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The Mathematics of Life and Death

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This analysis explores the monetary value of life through the lens of risk assessment in extreme scenarios, such as Russian Roulette, driving a car, and flying in an airplane. By calculating the amount one would pay to halve the risk of death in these situations, we confront the uncomfortable reality of how much we value our lives. Insights into "micromorts" reveal daily risks we take and their corresponding death probabilities. This prompts a profound question: Does assigning a financial value to risk diminish the perceived worth of life itself?

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The Mathematics of Life and Death

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  1. The Mathematics of Life and Death

  2. Russian Roulette What is the minimum you would need to be paid to take place in a game of Russian Roulette with a million-chamber revolver?

  3. Drive Safely • Assume you have bought a small, new, car for around RM 40,000 • What is the most additional money you would be willing to spend on safety features to guarantee halving your risk of dying in a car crash in the next year?

  4. Fly Safely • You have just spent RM 4000 on a return flight to Europe. • What is the most additional money you would be willing to spend to halve your chance of dying in a plane crash on that journey?

  5. Your money or your life? How much is your life worth?

  6. WRONG ANSWER • If you answered ‘priceless’ to the previous question you are wrong • You have just decided what your life is worth three times: • Russian Roulette – multiply your answer by 1,000,000 • Drive Safely – multiply your answer by 100,000 • Fly Safely – multiply your answer by 280,000

  7. Meet the Micromort ‘A one in a million chance of death‘ • Calculated by looking at the number of deaths associated with various activities • Over the course of your life, how many micromorts of risk do you face on an average day?

  8. Some Micromorts… • http://understandinguncertainty.org/micromorts

  9. Some More Micromorts • smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease)[5][unreliable source?] • drinking 0.5 liter of wine (cirrhosis of the liver)[5] • spending 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease)[5] • spending 3 hours in a coal mine (accident)[5] • living 2 days in New York or Boston (air pollution)[5] • living 2 months in Denver (cancer from cosmic radiation)[5] • living 2 months with a smoker (cancer, heart disease)[5] • drinking Miami water for 1 year (cancer from chloroform)[5] • living 5 years at the boundary of a nuclear power plant (cancer from radiation)[5] • living 150 years within 20 miles of a nuclear power plant (cancer from radiation)[5] • eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks (cancer from benzopyrene)[5] • eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter (liver cancer from Aflatoxin B)[5] • eating 1000 bananas, (cancer from radioactive 1 kBED of Potassium-40)[citation needed] • travelling 6 minutes by canoe (accident)[5] • travelling 6 miles by motorbike (accident)[6] • travelling 17 miles by walking (accident)[7] • travelling 10 miles[5] (or 20 miles[7]) by bicycle (accident) • travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car (accident)[6] (or 250 miles[7]) • travelling 6000 miles (9656 km) by train (accident)[6] • flying 1000 miles (1609 km) by jet (accident)[5] • flying 6000 miles (9656 km) by jet (cancer from cosmic radiation)[5] • receiving one 10mrem chest X-ray in a good hospital (cancer from radiation)[8] • taking 1 ecstasy tablet[6]

  10. Is paying to reduce the number of micromorts you face the same as saying your life has a monetary value?

  11. Does saying that your has a monetary value devalue it?

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