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Author: Gemma Asero Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy

ITALY: AN OVERVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY. Author: Gemma Asero Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy. WHY. The purpose of this work is to offer an overview on Italian economy and demography since the end of Nineties to 2009. HOW.

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Author: Gemma Asero Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy

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  1. ITALY: AN OVERVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY Author: Gemma Asero Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy

  2. WHY The purpose of this work is to offer an overview on Italian economy and demography since the end of Nineties to 2009.

  3. HOW • Using ISTAT, EUROSTAT and IMF data collections; • Analyzing data, extracted on June 2009, both over time and by making a comparison between Italy and Europe and also between Italy and the other six world’s advanced economies (G7 countries); • Looking at some forecast and estimate for 2010.

  4. 1959: 50 million inhabitants Natural growth and migratory component 2008: 60 million inhabitants The Italian demographic growth has assured by a positive migratory balance with abroad In 2008, Italian population, live births and deaths increased respect to 2007

  5. Resident population on 31° December 2008 and increase from 2007 by geographical areas -Istat-

  6. Demographic indicators of national demographic balance, Italy, 2008 -Istat- 6

  7. In 2009, decrease of real GDP growth rate by 4.4 but forecasts for 2010 show the possibility a fair recover will take place Privatefinal consumption expenditure > the government one. Both increased in the first quarter of 2009 In 2008, tertiary sector was the most important one in the origin of Italian GDP

  8. GDP per capita at current market prices in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS),2008 (EU-27=100)-Eurostat- 8

  9. Origin GDP, Italy, 2008 (%)-Eurostat-

  10. Gross value added at basic prices, EU-27, 2008 (% share of total gross values added)-Eurostat- 10

  11. Privatefinal consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data (Million EUR)-Eurostat-

  12. Governmentfinal consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data (Million EUR)-Eurostat- 12

  13. In 2008, Italian public finances in dire straits: public deficit = 2.7 % of GDP and debt = 105.8 % of GDP In 2008, Italy was at no. 24 in world rankings according to General Government Balance. In 2009 and in 2010, public balance more in deficit than the EU-27 and EA-16 Italy has one of the highest debt levels in the Euro area and it seems they will increase more in next 2 years, although Italy is trying to carry out a fiscal strengthening

  14. General government gross debt, G7 countries, 1997-2010 (% of GDP)-Eurostat-

  15. General government balance G7 countries, 2000-2010 (% of GDP) -Eurostat- 15

  16. Annual average long term interest rates similar to the Euro area ones (+ 0.2%), slightly lower than the US ones. Japan, the lowest ones Annual percentage change average consumer prices: highest values among the European G7 countries Inflation rate: similar trend to the EU average (’97-’08). Slowdown in Italian inflation reflected decrease of national prices level

  17. Annual change on consumer prices index, Italy, January 2008-June 2009 (%) -Istat-

  18. HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%)Part I -Eurostat-

  19. HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part II -Eurostat- 19

  20. Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs), G7 countries and EU-27, 1998-2010 (%)-IMF, Eurostat-

  21. > exports from the extra-EU area (+ 2.3 %) and < from the EU-area countries (-2.4 %) 1997-2008: external trade, generalized increase of imports and exports May’08-’09: Total foreign trade, imports more affected by reduction of Italian commercial flows. Opposite in trade with EU countries Deficit both in the average value of goods imported from EU countries and from extra-EU area

  22. Italian exports, imports and balances trade with UE and in total, May 2009-Istat- 22

  23. Development of external trade, Italy ( thousands EUR)-Eurostat-

  24. Trade of Italy with EU-27 and external to EU-27 (%) -Eurostat-

  25. Current account transactions, Italy, 1997-2008 (1 000 million ECU/EUR)-Eurostat- 25

  26. In 2008, male’s population represented the most part of the Italian active population although its weight on the total decreased Labour market conditions have worsened as a result of the ongoing crisis: growth in employment in 2008 lower than growth in the number of unemployed people (-) self-employed workers and (+) in employees || stability of standard employment in 2008 compared with 2007 In 2008, unemployment grew once again involving men to a greater extent

  27. Active population, Italy, 1998-2008-Eurostat- 27

  28. Employment and unemployment rates by gender, Italy, 1997-2007 (%)-Eurostat- 28

  29. Unemployment rate (% of total labour force) and employment rate (million of persons) G7 countries, 2008 -IMF- 29

  30. CONCLUSIONS • The worldwide economic slowdown is likely to hit Italy hard. • The recession is likely to extend through much of 2009, with a slow pick-up in 2010. • Falling export growth and deteriorating financial conditions have hit investment hard. • Unemployment will rise significantly while inflation will decline slowly. • The authorities have rightly abstained from significant discretionary fiscal expansion, while redirecting some spending within the existing budget envelope to better sustain domestic demand, notably private consumption. • The budget deficit will nevertheless increase substantially in 2009 as the recession hits revenues, and may increase somewhat further in 2010 despite the planned fiscal consolidation.

  31. For any further inquiry, please do not hesitate to contact Gemma Asero E-mail address:marzolina@hotmail.it Gsm: +39.333.1043568 (Italy) +352.621.594020(Luxembourg)

  32. Thank you for your attention

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