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“ FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE AND EMISSION TRENDS IN SPAIN

“ FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE AND EMISSION TRENDS IN SPAIN. Pedro José Pérez-Martínez. INTRODUCTION. GHG : Spain's freight transportation 8.9% (total) and 35% (transportation sector) Spain trading country 56% GDP exports and imports Shift towards processed and manufactured products

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“ FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE AND EMISSION TRENDS IN SPAIN

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  1. “FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE AND EMISSION TRENDS IN SPAIN Pedro José Pérez-Martínez

  2. INTRODUCTION • GHG: Spain's freight transportation8.9% (total) and 35%(transportation sector) • Spain trading country 56% GDP exports and imports • Shift towards processed and manufactured products • Reviews energy use and emission trends 1990-2012 • Decomposition analyses and scenarios techniques • Factors and measures decrease energy use and emissions

  3. MATERIAL AND METHODS National transport, energy and environment statistics • Energy use by transport mode (J) • Freight activity (t, tkm, vkm) • Energy consumption by fuel/energy type (J) • CO2 emissions by transport mode (ktCO2eq.) • Economy (GDP 1995 M€) and demography (popullation) , Ef energy mode j and fuel f, Et total energy and , w1 and w2 weightings , Ai,j activity, Ii,j intensity and Si,j share

  4. MATERIAL AND METHODS Decomposition analyses (Schipper et al. 1997 and Steenhof et al. 2006) , Ci,j emissions and Fi,f carbon rate fuel , ∆C0,i emiss. change activity , ∆C0,i emissions change share , ∆C0,i emissions change intensity , ∆C0,i residual term

  5. Freight transport demand and GDP in Spain Source: Pérez-Martínez and Monzón de Cáceres (2006).

  6. THE SPANISH FREIGHT SECTOR • Transportation services 6,5% GDP (2004), increasing share manuf. prod. • Manufactured products (2004): 31,9% (tkm), 12,3% (t), 10,6% (operations) • Trends freight transport follow economy • Share of freight (2004): road (84%), marine (10%), rail (3%) • Energy freight transport (2004): 546 PJ (63% diesel, 56% increment 1990) • Energy transport (2004): 26,8% primary energy, 21% freight (8,9% p.e. )

  7. Activity C hange Energy intensity C hange Emissions C hange Modal C hange (millions tkm) % (MJ/tkm) % (ktCO e q .) % share % 2 Mode 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 Road 198 . 635 334 . 081 68 1,44 1,42 - 1 19 . 768 32 . 859 66 0,80 0,84 6 Rail 11 . 613 12 . 019 3 0,40 0,40 - 2 323 329 2 0,05 0,03 - 35 Air 91 95 4 11,03 21,56 95 70 142 1 04 0,00 03 0,0002 - 34 Marine 33 . 048 40 . 005 21 1,75 1,43 - 18 4 . 000 3 . 963 - 1 0, 13 0,10 - 24 Pipe 6 . 365 11 . 415 79 0,18 0,41 1 32 78 324 3 16 0,03 0,03 13 Freight total 249 . 752 397 . 615 59 1,40 1,37 - 3 24 . 238 37 . 617 5 6 1,00 1,00 • Activity, intensity and emissions of freight transport in Spain (1990-2004) Road improved efficiency not significantly Efficiency gains resulted increasing size ships Road hegemony, rail decline Increased trade man. goods “Just in time deliveries” Change activity explained change emissions Source: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Inventario Nacional de Emisiones (2006), Ministerio de Fomento, Informe Anual Transporte y Servicios Postales (2006) and self preparation

  8. Results of decomposition of freight carbon emissions, 1990-2004 Emissions increased 56% (2004), explanatory factor change activity (9% more emissions), improvement fuel efficiency slightly curtailed rise emissions

  9. SCENARIOS FOR 2012 • Business as usual (BAU): trends activity, energy intensity, fuel and modal shares continue to 2012 – Energy intensities fall • Development Spanish Freight Railway (DSFR): increases share railway (18%, 2012) and improved energy efficiency • Road Efficiency and Biodiesel (REB): efficiency gains diesel engines (30%) and penetration biodiesel engines (10% road energy) • Scenarios same estimates future transport levels (27% increment 2004-2012), different mode shares and vehicle technology levels

