Pr. André MAÏSSEU University Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne Dr. Xingquan WANG

1. Fuzzy Entropy Public involvemen Applying Fuzzy Entropy to Valuation of Public Involvement in Nuclear Risks Pr. André MAÏSSEU University Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne Dr. Xingquan WANG Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences

2. Left hemisphere: activities such as Analyzing, calculating, Classifying... 1 Right hemisphere: in a more comprehensive way and referring to symbols 2 X One hemisphere superior to the other √ Two hemispheres on equal footing and endowed with good connections 3

3. FACTS 1 SYMBOLS 2 Man is an amphibious living simultenaously in two different worlds

4. Rational persons as scientists or engineers, live closer to the dry world of facts judgement of value based on elaborate and differenciated quantitative analysis Txt Text Text Text World of facts

5. Majority of mankind judgement of value formulated on basis of overall comparison with pre-existing symbols Predominantly live in an ocean of symbols Txt Text Text Text World of Symbols

6. 2 4 3 1 Magic transmutation of matter (the alchimists’ dream) Prometheus punishment due to appropriation of energy which is a prerogative of god or the sun Tremendous power stored in a small amount of matter Production of infinitely toxic waste In the past, those symbols were based exclusively on mere fiction. Some those symbols

7. 6 5 Insidious nature of invisible radiation likely to destroy every thing (the « death » radiation), likely the genetic potential Sorcerer’s apprentice overtaken by his own invention Continued

8. Hiroshima and Tchernobyl have awakened in mankind these symbols stemming from religion, magic, superstition, mythologies, frightening or fascinating humanity since millenniums. In a view of some events, unconscious contents may invade and even overwhelm consciousness and induce strange behaviour . For nuclear energy, the problem lies in those brain activities which are not under the control of consciousness.

9. Value perceptions of “Dread” and “unknown” Voluntary risks are accepted involontary risks are not Risk perception and public opinion Text Text Text Text

10. Crowd acts by the expression of a common emotion Public acts by discussion Mass acts by simultaneous and independant actions of the participants

11. Mass “choices” can have powerful effects on society More than fifty years of unconscious constructivism with movies, press articles, TV programmes, etc… have built up a pseudo-reality for tchernobyl, people will then unconsciously endeavour to make reality coincide with their own preconceptions

12. By now, the world of facts is being questionning. the uncertainty which is inherent to modern sciences is a godsend for all whose find it to their advantages to conceal part of their lack of knowledge. Science is becoming more and more subtle and complex. In the public mind, this situation weaken the world of the facts and strengthen the world of the symbols.

13. It is no longer necessary to be a learned person to participate in a scientific debate; it is sufficient to be arrogant. « Few people really think, but every one has an opinion » Berkeley, a rather cynical irish philosopher

14. Views of risks are produced and supported by particular structure and particular outlook on risk  individualist hierarchist   puritan

15. Any society is composed in varying proportions of three groups which can be distinguished by systems values dominated by: Freedom Order Purity

16. Pioneering « heroic » society • initiative, pragmatism, individualism, power seeking, freedom Individuals are dynamic, optimistic, pragmatic, individualistic. Freedom is their most precious possession. Dangerous situation is a challenge. they are not much concerned by risks and ecological issues

17. Regulating « bureaucratic » society caste distinction, hierarchy, structure, method order This society is characterized by words such as method, struture laws, hierarchy and classification. dangers constitue an opportunity to strenghten the regime of laws.

18. Moralising « puritan» society self-destruction, sectarianism cleanliness, health purity This society favours health, cleanliness, protection, morals and above all purity. it is predisposed to emergence of a psychic epidemic in relation with impurity or sin

19. These three types play an important part in society «order» society « puritan» society « pioneering» society

20. « Pioneers » and « puritans» can never agree, which give a key role to the « bureaucrats » « Puritan » endeavour to compensate for their fear of death by demanding an absolute safety that is bound to remain sheer utopianism Text Text If one of the three begins to prevail, the society tends to become an extremist one which may prove very detrimental

21. Today the « puritans» have become a strong group. They were able to create a new coalition with « bureaucrats », to knock the pioneers out of the contest and cut off the motor of the society. In Europe, forty years ago, pioneers and bureaucrats, combined together. they have a comfortable majority and may run society.

