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April 2014 Monthly Climate Review: ENSO Forecast, Severe Weather Events, and Rainfall Analysis

The April 2014 monthly climate review includes insights on the ENSO forecast and its implications for rainfall patterns in Pensacola, along with notable weather events such as Cyclone Hellen in the Mozambique Channel. The report highlights severe weather instances, including tornadoes and hail, and compares monthly precipitation anomalies in various regions. Special attention is given to the impacts of the Marine Layer and backdoor fronts, drought conditions, and thorough verification of outlooks for March and April. Future projections for May and the MJJ period are also discussed.

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April 2014 Monthly Climate Review: ENSO Forecast, Severe Weather Events, and Rainfall Analysis

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  1. MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW APRIL 2014 Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Pensacola rains Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)

  2. CONTENTS *Tropics -ENSO [Neutral] -MJO *Extra-tropics *Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks *Drought *Selected Weather Events *Outlooks (May & MJJ 2014 & MDO)

  3. I. The Tropics

  4. LATESTMONTHLYINDICES

  5. LATEST MONTHLY INDICES

  6. 850-hPa Wind MJO update 5/5: Westerly DNs diminished across south- east I.O. & southern Maritime Continent; increased over e/c-Pacific

  7. 200-hPa Wind MJO update 5/5: Background state has contributed to Easterlies expanding to IDL Westerly DNs expand east to M.C.* *M.C. = Maritime Continent

  8. SST & Anomalies Subsurface 200m 200m

  9. SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region CFSv2 NMME & inputs (10th) CPC/IRI CPC Consolidation

  10. II. The Extra-Tropics

  11. Northern Hemisphere SLP 500-hPa Severnaya Zemlya

  12. Southern Hemisphere SLP 500-hPa

  13. Global Temperatures

  14. Global Precipitation ITCZ

  15. Precipitation

  16. Hawaiian Rainfall (April 2014) Mean precipitation derived from CPC Unified Daily gauge analysis Special thanks to Pingping & Mingyue for these plots! Used raw analysis at 0.125deg lat/lon resolution Orographic effects of Hawaiian Rainfall best represented in Oahu

  17. Hawaiian Rainfall (April 2014) Total (inches) Departure (inches) Lihue 0.7 Lihue -1.6 Kahului +1.0 Kahului 2.5 Honolulu -0.3 Honolulu 0.3 ? Int’l Airport in west part of city has normal of 0.63”; some sources say “Honolulu” (non-airport site?) gets ~1.5” Hilo 13.4 Hilo +1.8 Prelim data from NWSFO Honolulu, HI (Monthly Weather Summary)

  18. III. Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks

  19. * * Rick Thoman, Fairbanks WFO

  20. Marine Layer / Backdoor Fronts?

  21. IV. Drought

  22. DROUGHT MONITOR April 1 April 29 Easing Worsening

  23. Monthly-Average Stream flow for the month of year CPC Soil Moisture Anomaly APRIL 2014 MARCH 2014

  24. V. Selected Weather Events

  25. Severe Weather (April 2014) Tornadoes Hail Straight-line Winds

  26. Severe Weather (April 27-29) Tornadoes: 36 / 108 / 13 Severe Hail (1”+): 107 / 59 / 34……….. Large Hail (2”+): 6 / 2 / 2 Severe Winds (50 kts +): 105 / 173 / 60…… High Winds (65 kts +): 1 / 0 / 2

  27. (minimal) Typhoon Tapah* http://www.earthweek.com/2014/ew140502/ew140502e.gif *Tapah: may refer to a Malaysian species of huge freshwater catfish, called Wallago attu

  28. Typhoon Tapah High surf & occasionally gusty winds to Guam & the Northern Marianas NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP; Tapah ~150 NM northeast of Saipan http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/20140429.030347.npp_.viirs_.visible.tc1406wtapah.res1km_covg99p14_0.jpg

  29. Typhoon Tapah Cloud tops ~ -52C NASA Aqua 4/29 03:47 UTC http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/2014/tapahthrough.jpg Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen

  30. April 29-30 Slow-moving Storm 29th 29th 29th 30th

  31. Very Heavy Rainfall & Sinkholes Pensacola n/c-Baltimore Charles Village neighborhood 4/30/14 Interesting Stats (WFO): Pensacola: 29.53” of rain in April…. 25.21” above normal… Wettest April & wettest month ever recorded… BALTIMORE CITY... (NWSFO) HAMILTON 6.50 COCORAHS NE BALTIMORE 6.26 PUBLIC 1 N MOUNT WASHINGTON 5.96 COCORAHS MD SCIENCE CENTER 5.77 KDMH ASOS Mobile: 18.09” of rain in April… 13.30” above normal… Wettest April ever & 8th wettest month… Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin: Pensacola: 20.47” (April 29-30)” www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20140430-severe_weather_maryland.jpg.ece/BINARY/w620x413/Severe_Weather_Maryland.jpg www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20140430-deluge-pounds-florida-alabama-storm-moves-up-east-coast.ece

  32. VI. Outlooks for May & MJJ 2014 & MDO

  33. MAY TEMP MAY PRCP MJJ TEMP MJJ PRCP

  34. I will bench-press CPC for breakfast !! !

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