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Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. Download paper here . www.culturalcognition.net. Culture , Rationality, and Risk Perception: the Tragedy of the Science-Communication Commons. The science communication problem . . . Two hypotheses Data

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  1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. Download paper here.

  2. www.culturalcognition.net Culture, Rationality, and Risk Perception: the Tragedy of the Science-Communication Commons

  3. The science communication problem . . . • Two hypotheses • Data • Tragedy of the risk perception commons • Two-channel communication strategy

  4. Two Hypotheses • 1. Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) • 2. Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) • “science illiteracy” • “bounded rationality”

  5. The science communication problem . . . • Two hypotheses • Data • Tragedy of the risk perception commons • Two-channel communication strategy 

  6. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  7. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality Greater High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  8. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Risk PIT prediction PIT prediction actual variance actual variance perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Risk low high low high Science literacy Numeracy U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  9. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater PIT prediction Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) Actual variance High Sci lit/numeracy Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  10. Two Hypotheses • 1. Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) • 2. Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) • “science illiteracy” • “bounded rationality”

  11. Mary Douglas’s Group-grid worldview scheme Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Abortion procedure Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians Gays military/gay parenting Guns/Gun Control compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Individualism Communitarianism Abortion procedure Environment: climate, nuclear Gays military/gay parenting Guns/Gun Control egalitarian individualists egalitarian communitarians compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Egalitarianism

  12. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Cultural Variance Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  13. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  14. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  15. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  16. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  17. The science communication problem . . . • Two hypotheses • Data • Tragedy of the risk perception commons • Two-channel communication strategy  

  18. Culturally motivated search & assimilation • Cultural source credibility effect • Cultural availability effect • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Evidence (mechanisms). L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010) • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011) • Kahan, D.M., Wittlin, M, Peters, E., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman D. & Mandel, G. The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons, CCP Working Paper No. 89 (June 24, 2011))

  19. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

  20. Culturally motivated search & assimilation • Cultural source credibility effect • Cultural availability effect • 4. Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, 87-91 (2009) • Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Evidence (mechanisms). L. & Human Behavior 34, 501-516 (2010) • Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-174 (2011) • Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change, advance on line publication, doi:10.1038/nclimate1547 (2012).

  21. The science communication problem . . . • Two hypotheses • Data • Tragedy of the risk perception commons • Two-channel communication strategy    Kahan D.M., Jenkins-Smith, J., Taranotola, T., Silva C., & Braman, D., Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: a Cross-cultural Study, CCP Working Paper No. 92 (Jan. 9, 2012).

  22. Two Channel Communication Strategy • channel 1: content • Risk • Perception • Information • channel 2: meaning

  23. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

  24. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Climate change Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Egalitarianism

  25. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  26. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  27. Control Condition

  28. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  29. Anti-pollution Condition

  30. Geoengineering Condition

  31. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

  32. Two Channel Communication Strategy • channel 1: content • Risk • Perception • Information • channel 2: meaning

  33. Anti-pollution Condition

  34. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  35. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  36. Geoengineering Condition

  37. Two Channel Communication Strategy • channel 1: content • Risk • Perception • Information • channel 2: meaning

  38. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  39. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

  40. Polarization more polarization z_Study dismiss 2 less polarization anti-pollution

  41. The science communication problem . . . • Two hypotheses • Data • Tragedy of the risk perception commons • Two-channel communication strategy     Kahan D.M., Jenkins-Smith, J., Tarantola, T., Silva C., & Braman, D., Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: a Cross-cultural Study, CCP Working Paper No. 92 (Jan. 9, 2012).

  42. Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!

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