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1. Geog 2101: China University of Hong Kong
Fall Semester
Session No. 1
Sept. 2, 2011
2. Jack F. Williams
Michigan State University THE RISE OF CHINA: THE ROAD TO SUPERPOWERDOM?
3. Two Images of China:Which is the REAL China?
4. The Rise of China What is a superpower?
What factors warrant calling a nation a superpower?
How many superpowers are there today?
Is China a true superpower?
5. What Constitutes a Good Country?100 Best Countries of the World 1 Finland
9 Japan
11 USA
15 South Korea
20 Singapore
59 - China
(Newsweek, Aug. 23, 2010) Not ranked: Hong Kong, Taiwan
6. Most Dynamic Economies (Populous Nations) 1 - USA
2 - United Kingdom
3 - Japan
4 - China
(Newsweek, 2010)
7. Is this to be the Chinese Century? Comparison with the Japanese Century
(20th century)
9. The Worlds Ambivalence Toward China The legacy of the Maoist Era
Is Chinas rise in the post-Mao Era truly peaceful, benign?
What really are Chinas long-term intentions, goals?
Can China be trusted?
10. Examining Modern China:Critical Eras Traditional China (antiquity to 19th c.)
Colonial Era (Century of Humiliation)
(1840s-1949)
Peoples Republic of China (PRC) (1949-present)
Maoist Era (1949-1976)
Reform (post-Mao) Era
(1976 to present)
11. China Under Mao 1949 Peoples Republic of China (PRC) established
ROC fled to Taiwan
1949-1976: The Maoist Era
Goals:
Socialism
The New China
Autarky (self-reliance)
12. Maoist Era Scorecard: Disaster Hunger, isolation,
falling behind
13. The Post-Mao (Reform) Era(1976 to present) Regional (External) Goals:
Security
(Maintaining the territorial
integrity of China)
Hegemony in Asia
Restoration of Chinas
place in the sun
14. The Post-Mao Era Internal Goals:
Economic growth
JOBS!
Industrialization
Feeding China
Stability
15. China: Superpower Indices How to measure superpowerdom?
GDP
Economic growth rate
Output of key commodities
Trade and investment
Military strength
Role in key international organizations
Soft power
16. (1) Chinas Economy GDP (2006) = US$10 trillion (PPP)
($2.5 trillion official)
17. (2) Growth of Chinas Economy Economy grew at ave. of over 8%/year in last 25 years
18. China vs. Japan
19. China vs. USA
20. (3) Chinas Economic Growth China could become the worlds largest economy by 2040
21. (4) Chinas Foreign Trade Foreign trade (2006) = US$1.7 trillion
22. (5) Chinas Output of Commodities:Workshop for the World
23. China vs. USA Auto Production
24. (6) Chinas Steel Industry China the No. 1 steel producer (since late 1990s)
25. (7) Chinas Volume of Consumption Major commodity consumer and importer
26. (8) China Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) China now the No. 1 destination in world,
estimated at US$500 billion since 1980
27. (9) Chinas Outward FDI China now a growing source of outward investment
28. (10) Chinas Military Power:Large and Growing
29. Superpowerdom? WHEN CHINA SPEAKS,
OTHER NATIONS LISTEN
Esp. the USA!
30. Chinas Assets (Strengths) for Superpowerdom (1) Rich fund, flow resource base
31. Assets (2) Good human resources:
Abundant labor supply
Well educated
Huge domestic market
32. Assets (3) Strong sense of national and cultural identity
Pride in being Chinese
Pride in Chinas accomplishments
33. 2008 Summer Olympics
34. Shanghai Expo 2010
35. Assets (5) Globalization of China:
FDI
Trade
Tourism
Education linkages
Links with Overseas
Chinese
Membership in orgs.
36. China: Internal Obstacles (Weaknesses) for Superpowerdom (1) Overpopulation:
Per capita income
Employment
Floating population
Regional
imbalance
37. Internal Weaknesses (2) Rising Inequality:
Social class divisions
Urban vs. rural
Regional
38. Internal Weaknesses (3) Minorities:
Separatism (splittism)
Islamism and the Uigurs
Tibet
39. Internal Weaknesses (4) Environment:
Severe pollution
Degradation of land, water, air
Global emissions
40. External Obstacles to Superpowerdom (1) Japan Factor:
Legacy of WWII and colonial era
Territorial disputes
US-Japan Security Treaty
Who is No. 1 in Asia?
41. External Obstacles to Superpowerdom (2) Asia Factor:
Trade vs. hegemony
Replacing Japan as No. 1
South China Sea
China vs. India
Support of N. Korea
42. External Obstacles to Superpowerdom (3) American Factor:
Containment vs. engagement
Human rights
Trade
Nuclear proliferation
TAIWAN
43. External Obstacles to Superpowerdom (4) Taiwan Factor:
Reunification? the Taiwan SAR?
Status quo? the ROC?
Independence?
the Rep. of Taiwan?
44. Chinas Future:Critical Questions and Issues Can China under a Leninist government ever have a truly normal relationship with rest of world?
Corruption and abuse of power widespread
Raw nationalism, grievances over history
Lack of moral underpinning in PRC
(thus, Falungong movement, Christianity)
Does China have a manifest destiny?
45. The Paradox of China:The End or The Beginning?