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The Canadian Pension system and its Reform

The Canadian Pension system and its Reform. Prepared by Allan Moscovitch For the Council on Aging Ottawa, March 2012. The Pension System. In retirement, people rely on a combination of Public pensions OAS and GIS Minimum Income Programs – Tax revenues

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The Canadian Pension system and its Reform

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  1. The Canadian Pension system and its Reform Prepared by Allan Moscovitch For the Council on Aging Ottawa, March 2012

  2. The Pension System • In retirement, people rely on a combination of • Public pensions • OAS and GIS Minimum Income Programs – Tax revenues • C/QPP – Social Insurance – Premiums paid by employees and employers • Social assistance • Registered Pension Plans • Other private pensions • Personal savings – including RRSPs, RRIFs, TFSA, Investments, Insurance, housing • Employment income • Support from family members

  3. Public Pensions • The Public Pension System • Old Age Security • Guaranteed Income Supplement • Canada and Quebec Pension Plans • Social assistance

  4. The Old Age Security (OAS) • $540.12 per month or • $6481.44 per year • Received by 4,764,820 Canadians in 2010-2011 • Available to everyone who has lived in Canada for 40 years since the age of 18 • The OAS is indexed to inflation • The OAS is taxable income

  5. OAS Claw back • The OAS is subject to a clawback at $69,562 for 2012 • For every dollar ($1.00) of income above the threshold, the amount of the OAS pension reduces by 15 cents •  All OAS is clawed back at $112,772 in 2012

  6. Growth in OAS Beneficiaries http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/isp/statistics/cppstatbook/statbook2011.shtml#t3

  7. How much are we spending on the OAS?(in Billions)http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/isp/statistics/cppstatbook/statbook2011.shtml#t3

  8. Persons in elderly families LIM measure after tax, 1977-2009

  9. % persons in elderly families below LICO, after tax, annual dollars, 1992 base, 1977-2009

  10. % Elderly females below LIM measure after tax

  11. % elderly females below LICO, after tax, annual dollars, 1992 base, 1977-2007

  12. After tax poverty rate for seniors, 1976-2007

  13. After tax poverty rates by age

  14. Are we doing something right? • The data suggest that public policy is having a strong impact leading to the reduction in poverty rates for people over the age of 65 • The combination of the OAS, the GIS, the C/QPP and the tax system have brought down the poverty rates • There is still more to be done, in bringing down the rates of poverty for single elderly women. • Increasing the age of eligibility for the OAS will not improve the economic conditions of many people who depend on it particularly those with low incomes

  15. The Reform of OAs • It is the upward trend of numbers of beneficiaries as the baby boomers retire, and • The increasing expenditure on the OAS that have been the subject of attention recently from conservative policy analysts and Conservative politicians • An additional concern - seniors (people aged 65 and over) represented 8% of the population in 1971, 14% in 2011 and are likely to represent almost 25% by 2036.

  16. Projected pension costs to 2035 • Historical and Projected Provincial/Territorial Health Expenditures and CPP/OAS Expenditures (Including GIS and Administration Costs), as a Share of GDP • Sources: For health care data – Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Fiscal Sustainability Report, 18 February 2010, and authors’ calculations; for CPP/OAS data – Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan, 2010, and Actuarial Report on the Old Age Security Program, 2008. Some Public Policy Implications of an Aging Population HaviEchenberg, James Gauthier, André Léonard, Library of Parliament, http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/CurrentEmergingIssues-e.pdf

  17. Reform Possibilities • A major issue for the Conservatives is wanting to make government smaller. The reduction in the GST was intended to push in this direction. • The recent expansion of government expenditures was forced on them by a minority parliament. • Doing nothing is an effective option since the OAS is not broken – its helping to reduce senior poverty • With increasing GDP, while expenditures on the OAS increase, they will not increase substantially as a % of government revenues unless governments decide to reduce taxation

  18. Total tax revenues as a percentage of GDP, 2003 OECD Fact book 2006 - Economic, Environmental and Social statistics

  19. Public social expenditure as a percentage of GDP, 2001OECD Factbook 2006 - Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics

  20. Reform possibilities • The Conservatives have talked about the OAS as a burden on the federal government. They have floated the idea of increasing the age of eligibility of the OAS from 65 to 67. • Were this implemented it would have to be phased in so that it does not affect anyone currently retired or planning to retire in the next 10 years. • But an increase in the age of eligibility will have the effect of depriving low and moderate income seniors of significant income for two years. • What are the implications?

  21. Reform Possibilities • The result is likely to be some combination of: • An increase in measured poverty among seniors • More seniors in the labour force longer if they can which means fewer jobs for people attempting to either enter or move to better paid positions • More emphasis on savings for those who can save and avoid the impact especially through the government’s new tax free savings plans • Use of the TFSAs will means less income tax revenues • Lower incomes is directly related to poorer health outcomes which may cost more than the savings

  22. Some Other considerations • Seniors pay taxes including on the OAS that they receive. • A very small percentage of seniors are subject to the clawback indicating a need for public pensions • In general Canada does not spend a high percentage of GDP on social programs

  23. What is the purpose of OAS reform? • Reduce OAS expenditures because the OAS is unaffordable – not clear that it is unaffordable. • Reduce government expenditures – this may be a Conservative goal but is it the consensus of Canadians? • Require more people to depend on their own resources instead of government – a Conservative goal but for many people it is unrealistic – they do not have the resources. • Reduce the deficit and debt – could seek new forms of taxation as the economy recovers-

  24. The Benefits of the OAS • Helps keeps large numbers of the population out of poverty (in combination with the GIS) • Puts income in the hands of people who spend it which keeps the economy moving. • Sends a message to most Canadians that in retirement there are still some forms of social solidarity that almost everyone can benefit from and depend on

  25. Reform Alternatives • Are there alternatives for governments determined to reduce OAS expenditures? • Hold or reduce the level at which the clawback begins to an amount less than $69,562. • Increase the clawback rate on a progressive basis ie 15% to 20% at $79,000 to 25% at $89,000, and then 30% on the rest so that it takes a little more faster. • Neither of these changes would have the same impact on low and moderate income seniors as an increase in the age of eligibility would

  26. Reform alternatives • Monica Townson writing for the CCPA earlier this year, points to the fact that income from a TFSA is not counted in establishing eligibility for the GIS. http://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/National%20Office/2012/02/OAS.pdf • This is likely to have the effect of increasing eligibility for the GIS • She is pointing to the way that the income tax has been used by successive governments to provide benefits especially to higher income earners • It may be desirable to increase the eligibility for the GIS to people with incomes just above the previous limits

  27. Reform Alternatives • But another choice is to alter the range of tax based benefits used to support private pensions. • For example the net tax benefit (taxes lost) due to the RRSP in 2010 was $12.125 billion per year, much of which goes to individuals and households with high incomes. • The tax expenditure for 2010 for RPPs was $16.790 billion • CPP premium deductibility is worth another $8.240 billion to employers and employees

  28. Reform Alternatives • Lastly, here’s an idea in the other direction. • First establish a modest income security tax as a percentage of gross income. • Second, use the revenues to create a pension fund to support continuing the OAS into the future. • Third, as the fund expands, with rising incomes, use the additional funds to increase the OAS.

  29. Thank you for listening and participating The End

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