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5 th February 2013 Cambridge University Scientific Society Cambridge

O ur Shared Destinies Within the Planet’s Boundaries Professor Sir David King Director, Cambridge Kaspakas Senior Science Advisor, UBS Chancellor, University of Liverpool. 5 th February 2013 Cambridge University Scientific Society Cambridge. The Loess Plateau, China. Source: CSIRO.

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5 th February 2013 Cambridge University Scientific Society Cambridge

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  1. Our Shared Destinies Within the Planet’s Boundaries Professor Sir David King Director, Cambridge Kaspakas Senior Science Advisor, UBS Chancellor, University of Liverpool 5th February 2013 Cambridge University Scientific Society Cambridge

  2. The Loess Plateau, China Source: CSIRO

  3. Loess Plateau Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org

  4. Total Population of the World in Billions Middle Class* *Middle class here defined as daily per capita spending of between $10 and $100 in PPP terms Source: IIASA

  5. Average Children per Woman 1960 Pop 2.1 Source: www.gapminder.org

  6. Average Children per Woman 2011 Source: www.gapminder.org

  7. Rising Middle Class • 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today • 3 billion more middle-class consumers expected by 2030 • 90% of that growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

  8. 21st Century Challenges Minerals Minerals Food production Food production Climate change Climate change • Conflict and • terrorism • Conflict and • terrorism Population – the driver Population – the driver Ecosystems Ecosystems Water resource Water resource • Energy security and supply • Energy security and supply Health and development

  9. MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999-2001=100) Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

  10. The Arab Spring Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA

  11. Global Water Demand Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009

  12. Conventional Oil Supply and Demand Volume of conventional oil discovered Volume of conventional oil consumed Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth 50 40 30 20 Billions of barrels [Gb] 10 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2060 1900 2020 2040 Year Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010) Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026

  13. Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production from 1998 to present Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435

  14. Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economies Source: Z, EbrahimO.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility

  15. Copper Reserves Source: Chuquicamata in Chile

  16. 389 ppm Interglacial period Carbon dioxide Glacial period Temperature Observed Global Temperatures 0 1 2 Temperature δ18 0 (ppt) 3 4 5 60 million years ago 40 million 20 million 0.5 million 3 million 2.5 million 2 million 1.5 million 1 million Present Carbon dioxide Temperature -325ppm -300ppm 0ºC 275ppm -2ºC 250ppm -4ºC 225ppm -6ºC 200ppm -8ºC 175ppm 400,000 years ago 300,000 200,000 100,000 Present Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485 Source: ML Design.  From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009

  17. Sea Level and Temperature Measurements Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool

  18. European Temperatures 1900 – 2100 Source: Hadley Centre

  19. Destruction of forests Source: World Research Institute

  20. Protection Areas CAPE COD Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service

  21. Collective response Global governance Sustainable consumption The Paradigm Shift A Twenty First Century Renaissance

  22. Planetary Boundaries Source: Kate Roworth 2012, Oxfam

  23. 2003 UK unilaterally declares 60% emissions reduction target for 2050 Timeline of Climate Change Action 2005 Gleneagles G8+5 National: 2005 European Union adoption of the ETS 2009 100 heads of states at Copenhagen First Accord Commitment period for 76 nations 2008 UK Climate Change Act 2004 UK Internal ETS established 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2011 Durban Platform 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force Global Process 1992 UNFCCC formation 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2012 Kyoto I ends 2010 Cancun Agreement 2001 Marrakesh – Kyoto Protocol implementation rules agreed UN: National and Regional Commitments 2009 Copenhagen Accord Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

  24. National Actions on Climate Change Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements. ‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action. Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

  25. National Action: Rwanda

  26. Historical Development of Advanced Economies Science, Technology, Engineering Imported goods Manufacturing Innovation Offshore Manufacturing

  27. Emergence of Smart Green Advanced Manufacturing Sector Science, Technology, Engineering Smart green advanced manufacturing sector Innovation

  28. “Circular Economy” Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation

  29. Transport Substitution Source: Future of Mobility Roadmap, Smith School.

  30. Personal Urban Mobility left: Gordon Murray Design T25 right: C. Borroni-Bird (GM) in O.R. Inderwildi & D.A. Kind (Eds.), ‘Energy, Transport & the Environment, Springer 2012

  31. Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV) Source: Dr. Nam PyoSuh, KAIST

  32. Peoplevs. Cars: Bogota Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa

  33. Hybrid Airship Source: Hybrid Lighter Than Air Craft 2012

  34. The International FusionProject: ITER Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy

  35. Plastic photovoltaics Richard Friend Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust

  36. Progress in China • 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development put forward • 2005 - Bureau took climate change seriously – limiting fossil fuel in their development • 2012 - 15th November – Changed their constitution

  37. Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau 1997 2005 Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org

  38. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being Scenarios Human Well-being State of Resources and Global Commons

  39. “It is, therefore, the manner and issue of consumption which are the real tests of production … THERE IS NO WEALTH BUT LIFE. Life, including all its powers of love, of joy, and of admiration.” Source: John Ruskin, Unto this Last (1862)

  40. Engagement with the Outside World Interdisciplinary and Inter-Sectoral Information Sharing Hub Interdisciplinary and Intersectoral Information Sharing Hub Sectoral

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