Green Economy Policy Framework and Manufacturing in South Africa

1. Green Economy Policy Framework and Manufacturing in South Africa Gaylor Montmasson-Clair Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) Workshop for South African Trade Unions on Green and Decent Jobs Parktonian Hotel, Johannesburg, South Africa 20 November 2012

2. Outline • Introduction • Green economy framework in South Africa • Policy mandate • Institutional structure • Legal and policy overview • Green economy and manufacturing in South Africa • Potential employment • Main threats • Main opportunities • Conclusion

3. Introduction • South Africa remains faced with the triple developmental challenge of unemployment, poverty and inequality • In addition, the country’s current economic growth model is heavily resource and energy-intensive, aggravating pressures on the environment and the threat of climate change • Includes manufacturing industries (12.6% of GDP, 12.7 of employment) which are heavily represented in the EIUG • The transition to a green economy as a ground-breaking way forward: South Africa is in a unique position to exploit the emergence of a green economy in the world • Both constitutes a threat and a opportunity for manufacturing

4. Green economy framework in South Africa: Policy mandate • Since 1994, South Africa has achieved far-reaching political, economic and social changes, and has shown an increasing commitment to sustainable development: • Own national framework for a shift to a green economy (starting with the 1996 Constitution) • Party to both the Kyoto Protocol and the UNFCCC (+commitments under the Cancun Agreement) • Party to many international conventions and agreements on biodiversity and pollution issues

5. Green economy framework in South Africa: Institutional structure • South Africa’s institutional arrangements with respect to the green economy reflect the challenges faced internationally of complex interconnections between a maze of institutions: • NSSD is the responsibility of the DEA but the NPC, a department of sustainable development in all but name, resides in the Presidency (it however has advisory powers only) • EDD includes the green economy under its formulation of a NGP, but only has direct control over the two main state-run DFIs: the DBSA and the IDC

6. Green economy framework in South Africa: Institutional structure (2) • Support for green industry falls under the dti, but the dti has to rely on other departments to implement measures aimed at green industries: • NT: environmental fiscal reform • DEA: setting of environmental standards (e.g. for pollution or emissions) • DoE: issues relating to fossil fuels and renewable energy • DWA: issues relating to water • DST: technology policy and R&D • South Africa has institutionalised social dialogue, through NEDLAC: all constituents have recognised the importance of, and are willing to participate in, managing the transition to a green economy, but they defend different priorities: • Business: potential cost and effort involved in complying with new regulations and taxes • Trade unions: poverty reduction and employment quantity (protection of existing jobs and job creation) and quality (wages and working conditions)

7. Green economy framework in South Africa: Legal and policy overview Nine key texts, complemented by sectoral, local and time-specific policies, as well as a M&E system

8. The green economy framework in South Africa: Legal and policy overview (2) • Very large number of policies/strategies in place with respect to the green economy • Policies were often developed from the bottom up, i.e. a more holistic document was informed by one (or several) dealing with a more specialised aspect • For example, the NSSD and the NDP were both developed after the electricity, industrial and economic plans which would be informed by it • The major challenge lies in coherence among multiple policies and coordination among the various departments and other government actors responsible for its implementation

9. Green economy and manufacturing: Employment potential • Government expectations: 300 000 additional green jobs by 2020 and 400 000 by 2030, including 80 000 in manufacturing • IPAP: “green and energy-saving industries” as a priority sector for job creation, with an initial focus on SWH • Now: six sub-sectors - wind and solar energy; biomass energy; clean and multi-energy stoves; water and energy-efficient appliances and materials; efficient motors, variable-speed drives, energy metering and control and electricity storage; and waste and waste water treatment and (energy and material) recovery • Employment potential in the formal sector of the green economy of around 462 0000 employment opportunities in the long term (2018-2025) • Manufacturing comprises only about 10% of the total number of jobs, while the bulk of jobs are associated with O&M services.

10. Green economy and manufacturing: Main threats • Energy and carbon intensive industries: Petroleum products (Sasol), chemicals (Afrox, AECI, Air Products SA) and plastics; Wood, pulp and paper (Mondi, Sappi), Cement (PPC) and glass, Food and beverages (SABMiller, PnP), Metal and metals products such as aluminium smelting (Rio Tinto Alcan), iron and steel (ArcelorMittal SA) Source: Carbon Disclosure Project Report (2010)

11. Green economy and manufacturing: Main threats (2) • Potential loss in international competitiveness • Carbon regulations and carbon pricing at the national level • Potential exists for a border tax adjustment to be placed on South Africa if an effective carbon pricing regime is not implemented nationally • Higher prices of electricity and inputs (oil, steel, aluminium, glass, rubber and plastics) • Strong regulatory response and the imposition of carbon pricing is likely to deter new investment, driving investments to less regulated environments or country characterised by a reliance on low carbon electricity • Reputational risks and food miles might increase investment and market access risks

12. Green economy and manufacturing: Main opportunities • Energy generation • Drawing on the automotive sector, support for large-scale wind power and CSP could provide a boost for domestic manufacturing • Gearboxes, steel frames and pylons, fibreglass forms, coatings, motors, and to a lesser extent, turbines blades and heliostats • Production of low carbon energy generation technologies • Fuel cells(chemicals, PGMs) • Thin-film solar photovoltaic power (UJ + CEF + NEF + Sasol) • Biomass-based power generation if wood chips and pulp and paper are included in the REFIT

13. Green economy and manufacturing: Main opportunities (2) • Emissions and pollution mitigation • Automotive and linked equipment • development of the Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) industry, including components and domestic bus manufacture linked to improved public transport (BRT) • development of electric vehicles (Optimal Energy) • Metals and Metal Products • the manufacturing of catalytic converters absorbs about 50% of platinum mining • Copper (development of equipment from electrical motors to power cables and transformers) and aluminium (recycling effort and applications in vehicle manufacture) might also benefit

14. Green economy and manufacturing: Main opportunities (3) • Energy and resources efficiency • Domestic SWH manufacture remains an important potential economic opportunity in the country, linked to a wider industry of retailers and installers, and the promotion of employment for semi-skilled workers • Substantial potential to benefit from the promotion of energy efficient technologies • efficient pumps, motors, turbines, variable speed drives and lighting, as well as a range of efficient ICTs and energy control equipment • efficient heating and cooling systems and the insulation industry

15. Conclusion • The existing green economy framework needs to be streamlined and unpacked to ensure job creation • Main threats to manufacturing can be mitigated: • Proactive screening and risk management to retain international competitiveness • Investing in efficient technologies and developing skills to support value addition and diversification • Implementing meaningful national regulations • Significant employment potential in the country • But government support is critical to foster investment and demand (procurement) and address the skill shortage (education and (re)training)

16. Thank you for your attention! Gaylor Montmasson-Clair Economist Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) Pretoria, South Africa gaylor@tips.org.za +27 12 433 9340 / +27 71 31 99 504