  10. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the freight sector 1990, 2004 • and in the scenarios for 2012* BAU emissions over 47 MtCO2eq. (∆26% 2004, ∆96% 1990) DSFR (∆10% 2004, -6 MtCO2eq./year BAU), road (∆10%), rail (∆429% ) REB (∆-6,5% 2004, -61 MtCO2eq. BAU2008-2012), road (∆-8,3%), rail (∆-4,6%) , marine (∆-4,9%), pipe (∆103%), air (∆35%) 43,1 MtCO2eq. (-4,5 Mt BAU, 2012) 27,9 MtCO2eq. (∆15% 1990, 2008-2012) emissions lower REB no increase activity *Possibilities using bigger or high performance vehicles not examined in scenarios

  11. Energy and fuel costs* impacts under freight sector scenarios, road only (2012) REB savings 158 PJ/year (7,9% energy used transport Spain) DSFR savings 112 PJ/year, 2310 M€/year (-29% and -25% REB) Note: fuel prices constant at 2004 levels: diesel 0,75 €/l, gasoline 0,89 €/l, biodiesel 0,82 €/l; 1 MJ is equal to the energy content of: 0,025 liters of diesel, 0,028 liters of gasoline and 0,029 liters of biodiesel at lower heating value; Information is based on Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio (2004) and Johansson (1995) *Annual net savings from BAU, include exclusively fuel cost

  12. CO2 emissions per GDP by major end use in Spain, 1990-2004 GDP related increasing activity, emissions transport (tCO2eq. per GDP), ∆15% 1990-2004, Agriculture and environment, -∆19% Industry, ∆2% Waste treatment, disposal and non industrial plants, ∆13% Source: Pérez-Martínez (2005) Note: CO2 emissions of different economic sectors includes all the SNAP groups. Industry includes groups 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Transport includes groups 7 and 8. Agriculture and environment includes groups 10 and 11. Others includes groups 2 and 9.

  13. Road freight energy consumption and fuel price in Spain, 1990-2004. Diesel (78%) and gasoline prices (22%) weighted by consumption. Weak inverse relation fuel price and energy Low diesel price relative gasoline Weight regulations/Tolls/Wages/ affect operating costs more than fuel (is only one factor) Source: Pérez-Martínez (2006) Note: In Spain, gasoline is only important to fueling a share of light duty vehicles. Heavy duty vehicles use mostly diesel.

  14. DISCUSSION • GDP related increasing activity despite decrease energy intensity • Fuel price slightly affected changes road freight activity and energy consumption – weak inverse relation fuel price and intensity • Carbon emissions restrained: reducing activity, changing modal share, improving utilization and technology (propulsion, fuel mix); activity accounts 10% total costs and 15% total energy • Trend towards road on expenses of rail due to inherent differences: geography, distance and transport policies; fuel changes could influence share towards lower energy costs and higher efficiencies • Energy efficiency influenced by: technology, optimization strategies and policy measures; increment intermodal combinations could increase load factors and decrease energy intensities • Reduce carbon emissions through switching to fuels with lower carbon emissions per unit of energy; use of alternative fuels constrained by high prices

  15. CONCLUSIONS • Freight transport energy use and corresponding CO2 emissions increased faster than other sectors in Spain (56%, 41% above Kyoto Protocol) • Analysis of growth trends: increased activity, maintenance modal shares, little changes fuel efficiency, continualchanges energy use and CO2 emissions • Scenarios asset: CO2 emissions reduced by 6,5% by 2012 (REB) if road diesel vehicles experiment 30% increase in efficiency; road fuel 158 PJ and cost savings 3099 M€ • Freight growth coupled with economical growth; share of manufactured products increased together with distances travelled and environmental problems

  16. THANKS ! Pedro José Pérez-MartínezTransport Research Center – TRANSyT, UPME-mail: pjperez@caminos.upm.esHomepage: http://www.transyt.upm.es

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