Introduction to Research Methods

1. Introduction to Research Methods The British General Election of 2005

2. 4 ways of modelling voting • Sociological model – ‘Class is the basis of British politics: all else is embellishment and detail • Downsian model – party respond to voter preference distribution, typically a Bell shaped normal curve • The voter as consumer – ‘It’s the economy stupid’ (Clinton 1992) • Michigan model (social psychology)

3. UK sociological model 1950s • Homogeneous population • Class based voting • 2 party system • Interest in class deviant voters, especially working class Conservatives • ‘Floating voters’ cross-pressured (family, class), less interested in politics

4. UK sociological model 1990s • More diverse society, many different identities, constructed rather than assigned • Fluidity, partisan dealignment • Move towards a multiple party system but limited by electoral system (contrast Netherlands) • Class voting index falls from 78 in 1966 to 27 in 1997

5. Does class still matter: Cons % lead over Labour

6. Class declines, but not irrelevant • 2001 result showed the lowest ever gap between middle class Cons. And working class Labour • Market researchers no longer use social class, but lifestyle groupings • See http://www.upmystreet.com • But still safe Cons. and Labour seats – so income level does count

7. The bell shaped normal curve

8. Downsian economic theory of democracy • Parties analogous to entrepreneurs, have single goal of election, pursued rationally • Voters converge on median voting position • Parties are united, will change policies to maximise success (or leadership has control) • Parties produce vague general ideologies • Unimodal and near-normal distribution of preferences on left-right axis • Assume fixed voter preferences

9. A robust model • Works best under first past the post system • Model influenced Labour strategy in 1997: the discovery of ‘Worcester Woman’ as the median voter • Activists may push party away from median position (zealocracy) but that does not undermine model, but confirms it

10. Biggest limitation is assumption of one left-right spectrum • A more public expenditure/government versus lower taxes/less government is still relevant, note Cameron’s conduct • Research by Sanders (British Politics, Vol 1, No.2) suggest four dimensions (there are some issues about how he measures the left-right dimension)

11. Four dimensions in 2005 election • People’s tolerance or intolerance of difference (immigration, asylum seekers) • Liberal/authoritarian dimension, attitudes towards criminals and their punishment • Traditional left-right dimension • Anti-feminist dimension (but only 15% of electorate)

12. Economic model: voters as consumers of policies • Voters choose party they think will perform best on economy • Governments that deliver prosperity will secure re-election • Those associated with economic failure tend to lose office • Voters who are better off (or think they soon will be) support government

13. Why this model goes wrong • Works quite well in 1980s and even in 1992 • ‘Black Wednesday’ 1992: Conservatives lose their reputation for economic competence • Every party that has devalued the £ has lost the following election (1949, 1967, 1992) • 1992 election Conservatives had 13% economic competence lead over Labour, by mid-1994 Labour had 30% lead

14. So why did Labour win in 1997? • Economic indicators were strong and voters’ economic perceptions were up • Voters were more concerned about public services, area where Labour had clear lead • Very positive ranking of Blair and negative perception of Conservatives (sleaze) and Major

15. So is economic model invalidated? • Even in 1997 Conservatives lost votes most among those whose economic situation had deteriorated • Electorate punishes government for failure rather than rewarding them for success? • So suppose housing market collapsed?

16. 2005 election • AB voters now 25% of electorate, crucial in seats Conservatives needed to win, but only had 35% of them compared with 54% in 1992 • Gender gap favoured Labour for first time, 6% lead over Conservatives among women (this is one area where the Conservatives are making gains)

17. 2005: age as a factor • Labour support fairly even among age groups • Liberal Democrats do poorly among 65+ age group • Conservatives lead among 55+ voters, but only get around a quarter of voters under 44

18. Issues • Labour in the lead on economy (39%), Terrorism (18%), Education (5%) • Negative ratings for Labour on health service (-10%), taxes (-13%), crime (-17%), pensions (-31%), railways (-36%), Iraq (-42%), immigration (-65%) • Conservatives establish immigration as an issue, but lack of electoral confidence in their solutions. May have reinforced ‘nasty party’ image among AB voters.

19. Can Dave win?

20. Factors that help • Redistricting of seats reduces Labour’s in built advantage, some of their safest seats abolished, e.g., Tyne Bridge • Cameron has made Downsian shift to centre, complaints from far right only make move look more credible • Some risk of losing votes to UKIP, possibly BNP • Evidence shows that tax-spend dimension affects willingness to vote Conservative

21. Just wait for Labour to fail? • Informal rule that governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them – but they still have to do their bit • Brown v. Cameron comparisons in polls are favourable to latter, but these are entirely hypothetical and Brown will get an initial poll boost

22. What Conservatives can do • Recent research shows that voters’ perceptions of the general managerial competence of rival leadership teams is of critical importance to party choice decisions • Those not interested in politics tend to use cognitive shortcuts to make voting decisions. Image of party leader is crucial, hence soft focus Dave

23. What they can do (2) • Benefit from moving closer to median voter on tax/spend • Become more tolerant of difference • Attitudes to criminals and minorities are largely independent of each other, so can still keep strong policies on law and order (hence dangers of ‘hug a hoodie’ and opposition to ID cards)

24. Likely outcome • Hung parliament very likely whatever assumptions one makes about Lib Dem vote • Conservatives can reach 38 per cent of popular vote by changing themselves • Another 2 or 3 percentage points would give Dave 4 years in Downing Street