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Topics. Are all regions of Melbourne “booming”? Growth by gender Origin-destination flows Is census “representative”?. We are a community , not an economy !. Objective. Develop an Australian-specific active transport appraisal framework. Be practical.

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  1. Topics • Are all regions of Melbourne “booming”? • Growth by gender • Origin-destination flows • Is census “representative”? We are a community, not an economy!

  2. Objective • Develop an Australian-specific active transport appraisal framework. • Be practical. • Be consistent with standard transport appraisal. • Be cognisant of the limitations.

  3. Existing Guidelines

  4. Contributions • Spreadsheet tool • Explicit recognition of uncertainty • Australian-specific unit values • Diversion rates • Injury risk submodel

  5. Diversion rates: ‘rules of thumb No shift from PT outside inner city area Very little mode shift from car Most demand is reassigned More induced demand in outer urban and rural areas

  6. Rules of thumb Approximate discounted benefits over 30 years per 1,000 users per day: Inner urban benefits are lower because more demand is reassigned, as opposed to more induced demand in other areas Pedestrians produce greater benefits because of higher health benefits per km and more induced travel than cycling, but travel much shorter distances

  7. The Magic Box

  8. Example 1: Inner City Bridge • Assume active transport capital cost is 5% of total project cost (5% x $338m = $16.9m) • Average daily demand is 1,100 cyclists and 500 pedestrians • Average cycling trip is 10 km, walking is 3.75 km (i.e. 45 min @ 5 km/h) • Bridge reduces travel distance by 300 m

  9. Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) Best estimate: 1.0 45% chance that BCR < 1.0 95% confidence interval: 0.6 – 1.4

  10. Discounted benefits Travel time benefits due to shorter distance Health benefits are very significant Vehicle-related benefits are small

  11. Discounted benefits: Breakdown Active transport less safe Shorter distance Shorter distance Less travel on-road

  12. Example 2: Parkiteer

  13. Benefit-Cost Ratio Summary

  14. Discounted Benefits: Summary

  15. Conclusion • ATC / Austroads guidelines update • Public realm valuation • Further research • Health values • Injury risk

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