do we embrace dynamism—a world of constant creation, discovery and competition? Do we value stability and control? Or evolution and learning? Do we think that progress requires a central blueprint? Or do we see it as a decentralized, evolutionary process? Do we see mistakes as permanent disasters? Or the correctable byproducts of experimentation? Do we crave predictability? Or relish surprise? These two poles, stasis and dynamism, increasingly define our political, intellectual and cultural landscape.” —Virginia Postrel, The Future and Its Enemies
“It is generally much easier to kill an organization than change it substantially.” Kevin Kelly, Out of Control
“Wealth in this new regime flows directly from innovation, not optimization. That is, wealth is not gained by perfecting the known, but by imperfectly seizing the unknown.”Kevin Kelly, New Rules for the New Economy
Forbes100 from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’17 were alive in ’87; 18 in ’87 F100; 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market 1917 to 1987.S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the Class of ’57 were alive in ’97; 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997.Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market