22. Bureaucrats Puritans Possible new coalition Bureaucrates Puritains Pionniers Pionniers Oldcoalition

23. We enter in an aera of uncertainty, which is characterized by an Increasing overload of Contradictory or Misinterpreted information. People won’t know any more either whom or what to believe

24. It is the unknown, associated with frightening symbols that keep fear alive. How to transcend this situation, to succeed in making radioactivity, ionizing radiation, nuclear energy normal daily topics as airplane, computer, etc?

25. 1 5 3 2 4 4 Self organization of collective mind Self-organizing of social mamals follows simple mathematical structures which suggest that it could be also expected in human society. Key points: Mathematical structures Crowd are composed of small groups From facts to symbols and “vice versa” Scale of levels structured system complexity Minority is able to change majority’s opinion

26. ◆Some authors used the Shannon definition of entropy to value the increased organization of « collective information » ◆Initial non-organized structure mind might be described by analogy with the random motion of gas molecules.

27. Shannon definition of entropy measures the uncertainty associated with a random variable. It is a valuation of the average (missing) information Similitude of Clausius’s entropy formula and shannon’s entropy formula gives no validity to some identity between these two different topics Average information has no sense for organization of collective mind.

28. What Is Entropy ? The total loss of efficiency is a measure of the increase in entropy. (de Rosnay) STATE B STATE A E = W + Q ∆ S  ORDER = n E = W ∆ S = 0 ORDER = 1

29. Unsolved Maxwell « devil » paradox « Maxwell » devil may increase order entropy (clausius definition) without work. Even the great respect we have for Maxwell, he forgot something: his devil must know the colour of the ball !!! Information!

30. A direct valuation of the entropy of information sets in the framework of thermodynamics laws will found a direct identity between Clausius entropy and Shannon “entropy”

31. Direct valuation of information entropy The total amount in the knowledge of the world may be counted as Where is a knowledge octet (bit) and N the total of knowledge octets available in the world

32. The increase dU of the world Knowledge, the information flows, is equal to Every knowledge octet has an “intrinsic originality” Qi. The total value of the amount of the worldwide knowledge is

33. Let add a second parameter Gi, as the relative creativity of information stored in Archimedes, Beethoven, Champollion, etc... or Joe Public, « the man in the street » • E = f(Ni, Qi, Gi) The number of possible collision may be valued by in Combinational Analysis as • C = [(Ni + Gi – 1)]! / (Ni)! (Gi - 1) • E as Erkenntnis, in German, which means “knowledge”+“know how”, in French “savoir” and “savoir-faire” and “savoir être”

34. The increase of Knowledge, the information flows, is directed links with the number and the “quality” of collision between knowledge octets which may be described using the Bose Einstein statistical mechanics. E = i [(Ni + Gi – 1)! / Ni! (Gi – 1) !]

35. as Gi Ni 1, E = i [(Ni + Gi)! / Ni! (Gi) !] log E = i [log(Ni + Gi)! – log(Ni)! – log (Gi)!] Using Stirling approximation : log E = i [(Ni + Gi) log(Ni + Gi) – Ni log(Ni) – Gi log (Gi)] as Ni  cte and Ni  0, due to Lagrange operators: Ni = Gi / eQi – 1 So E = i Gi Qi e -Qi

36. From a «virgin» information system to an «organized» information system 

37. Let use the Maxwell –Boltzmann statisticsto value the entropy of an organized public mood Let use the Bose Einstein statistics to value the entropy of a virgin public mood Text Valuation of entropy the public mood The reality will be between Bose-Einstein and Maxwell–Boltzmann distributionMeasured by  is a fuzzy number whichmeasured the distance between the intrinsic quality of information and its relative creativity

38. CONCLUSION THE FEELING OF THE PUBLIC FACING NUCLEAR RISKS IS NOT LINKED TO THE REALITY (INTRINSIC QUALITY OF INFORMATION ) OF THE RISKS BUT TO WHAT IT IS EXPECTING TO BE. EDUCATION (RELATIVE CREATIVITY ) IS THE BEST WAY TO FACE MISINFORMATION

39. CONCLUSION DRIVING BY LEADERS, CLUSTERS APPEARS WITHIN A PERCOLATION PROCESS. THE SOCIETY FEELING CAN BE BLOCKED. THE COST TO SOLVE THE BLOCKING UP (ITS ENTROPY) CAN BE VERY HIGH

40. CONCLUSION COLLECTIVE MIND MUST BE “PREPARED” BY RIGHT EDUCATION.

41. Thank You !