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Nestl é Module 4: Simple Analysis & Parsimonious Forecasting

Nestl é Module 4: Simple Analysis & Parsimonious Forecasting. Dan Finan. Coffee Production Industry. Agenda. Brief overview EPAT Calculation RNEA Calculation EPM Calculation EATO Calculation Sales growth Parsimonious Forecasting Sales, EPAT, NEA Industry analysis?. Overview.

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Nestl é Module 4: Simple Analysis & Parsimonious Forecasting

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  1. NestléModule 4: Simple Analysis & Parsimonious Forecasting Dan Finan

  2. Coffee Production Industry

  3. Agenda • Brief overview • EPAT Calculation • RNEA Calculation • EPM Calculation • EATO Calculation • Sales growth • Parsimonious Forecasting • Sales, EPAT, NEA • Industry analysis?

  4. Overview • Primary Goal: To gather information useful in forming expectations of future payoffs. • Utilize EPM and EATO, which comprise RNEA, and also YoY sales growth. • We examine this information over time, and across firms (but not for Nestle…) • We want to paint a picture of future enterprise profitability and the enterprise’s use of its assets by looking at past performance.

  5. EPAT Calculation

  6. RNEA Calculation • Fairly consistent YoY

  7. EPM Calculation • Very consistent; I will use the average of the EPM values from 2010-2013, which is roughly 10.95%.

  8. EATO Calculation • Fairly consistent; I will use the average of the EPM values from 2011-2013, which is 1.25.

  9. Sales Growth • Not very consistent at all; however, Nestle’s expanding operations and strong leadership lead me to believe they will turn around last year’s negative results. • I will use 2.00%.

  10. Parsimonious Forecasting

  11. Questions?

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