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Day in Perspective

On May 29, 2014, Mark Schweitzer, Senior VP and Director of Research, presented an analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) projections regarding PCE inflation and unemployment rates. The report highlights the evolution of these projections over several periods, including midpoints of the central tendency for 2012-2016. It includes insights on Core PCE inflation year-over-year changes, the Taylor Rule implied federal funds rate path, and various analytical metrics from the Federal Reserve Board, shedding light on economic outlooks and monetary policy.

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Day in Perspective

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  1. Day in Perspective May 29th, 2014 Mark Schweitzer Senior VP & Director of Research

  2. March FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation Source: Federal Reserve Board

  3. March FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate Source: Federal Reserve Board

  4. PCE Inflation Projection Evolution Midpoint of the central tendency (Q4/Q4 percent change) - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  5. Core PCE Inflation Projection Evolution Midpoint of the central tendency (Q4/Q4 percent change) June 2013 SEP Dec 2013 SEP - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  6. FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation Year-over-year percent change - Core PCE Inflation - March 2013 SEP central tendency - June 2013 SEP central tendency Source: Federal Reserve Board, BEA

  7. FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation Year-over-year percent change - Core PCE Inflation - September 2013 SEP central tendency - December 2013 SEP central tendency Source: Federal Reserve Board, BEA

  8. Unemployment Rate Projection Evolution Midpoint of the central tendency (Q4 average) Dec 2013 SEP June 2013 SEP - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  9. Taylor Rule Implied FFR Path Percent - March 2013 SEP - June 2013 SEP - December 2013 SEP Source: Federal Reserve Board, Author’s Calculation

  10. FOMC Projections: Fed Funds Rate Percent 2015 2013 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  11. FOMC Projections: Fed Funds Rate Percent 2015 2013 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Board

  12. Day in Perspective May 29th, 2014 Mark Schweitzer Senior VP & Director of Research

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