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This presentation to COMSTAC outlines the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO), developed by the FAA/AST with contributions from Futron Corporation. It details global commercial launch demand projections from 2010 to 2019, addressing various orbits including Low Earth, Medium Earth, and external destinations like the Moon. The report analyzes market drivers, industry dynamics, and emerging trends impacting satellite launches and forecasts the demand for telecommunications, scientific missions, and remote sensing satellites, while exploring uncertainties that could affect future launches.
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2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Presentation to COMSTAC May 19, 2010
Contents and Purpose • Contents of the 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) • Developed by the FAA/AST with help from the Futron Corporation • Projects global commercial launch demand for 2010-2019 • All nongeosynchronous orbits including • Low Earth orbit • Medium Earth orbit • Elliptical orbits • External orbits such as to the Moon or other solar system destinations • Commercial definition: • Internationally competed launches • Licensed by the FAA/AST • Purpose of the NGSO forecast • To help the FAA/AST plan for its commercial launch licensing and promotional role • To raise public awareness of the scope and trajectory of commercial spaceflight demand
Basic Methodology • This report is based on research and discussions with: • Industry including: • Satellite service providers • Satellite manufacturers • Launch service providers • Government offices • Independent analysts • The forecast tracks progress for publicly-announced satellites and considers a number of factors, some examples: • Financing • Regulatory developments • Spacecraft manufacturing and launch services contracts • Investor confidence • Competition from space and terrestrial sectors • Overall economic conditions
Satellite and Launch Demand Total Satellites: 262 Total Launches: 119 • Demand Drivers • Large deployments of telecommunications constellations • A steady demand for launch of international science and other satellites • The new and promising sector of orbital facility assembly and services • A small but steady launch demand for commercial remote sensing satellites
2009 vs. 2010 Forecasts • Primary changes in market demand: • Delayed timetables for deploying large telecommunications constellations. • Large constellation deployment plans that leverage a greater number of launches than expected (ORBCOMM); or fewer (Iridium) • Delay in the initial NASA COTS demonstration flights and the extension of ISS CRS beyond 2016 also contributed to the difference.
International Science and Other Launch History and Forecast • Characteristics • Stable scientific demand from national space programs • Largest source of demand for small launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) • Four launches per year average during forecast period
Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and Forecast • Characteristics • Growing demand for commercial remote sensing products • Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) • Demand for under two launches per year average during forecast period
TelecommunicationsLaunch History and Forecast • Characteristics • Large deployments of telecommunications constellations • Cyclical launch demand that favors medium-to-heavy launch vehicles (<2,268 kg LEO) • Majority of demand occurs in the first five years of the forecast, followed by minimal demand between cycles
OFAS Launch History and Forecast • Characteristics • NASA Commercial Resupply Services contracts provide a foundation of demand • Demand for four launches per year average during forecast period • Successful development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could unlock increased launch demand in this sector
Emerging Markets That Could Impact Future Demand • Commercial Human Orbital Spaceflight • Development of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could generate new launch demand and possibly lead to the deployment of private space stations that require a large number of human and cargo supply flights. • Potential demand from NASA, Bigelow, Excalibur, etc. • Orbital Microsatellite Launch • The emergence of a low-cost, reliable microsatellite launch vehicle may increase launch demand as satellite operators would likely move away from multi-manifesting to dedicated microsatellite launch systems. • Exploration and Technology Demonstration • Lunar exploration, science, and development may be spurred by private space competitions and government use of commercial launch system.
Uncertainty • Fourteen sources of certainty examined, examples: • Financial uncertainty: • U.S. national and global economy • Investor confidence • Corporate mergers • Terrestrial competition • Political Uncertainty: • Policy and regulations • Increase/decrease in government purchase of commercial satellite services • Government missions open/closed to commercial launch competition • Technical Uncertainty: • Launch failure • Satellite manufacturing delay • Satellite failure in orbit • Introduction of innovative/disruptive technology
End • Questions?
