1 / 32

Analysis of 2012 Maryland Elections: Voter Demographics and Trends

This study by Dr. Dan Nataf of Anne Arundel Community College examines the 2012 elections in Maryland, focusing on voter demographics, key issues, and electoral trends. It highlights the shifting coalitions that define the state's political landscape, including the stability of Democratic strongholds and the battleground counties. Key findings suggest that while Democratic support remains consistent, local candidate alignment with national issues is crucial for success. The research also includes insights on voter turnout, preferences on major policies like same-sex marriage, and the impact of demographic variables.

hyatt-black
Télécharger la présentation

Analysis of 2012 Maryland Elections: Voter Demographics and Trends

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2012 Elections In Maryland Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

  2. National Results

  3. National Results

  4. How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4 Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters Oct 11 Oct 3

  5. Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)

  6. Map of Battleground States NH Wis Iowa Ohio Nev. Va. Colo. NC Fl.

  7. Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1

  8. Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)

  9. Popular Vote: 1952-2012

  10. Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012

  11. Exit Poll: Demographics http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/

  12. Exit Poll: Issues

  13. National Demographic Lessons • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30 • Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, • Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics • Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white, Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+ • Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural

  14. Dems: 55 (with 2 independents) Reps: 45 Senate:

  15. National Results: Election findings • Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony • Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates • House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results) • Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend • Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win

  16. Maryland: Presidential Results

  17. Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting

  18. Presidential Vote by County, 2012

  19. Dream Act by County, % Supporting

  20. Redistricting by County, % Supporting

  21. Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting

  22. All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)

  23. Lessons for State Elections • Democratic hegemony remains unchanging • Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City • Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County • Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester

  24. Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012 Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1

  25. Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

  26. AA County: Early Vote - 2012

  27. AA County Lessons • County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos) • Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket • Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates • Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2

  28. AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics

  29. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

  30. Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

  31. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

  32. AAC: Demographic Lessons • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30 • Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k • Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70 • Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+ • Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals

More Related