U.S. International Travel Statistics

1. U.S. International Travel Statistics OECD Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics Robert E. Yuskavage U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis October 4, 2010

2. Overview • Background on BEA • U.S. travel trends • U.S. travel definitions • International guidelines: U.S. conformance • U.S. methods for travel estimates • U.S. improvement efforts

3. BEA’s International Statistics • The International Transactions Accounts (ITAs) summarize transactions between U.S. residents and nonresidents, including goods and services • BEA publishes: • Quarterly ITAs for the U.S. and 34 countries and areas • Monthly goods and services statistics jointly with the U.S. Census Bureau • Annual services trade statistics between the U.S. and 49 countries and areas

4. Travel and BEA’s Accounts • Exports and imports of travel services are major components of the ITAs • Included in the quarterly gross domestic product statistics in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts • Important components of BEA’s Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts

5. Relative Size and Trends • Travel exports account for about 20 percent of total U.S. services exports in recent years

6. Relative Size and Trends • Travel imports account for about 20 percent of total U.S. services imports in recent years

7. Relative Size and Trends • Travel as a share of total services trade peaked in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s • It was nearly one-third of exports and imports services trade at that time • Travel has consistently generated a surplus in the U.S. balance of payments, which peaked at $30 billion in 2008.

8. U.S. Travel Receipts - Top Partner Countries • Canada tops the receipts list in 2009, reflecting its proximity to the United States

9. U.S. Travel Payments - Top Partner Countries • Mexico tops the payments list, reflecting proximity and the popularity of its resorts

10. U.S. Travel Definitions • U.S. ITAs define travel to include purchases of goods and services by • U.S. travelers abroad • Foreign travelers in the United States • A traveler is a person who stays for a period of less than one year in a country of which he or she is not a resident • Passenger fare receipts and payments are a separate category in the ITAs

11. International Guidelines: U.S. Conformance • International guidelines recommend including expenditures of students and persons who travel abroad for medical care as travel • BEA is considering updating its travel account to conform to these guidelines. • Guidelines also recommend breaking out travel services by business and personal travel • BEA will investigate whether adequate source data are available to provide this breakout.

12. U.S. Methods for Travel Estimates • Travel receipts and payments for Mexico and Canada are obtained directly from those countries (mirror data) • For other countries, travel expenditures are the product of number of travelers and average travel expenditures • Counts of foreign travelers to the U.S. and U.S. residents abroad are obtained from U.S. immigration authorities. • Information from the Survey of International Air Travel (SIAT) is used to estimate the average expenditures of travelers by country of origin and destination • The SIAT is conducted monthly either in the departure gate or on-board scheduled flights departing the United States

13. Limitations of Methods • Some aspects of the SIAT data limit its effectiveness for the travel account: • Foreign visitors departing the United States may not accurately recall their travel expenditures • U.S. travelers departing the United States may not be able to anticipate their travel expenditures • Sample sizes are small for countries that are less popular destinations for U.S. travelers or that have few travelers to the United States • The surveys cover a variety of travel-related topics, of which travel expenditures is only one

14. Limitations of Methods • Some aspects of the traveler counts data limit their effectiveness for the travel account: • Do not identify the purpose of the visit, i.e. whether business or personal • Cover just the initial destination of the traveler • Include some categories of travelers that should be excluded, such as diplomats • Capture citizens rather than residents as recommended by balance of payments accounting guidelines

15. U.S. Improvement Efforts • BEA is developing a methodology that combines • New data on expenditures using credit, debit, and charge cards by U.S. travelers abroad and by foreign travelers in the United States with • Information on the portion of total spending that travelers make using these types of cards. • Credit card transactions can provide • Accurate data drawn from business records • Coverage of a significant portion of spending by travelers abroad and in the United States • Expenditures by country of origin and destination

16. New Survey Instruments • The BE-150, Quarterly Survey of Cross-Border Credit, Debit, and Charge Card Transactions • Collects information on the card transactions of U.S. persons traveling abroad and of foreign persons traveling in the United States • The BE-100, Survey of International Travel Expenditures • One-time survey provides a basis for expanding results from the BE-150 survey to reflect transactions using all means of payment

17. Evaluation of Results • Preliminary results indicate that the share of expenditures ranges from 35 to 65 percent across countries, with the average exceeding 50 percent • BEA is reviewing the results to assess how best to combine data from the two new surveys • Some issues for further investigation include: • Robustness of the share of expenditures by card • Variation across origin and destination countries • Coverage of transactions conducted by card

18. Conclusion • BEA’s current methodology is sound and has worked well over several decades and business cycle conditions • Some limitations of the source data, however, have raised questions about the reliability of the statistics • BEA has taken steps to address these concerns by • Obtaining travel expenditures data directly from credit card companies and • Obtaining information from travelers about their use of cards for travel expenditures • BEA will evaluate how best to incorporate these new data into the official U.S. travel statistics in the balance of payments accounts