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Presidential Declarations of Disaster: A Catastrophe Declaration?

Presidential Declarations of Disaster: A Catastrophe Declaration?. By Prof. Rick Sylves ( sylves@udel.edu ) Dept. of Political Science & International Relations University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716 And Engineering Management & Systems Engineering George Washington University

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Presidential Declarations of Disaster: A Catastrophe Declaration?

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  1. Presidential Declarations of Disaster:A Catastrophe Declaration? • By Prof. Rick Sylves (sylves@udel.edu) • Dept. of Political Science & International • Relations • University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716 • And Engineering Management & Systems Engineering • George Washington University • 302-345-6876 cell Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  2. Topic: The Politics and Policy of Emergency Management: A Status Report • Description: A status report on revision of the FEMA Higher Education-sponsored Instructor Guide (IG), Political and Policy Basis of Emergency Management being prepared by Professor Rick Sylves. Revised IG includes material on President Obama’s administration and its policies regarding both FEMA and emergency management. • Presenters:Professor Richard Sylves, Ph.D. • Department of Political Science & International Relations • University of Delaware • and Engineering Management and Systems Engineering • George Washington University • sylves@UDel.Edu Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  3. Presidential Disaster Declarations • Types of presidential declarations pertaining to disaster: • 1) Major Disaster [DR] (issued serially since May 1953, most common, 1,912 as of today, see http://www.fema.gov/news/disasters.fema ); and www.peripresdecusa.org my site. • 2) Emergency [EM] (since 1974, issued for imminent disasters or for life safety, rescue help, capped at $5 mil, 312 issued) • 3) Catastrophe (details of this type still being worked out: none issued so far) • Who can ask for them: only governors of states can ask. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  4. Solomonic Judgments • The Federal Government has suggested objective criteria by which to approve or deny Governor requests for Presidential Declarations of major disasters or emergencies, but the president is free to disregard this criteria and judge Governor requests on a case by case. • Each event or incident is evaluated individually on its own merits. The criteria set forth in the Stafford Act for evaluation are: • 1. The severity and magnitude of the incident; • 2. The impact of the event; and, • 3. Whether the incident is beyond the capabilities of the State and affected local governments. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  5. Why Presidential Declarations of Disaster Matter • Why do presidents sometimes turn down requests governors have made for Presidential Declarations? • Governors ask Presidents to issue them, odds of approval from 1953-2004 are 2 in 3, & 1989-2008, 3 in 4 • How is the world of presidential disaster declarations changing? FEMA’s incorporation into the Department of Homeland Security, National Incident Management System, National Response Framework, new terror threats with catastrophic consequences, including bioterror. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  6. Turndowns as Endangered Species • “TURNDOWN” refers to the action authorized by the President and signed by the FEMA Director which denies a Governor’s request for a major disaster or emergency Declaration. • It is noteworthy that the White House announces Presidential “approvals” of Major Disaster and Emergency declarations, while it is left to FEMA (1979-2003) and DHS-FEMA (2003-today) to announce that the President has “turned down” a Governor’s request for a declaration. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  7. Pres. Bush signs pre-disaster emergency declaration for states in the path of Hurricane Katrina before landfall Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  8. Pres. Obama signs disaster declaration for winter storms of 2010 Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  9. Let’s Talk Politics of Disaster • Natural disasters also produce conditions that allow political leaders to show their concern for citizens' needs and demands. • Government leaders who successfully address disaster related problems are likely to be rewarded politically, while those leaders who are unwilling or unable to act may suffer negative political repercussions. • Emergency management often suffers political interference in the response and recovery stages. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  10. Today’s Talk • Declaring Catastrophe? • Conceptual View #1: The Politics of Declaring Catastrophe • Conceptual View #2: The Policy Issues Surrounding Catastrophe Declarations • Conceptual View #3: The Administration of Catastrophic Disaster Declarations Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  11. First Principles • I am not going to waste your time trying to define what a catastrophe means and what a major disaster means. • This talk specifically explores what it means if the president is granted or exercises the authority to declare an event a “catastrophe,” on top of authority he already has to declare a “major disaster” and an “emergency.” • In the final slide set we can mull over what types of things win declarations and what things do not. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  12. Catastrophe in Federal Parlance • A catastrophic event could result in, • sustained national impacts over a prolonged period of time; • almost immediately exceeds resources normally available to State, local, tribal, and private sector authorities; • and significantly interrupts governmental operations and emergency services to such an extent that national security could be threatened. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  13. Catastrophic Incidents • Catastrophic Incidents are, “Any natural or manmade incident, including terrorism, which results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, and national morale and/or government functions.” Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  14. “Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006” • Subtitle B, Chapter 2 –Emergency Management Capabilities • Sec. 631. State Catastrophic Incident Annex. This section amends section 613 of the Stafford Act to require State and local governments to include catastrophic incident annexes as part of their planning in order to be eligible to receive FEMA funds. The specific requirements for such catastrophic incident annexes are delineated. • Of course the President could make such a declaration but it has no legal meaning since defined in PKEMA of 2006 but not incorporated as trigger in any other statute. Email 12 May 2010 William Cumming to Sylves Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  15. View #1: Politics of Catastrophe Declaration - Factors Presidential Level Considerations • National Security implications of event • International implications of the event • Affect of event on national economy • Presidential image issues • Threshold and Criteria Judgments • Ideological, electoral, and partisan implications • Presidential-Congressional relations • Significance of precedents set by declaring an event a catastrophe. • Others we can add. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  16. View #1: Politics of Catastrophe Factors Congressional Level Considerations • What does catastrophe declaration authority mean for home states and districts, constituents, interest groups, etc.? • How will this affect committee and subcommittee jurisdiction? • Will this augment presidential power at the expense of Congress? • How can lawmakers press for catastrophe threshold and criteria definitions favorable to important political interests? • Will catastrophe declarations increase the size and power of the Federal Executive at the expense of both Congress and sub-national government? • Others we can name. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  17. Disasters and catastrophes test governments and their political systems. Failed disaster management risks substantial loss of political legitimacy. “Out of power” political opponents and their parties capitalize on the disaster management failures of the governing party and its officialdom. Disasters and Political Legitimacy BP oil platform burns in Gulf Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  18. View #2 Policy Issues of Catastrophe Declaration Presidential Level Considerations • Legal implications, what difference does a new disaster declaration category mean in law? • Does adding declaration authority for catastrophe augment presidential authority or restrain it? • Will Congress define the difference between a major disaster and a catastrophe or will the president? • How will this affect president-governor relations? • How will this affect the President’s relations with Federal department and agency leaders? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  19. View #2 Policy Issues of Catastrophe Declaration Congressional Level Considerations • Redistribution issues, federal taxpayer subsidies state and local government, and insurance industry • Does adding declaration authority for catastrophe require more funding for the President’s Disaster Fund? • Will Congress define the difference between a major disaster and a catastrophe or will the president? • How will this affect president-governor relations? • Can catastrophe declarations be issued for any and all types of terrorist attacks? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  20. Emphasis on facilitating change and creating public value, most particularly through disaster mitigation and preparedness activity. Emphasis on leadership that is entrepreneurial and adept at drawing in free or inexpensive help through co-production efforts and public-private partnerships. These points are an adaptation of Frederickson and Smith’s public management theory. See H. George Frederickson and Kevin B. Smith, The Public Administration Theory Primer (Cambridge, MA: Westview Press, 2003): Table 5.2, 113. Craig Fugate is Pres. Obama’s FEMA Administrator Emergency Management as Policy Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  21. View #3 Administrative Issues of Catastrophe Declaration Presidential Level Considerations • How will this affect the scale of federal disaster response? The number of participants in response? • How will this affect budgeting of funds for federal disaster response? Will new accounts be needed within various federal departments and agencies? • How will this affect jurisdiction assignments among federal departments and agencies? Will the National Response Framework and National Incident Management System have to be refashioned? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  22. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  23. View #3 Administrative Issues of Catastrophe Declaration Presidential and Congressional Level Considerations • How will intergovernmental program administration be affected by a catastrophe declaration? • Will administrators run amok in envisioning catastrophic possibilities, just as they did for terrorism vulnerability? • Will disaster mitigation efforts be helped or hurt by envisioning catastrophe scenarios? • How will oversight be conducted? It is tough enough now to evaluate the success or failure of disaster management programs, how would one go about evaluating catastrophe management systems? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  24. Yes, yes, I know, highly unreadable. This is a snapshot of how the National Incident Management System works under The National Response Framework. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  25. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  26. Talk Amongst Yourselves • Will a catastrophe declaration be symbolic or real? • If “symbolic” it may merely be an exhortation to the public and responders that an event is a “big deal” but still simply a major disaster. • If “real” it will mean there is a distinction between a major disaster and a catastrophe, which must be determined via presidential discretion, Congress made law, and in federal regulation. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  27. Distinction between types of declarations • At present the distinctions between “emergency,” “major disaster,” and “catastrophe” are federal cost driven. • Distinction between an “emergency” and a “major” is that emergencies are less than $5 million (emergencies do not require determination of need, and emergencies are often issued before an event transpires). • If I recall FEMA defines catastrophe as any event exceeding $580 million (needs verification) Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  28. Problems of Catastrophe Declaration • Could a President ever “turn down” a governor’s request for a declaration of catastrophe and won’t all governors frame their disasters as catastrophes? • Is there such a thing as “catastrophe preparedness” and how will this be different from emergency preparedness or disaster preparedness? