Planning for Climate Change

1. Planning for Climate Change Lara Whitely Binder Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington October 16, 2007US EPA Region X Climate Change Series Climate science in the public interest

2. Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference • Written by the CIG and King County, WA in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • Written to compliment ICLEI’s “Climate Resilient Communities” Program • Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml

3. Responding to Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation Adaptation activities Focus on developing the capacity to manage the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are debated and enacted. Focus of the CIG. Mitigation activities Focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases

4. What Is Adaptive Planning? “climate proof”

5. What Is Adaptive Planning? Aims to increase community and ecosystem resilience to climate change by taking steps to proactively reduce the risks associated with climate change. Most importantly… “Adaptation is not one activity or decision, but rather a continuous set of activities, actions, decisions, and attitudes undertaken by individuals, groups, and governments.” -- Adger et al. 2005

6. Why Adaptive Planning?.... • Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable. • Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities. • Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes. • In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in the first place. (And there may be benefits…)

7. 21stCentury Global Warming IPCC “best estimate” range of global-scale warming by the 2090s: 3.2°F-7.2°F Warming in the next few decades driven by current atmospheric GHG concentrations Data source: IPCC 2001

8. Projected 21st Century PNW Warming • Mean change: +2°F (2020s), +3°F (2040s) • Rate of change expected to be 3x greater • Warming expected in all seasons +2.9ºF (1.4-4.6ºF) +1.9ºF (0.7-3.2ºF) Changes relative to 1970-1999 More detail on the CIG scenarios is available at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml

9. Why Adaptive Planning (cont’d)?.... • Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable. • Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities. • Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes. • In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in the first place. (And there may be benefits…)

10. The real cause of the melting ice caps

11. Planning for Climate Change • Collect and review basic information on climate change impacts to your region • Build internal and external support for climate change preparedness • Create your preparedness team • Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change • Develop and implement your preparedness plan • Measure your progress and update your plan

12. Planning for Climate Change at EPA At the agency and program level (via cross-disciplinary team and program-level teams): • Collect and review basic information on climate change impacts to Region X • Review EPA programs and regulations for climate change impacts. • Which programs/regs govern resources likely to be affected by climate change? • How will climate change affect the objectives of those programs/regs? • How adaptive are the programs/regs? (Look for qualities that limit adaptive capacity)

13. Qualities That Limit Adaptive Capacity • The resource is already stressed by current climate in ways that limit adaptation to future climate change; • Other non-climate trends are likely to increase stress on the resource; • The resource’s ability to adapt is physically limited; • Management of the resource is highly fragmented; and/or • The policies, etc. affecting a resource are inflexible to projected changes (see “red flags”).

14. Policy “Red Flags” Flexibility is essential.Characteristics of policies governing climate-sensitive resources that can limit adaptability: • Policies that do not allow regular re-evaluation and adjustment in accordance with changing conditions • Policies that require planning based only on the past, or pin certain decisions/triggers to certain periods or seasonal patterns (e.g., FEMA regs) • Policies that reinforce trends that increase vulnerability or reduce adaptability (e.g., development along flood plains)

15. EPA Planning cont’d Question to consider (cont’d): • How should these programs/regs be modified (if at all) to take climate change into account? • What other stakeholders need to be involved in modifying EPA programs/regs? • Develop and implement your plan for integrating climate change into EPA programs, regs, grants. • Build internal and external support for climate change preparedness with EPA and among EPA’s constituents • Measure your progress and update your plan

16. Guiding Principles for Planning • Increase public awareness of climate change and projected impacts • Develop and maintain technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts • “Mainstream” information about climate change vulnerabilities, risks, and preparedness into planning, policy, and investment decisions • Increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural, and human systems in your community. • Strengthen community partnerships that reduce vulnerability and risk.

18. General Implementation Tools • Zoning rules and regulations • Taxation (including tax incentives) • Building codes/design standards • Utility rates/fee setting • Public safety rules and regulations • Issuance of bonds • Infrastructure development • Permitting and enforcement • Best management practices • Outreach and education • Emergency management powers • Partnership building with other communities

23. Planning for Uncertainty Look to implement • “No regrets” strategies Provides benefits now with or without climate change (e.g., water conservation program) • “Low regrets” strategies Provide climate change benefits for little additional cost or risk (e.g., adding 10% capacity rather than 5%) • “Win-win” strategies Reduce climate change impacts while providing other environmental, social, or economic benefits (e.g., wetlands protection)

24. Current PNW State Efforts • Washington “PAWGs” (Preparation/Adaptation Work Groups) • Formed under the Gov’s Climate Change Challenge • Coasts, Human Health, Forests, Agriculture, Water • Recommendations to Gov. due December 2007 • Oregon Climate Change Integration Group • Natural Systems (ecosystems and organisms), Human Services (public health, emergency management), Built Environment (buildings and infrastructure), Economic Systems • Drafts in preparation

25. Summary • Global and regional climate is already changing • These changes are expected to accelerate in the coming decades • Changes in snowpack and streamflow caused by rising temperatures will have important consequences for resources across the Pacific Northwest • The information and the tools to begin planning for climate change exist now

26. More information on PNW climate impacts and planning for climate change is available from The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig Lara Whitely Binder lwb123@u.washington.edu