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매설배관의 파손 및 위험성 평가

매설배관의 파손 및 위험성 평가. 중앙대학교 윤 기 봉. IAP (Integrity Assessment Program). Failure probability 예측 : impractical Relative risk assessment : index-based methodology pipeline risk assessment 파손 가능성을 높이는 모든 hazard 파손 발생에 의한 가능한 모든 impact risk 를 감소시키는 최적의 조치 결정 .

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매설배관의 파손 및 위험성 평가

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  1. 매설배관의 파손 및 위험성 평가 중앙대학교 윤 기 봉

  2. IAP (Integrity Assessment Program) • Failure probability 예측 : impractical • Relative risk assessment : index-based methodology • pipeline risk assessment • 파손 가능성을 높이는 모든 hazard • 파손 발생에 의한 가능한 모든 impact • risk를 감소시키는 최적의 조치 결정. • Normalize 또는 scaled하여 failure probability 평가 • 각 업체의 데이터, 일반적데이터, 통계적접근법 • KOGAS 도입 검토중 (Bass-Trigon Software)

  3. Integrity Assessment Program (IAP) Overview

  4. Total Risk (0 to 100) Risk of Failure (ROF) (0 to 10) Consequence of Failure (COF) (0 to 10) X 35% External Corrosion (0 to 10) 5% Internal Corrosion (0 to 10) 30% Third Party (0 to 10) 15% Design/ Materials (0 to 10) 10% Ground Movement (0 to 10) 5% Proced. & Operations (0 to 10) 0% SCC (0 to 10) 30% Impact on Environment (0 to 10) 30% Impact on Business (0 to 10) 40% Impact on Population (0 to 10) Integrity Assessment Algorithm

  5. ROF sub-categories • Environmental factor : 각 failure category에 영향을 주는 환경조건 • Design Factor : 각 failure category에 영향을 주는 설계조건 • Integrity Monitoring Factor : 주어진 environment에서 design 등을 monitor하는 방법 • Rehabilitation Factor : risk를 감소시키는 activity • COF sub-categories • Sensitivity Factor : 파손시 주변에 미치는 영향의 sensitivity • Volume Factor : 파손시 방출되는 volume

  6. Integrity Assessment Algorithm - Likelihood

  7. Integrity Assessment Algorithm - Consequences Consequence of Failure (COF) Impact on Environment Impact on Business Impact on Population Sens. Volume Water Crossings Initial Volume Loss Business Impact Initial Volume Loss Class Location Initial Volume Loss Sensitive Areas Stabil. Loss System Redund. Stabil. Loss Encroach- ments Stabil. Loss Property Damages Product Type Number of Customers Product Type Crossings Product Type Crossings Dispersion Potential Hours Out of Service Dispersion Potential Dispersion Potential Soil Type

  8. ROF중 External Corrosion Failure 평가예

  9. High, Low, Average ROF Graph

  10. Distance in Miles 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Section of Pipe Does not Meet Criteria - Factor scores are calculated for every ten miles. - The user defines the scoring, benchmarks and the variables to be used in the program and the size of the segment or section. COF중 Impact on Environment의 평가예

  11. Relative Benefit/Cost Analysis

  12. Quantitative Benefit/Cost Analysis

  13. Summary of Benefit/Cost Analyses

  14. Manufacturing Process

  15. SCORING 시스템 Thomas 모델 KGS 권고 안전성 평가 절차 산업체 이력자료 길이, 직경, 두께, 용접 이 력 자 료 누 출 원 인 누 출 방 지 대 책 부 식 제3공사 용접/시험 설 계 운전/보수 배관 SCORE 값 누출빈도

  16. 주요 외부요인과 그 세부항목들

  17. 외부요인의 가중치 Scoring 예

  18. 배관관리 대책(부식 항목) 수립의 예

  19. 요 약 • KOGAS 도입 검토중인 IAP • KGS 권고안 도시가스 지하배관에 대한 안전성 평가 • Algorithm Scrubbing Team • RBI를 통한 RBMS를 GSMS 체계하에 도입

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