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The terrain

3-4 July 2007 missed heavy precipitation event in the Western Swiss Alps (Or the art of forecasting precipitations in a mountainous region). The terrain. Basel. Zurich. Bern. Lausanne. Geneva. Locarno. Heavy precipitation critical thresholds in Switzerland. 50mm/24h. 100mm/24h.

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The terrain

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  1. 3-4 July 2007 missed heavy precipitation eventin the Western Swiss Alps(Or the art of forecasting precipitations in a mountainous region)

  2. The terrain Basel Zurich Bern Lausanne Geneva Locarno

  3. Heavy precipitation critical thresholds in Switzerland 50mm/24h 100mm/24h

  4. What happened? • Unseasonably strong westerly flow across the Alps. • Passage of an active frontal system in this rapid flow • Unusually active warm front and warm sector • cold front starting to wave against the Alps • Mainly large scale precipitations certainly with a convective component (but no thunderstorms)

  5. MeteoSwiss Surface analysis – 3 July 2007 12UTC

  6. UK Met Office Surface analysis – 4 July 2007 00UTC

  7. MeteoSwiss 500 hPa analysis – 3 July 2007 12UTC

  8. WV 5.35 - 7.15 µm 3 July – 18UTC Western Switzerland

  9. WV 5.35 - 7.15 µm 4 July – 00UTC Western Switzerland

  10. ECMWF 01.07.2007 00UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

  11. ECMWF 01.07.2007 12UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

  12. ECMWF 02.07.2007 00UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

  13. ECMWF 02.07.2007 12UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

  14. Region receiving more than 50mm/12h

  15. Hourly Precipitation rate in Aigle, le Bouveret and le Moléson

  16. Consequences • Floods • Landslides • Mudslides • Power outage • Fortunately no injuries or deaths!

  17. A new tool – MAP D-PHASE

  18. … and what about forecasting stratus cloud in mountainous regions?

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