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Major Changes in Economic and Demographic Data Sources and Forecasting Features

This release outlines significant updates in economic and demographic data sources, including local area personal income, employment data, population statistics, and birth rates covering 1990 to 2009. Key highlights include detailed employment and wage estimates for Michigan, Nevada, and Texas, as well as national data projections. The forecast period has been extended to 2060 with new features such as integrated policy variables, enhanced data handling, and improvements in calculator functionalities. This update reflects advanced methodologies for migration equations, investment responses, and housing price elasticities.

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Major Changes in Economic and Demographic Data Sources and Forecasting Features

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  1. v1.3 Major Changes

  2. Major Economic Data Sources • BEA Local Area Personal Income and Employment county data (2001-2009), 04/21/2011 release. • Estimates of detailed employment and wage data for the states of Michigan, Nevada, and Texas (2001-2009) was provided by Don Grimes of the University of Michigan. • BEA State Personal Income and Employment state and national data (1990-2009), 03/23/2011 release. • BLS Employment Projections national data (1993-2008 and 2018), 12/11/2009 release. • RSQE national forecast (2010-2013), 06/30/2011 release.

  3. Major Demographic Data Sources • BEA Local Area Population county data (1990-2009), 04/21/2011 release. • Census Population by age, sex, race, component of change county data (1990-2009). • BLS Labor Force county data (1990-2009). • CDC birth rate state data (1990-2008). • Census natality rate, survival rate, and net international migrant national data and forecast (1999-2100). • BLS Participation Rate national data and forecast (1990-2050).

  4. Major New Features • Forecast period extended to 2060 • Integrated Custom Industry policy variables • New Regional Population Update • Improved data handling for Employment Update • Calculator enhancements • New Custom Units and Currency Types in results view • New industry NAICS labels • New Demographic policy variables

  5. New Migration Equation/Response • Last estimated July 2002 using 1972-2000 data and a standard OLS regression approach • New equation estimates separate responses for relative employment opportunity and relative real compensation rate, utilizing Instrumental Variable (IV) approach and data from 2001-2008

  6. Estimates of Migration Equation Parameters

  7. New Investment Response • Last estimated February 2001 using 1974-1998 data • New equation based on 1995-2007 data

  8. New National Housing Price Response • Last estimated September 2001 using 1971-1998 data • Regional scaling factors estimated September 2007 using data from 1998-2004 • New equation based on data for 1998-2004, intentionally aligning with previous regional scaling factor estimates, and avoiding recent housing price bubble and collapse

  9. Estimates of U.S. Housing Price Elasticities

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