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  29. Open Questions and More Problems • If FEMA posits thresholds for major disaster qualification now (which the president can ignore), will it also be asked to posit thresholds for catastrophe (which the president can ignore) • If FEMA does posit thresholds, how will governors know whether or not their event fits the federal definition of a catastrophe? • FEMA categories of disaster type now span the alphabet at 26; can catastrophe transpire in each type? Which ones cannot escalate to catastrophe? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  30. Even more Questions and Problems • What happens to “all hazards” emergency management when there is a catastrophe declaration type? • What types or categories of events will constitute catastrophe? • If catastrophe is judged by total loss and “speed of onset” is not an issue, then global warming and climate change may be declarable catastrophes. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  31. Federalism and Soldiers • Will catastrophes transcend state borders and become a new national type of incident? Eliminating the need to wait for governor declaration requests? • What role will the active duty military have in catastrophe that it does not now have under major disaster declarations and the NRF? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  32. TRIA’s Dilemma Repeated? • Let’s compare the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) to a revised Stafford Act with a catastrophe declaration type- • Congress has deliberately left undetemined the definition of an act of Terrorism, under which TRIA would take effect. Now in limbo at the Treasury Dept. • Won’t this happen with a catastrophe declaration too – that is, determining what qualifies and what does not is a determination best left undecided until events force a decision. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  33. Catastrophes of old • Since 1950, the U.S. has arguably experienced several disasters that may be labeled catastrophes. • How would the U.S. government have been expected to respond to and recover from these events if they had been designated “catastrophes” at the time they occurred? My “so what” question. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  34. Catastrophe without Declaration? • Can the matter of catastrophic disaster declarations be bypassed if annexes for catastrophe are added on to existing policy (as is being done), the president merely continues issuing major disaster and emergency declarations, and major disasters escalate to catastrophe status as a matter of accounting for a major disaster’s magnitude, loss of life, loss of property, economic impact, national security implications, etc.? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  35. The Crux of the Catastrophe Conundrum • Certainly, the broader authority to judge what is or is not a disaster under the Stafford Act of 1988 has provided Presidents with more latitude to approve unusual or “marginal” events as disasters or emergencies. This may be one reason for the higher Governor-request success rate since 1988. • Moreover, the Homeland Security Act of 2002 and a succession of Homeland Security Presidential Directives issued by President George W. Bush have added a substantial pool of terrorism-related disaster agents (and types of targets or eventualities) to the panoply of presidentially declarable events. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  36. Muddling and Piling On • Has the presidential disaster declaration system become muddled and confused by being conflated with national security matters, terrorism, pandemics, national special security events, etc.? • Are the definitions of disaster and catastrophe becoming so distorted and boundless that we are running the government as 7/24 crisis management with normalcy fast disappearing? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  37. My Assertions • Presidential turndowns of the vast majority of governor requests for presidential declarations are overwhelmingly administrative, apolitical determinations. • What constitutes a declarable disaster changes in subtle ways from president to president. • Heavy news media coverage, especially national media coverage, plays a major role in compelling modern presidents to issue declarations for marginal events that would not have earned declarations previously. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  38. Post-modern view of disaster • Are disasters today socially and politically constructed phenomena? • Disaster policy in the U.S. is event-driven in many respects. • Owing to the newsworthiness of disaster and the enhanced capacity of news media to cover disaster, the press of disaster news coverage induces policymakers to respond to disaster victims and to other unmet needs highlighted by disaster coverage. If there is no news coverage of a disaster, is there then no disaster? Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  39. Media coverage of disaster helps drive up the number of governor requested presidential declarations issued Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  40. Closing Comments • Changes in presidential disaster declaration law, policy and authority, plus the emergency spending authority available to presidents, has over time encouraged a federalization of emergency management and has dramatically expanded the definition of what constitutes a disaster deserving of national mobilization. • The 9/11/01 terror disaster has helped move the President and Congress toward the nationalization of domestic natural and human-caused disasters and emergencies of any type such that they are all now considered part of a national “incident” management system. All disasters and emergencies are now defined as “incidents” and the “mother of all” terror incidents to date is the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

  41. Professor Sylves in an emergency By Prof. Rick Sylves (sylves@udel.edu) Dept. of Political Science & International Relations University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716 Don’t lend him a hand, he’ll pull you over the edge! Prof. Sylves for FEMA Higher Ed Conf 10 June 2010

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