Stop looking at the past and start planning for the future

1. Stop looking at the past and start planning for the future Dr. Herman van Schalkwyk

2. Leading at the edge of chaos • We are currently in a perfect storm • How to weather the storm? • Find the truth • Aim to be the best, not the biggest • Vision excites people, not past performances • Lead by the business case

3. How to thrive in this perfect storm • How to thrive in this perfect storm? • Business as usual is dead • Public pressures changes the way business is done • The whole world is in upheavel and changing constantly You/Me are changing • We are currently in an uncertain environment • Labour unrest • Political instability • Lack of leadership • Climate • Safety It is important to listen to the grasshoppers hop

4. Why do we fail? • "They miss the future" • Must understand the key trends • Trend #1 – March of connectivity • Trend #2 – Crisis of trust (Power shift from corporates to common connected people) • Trend #3 – Drive of technology (opportunities) • Afro-realism • You/me must fix the problem, government wont do it • Where there is trouble, there is also opportunity Information is important, but it is how we apply it that will define us

5. Political environment • ANC is becoming insecure on the back of growing support for DA and EFF • The NDP is best guide that government has provided and could kick start something positive • Implementation of the NDP is however important • ANC must make changes to stop the "bleeding" • However, the ANC struggles to apply these changes (tries to keep everybody happy and in the process can damage institutions and processes) • The ANC must decide whether or not to include or exclude private sector

6. Political environment • There is a current hostile environment towards the agricultural sector • Policies in the agricultural sector negatively affects employment • However, the agricultural sector is the only major sector that can make a significant difference in the rural areas • We must use this fact to our advantage (How?) • BEE and the entitlement culture must be replaced with a "will to succeed" culture

7. Economic overview (Schussler) • Agriculture is the only major industry in rural areas that can employ low skilled people across the country. • Faces higher wage costs as government was pressured and now agricultural employment looks set to dip again. • Agriculture can form the basis of growth in rural areas if given certainty. • Why when most claimants want money do we not give farmers certainty? • Can we not just say that government will pay compensation now but growth in rural areas is needed and for that you need certainty. • Can we transform land based on race rather than skills?

8. Economic overview (Schussler) • Cost pressure will remain. • Consumer / customers remain under pressure too. • Buy down trend in SA means agriculture needs to find markets outside the country. • AFRICA!!!!!!!!! • Government will struggle to listen to farmers unless farmers can get beyond the rhetoric. • Talk about the positive as the government needs it

9. Difference between a losing and winning nation • Not only one solution • Education • Certainty of choices • Implementation • Stability in macro-environment • Stability in micro-environment (concentrate on specific sectors that we can be competitive in) • People are the real assets of a country and we must start to make skills based decisions • Integrating and employing the skills of immigrants • 3 important factors • Concept of vision (NDP?) • Political will • Leadership

10. Panel discussion • Work with government – Asuf working towards plan • All stakeholders should come together to develop plan to support developing farms • Current plans are not working or lack of implementation • Politicians must bring specialists into play • Success stories exist – learn from it • Land audit extremely important • Private sector contribution to land reform is there • Trust has to be developed (stable policy environment) • Selection of beneficiaries a problem • Unproductive redistributed land

11. Panel discussion • How do we create trust? • Will not be easy • Must step up our game • Must do an economic business assessment • Must speak from one voice (uniformity of purpose) • Keep talking and talk to people that will listen

12. Farmaggeddon • The hidden cost of cheap meat and the devastating impact of factory farming on people, animals and our planet are not yet evident in South Africa • We must however learn from the developed world and not make the same mistakes • Consumer demand and trends are moving in this direction and cognisance must be taken of these trends • This is part of our future and strategies to accommodate this development must be incorporated to address these issues

13. Commodity outlook • Demand for agricultural products are increasing especially in Africa • But from where will production come? • South America and Africa is where the opportunities are • Positive outlook on most commodities

14. Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Combined effect Positive effect Combined effect Dry spell Normal Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Aug Jun

15. Conclusion • Yes the perfect storm is here but it is also elsewhere • Hostile politics towards agriculture? • Ancient Chinese symbol for crises also means dangerous opportunity • It is important that we find common ground about the future of agriculture (i.e. same Agenda) • Tactical shifts on "their Agenda" will not work • After plans have been accepted implementation must follow – poor record • Will need SPV's and proper agreement(s) to implement

16. Thank you