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Enhancements in Tropical Cyclone Products and Operational Forecasting Methods

On June 6, 2006, Timothy Schott presented an outline on new operational and experimental products aimed at improving tropical cyclone forecasting. Key topics included the introduction of probabilistic wind and storm surge forecasts, with methods for conveying storm impact probabilities. The presentation highlighted new experimental products like the Tropical Cyclone VTEC and graphical hazard displays. Stakeholder feedback is crucial for refining these products to ensure they are clear, concise, and impactful for operational use. For more details, visit the provided NOAA resources.

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Enhancements in Tropical Cyclone Products and Operational Forecasting Methods

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Silver Spring, MD June 6, 2006 Timothy Schott 2006 Partners Workshop

  2. Outline • New Operational Products • Experimental Products • Future Work

  3. Probabilistic Winds – Operational • Graphical • Text • Experimental in the NDFD

  4. Probabilistic Storm Surge – Experimental Pre Katrina • www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/ • Two choices: • Overall chance storm surges will be greater than 5 feet above normal tide levels during the next 2 days Mainland Mississippi Post Katrina • Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 10 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days

  5. Tropical Cyclone VTEC – Experimental • www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback-tcv.shtml • New format for 2006 • Proposed operational for 2007 ALPHA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 .HURRICANE ALPHA FLC017-029-037-053-057-065-075-101-103-123-129-142100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1001.060314T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W $$ GMZ750-755-770-775-830-850-853-870-873-142100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1001.060314T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W

  6. Tropical Cyclone Graphical Hazards – Experimental • www.weather.gov/os/tropical/hazards.htm • Participating WFOs providing Impacts or Threat Graphics • 2006 is first of a two year experimental effort

  7. Extreme Wind Warning • http://www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/eww.htm • Purpose • New for 2006 • Extreme Wind Warning Product for 2007 • Beyond 2007

  8. WFO Tropical Cyclone Products Improvement Team • Desire for clear, concise and meaningful WFO tropical cyclone products • Feedback needed • Contact: scott.kiser@noaa.gov

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