Why nuclear abolition is a humanitarian imperative

1. Why nuclear abolition is a humanitarian imperative Rebecca E. Johnson Ph.D Vice Chair, International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons – ICAN IPU, Bern, 17 October 2011

2. Nuclear threats STILL affect us all

3. Hiroshima 1945

4. Nagasaki 1945

5. TODAYOver 22,000 weapons + 9 nuclear-armed states PLUS proliferation incentives, drivers + nuclear terrorism risks Peak arsenals (1986) • 15,000 Mt • 70,000 weapons Current arsenals 2011 • 2,300 Mt • 22,400 weapons

6. Contradictions between words and action, e.g. “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons” “If we believe that the spread of nuclear weapons is inevitable, then in some way we are admitting to ourselves that the use of nuclear weapons is inevitable” Pres. Obama, Prague 2009 2010: New START gets ratified “As long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies.” Pres. Obama Prague 2009 2010: US nuclear labs get $85 bn

7. What’s in the way? • Nuclear weapons are perceived by certain governments and opinion-formers to have high value (deterrence, security, status, strategic stability) • ‘Not in my lifetime’ – nice ‘vision’ but won’t happen (dismissed as impractical and unrealistic) • Military-industrial and nuclear interests in nuclear-armed states • Voodoo beliefs in deterrence as the devil we know (despite lack of evidence and proof) • Outdated worldview, inadequate formal machinery in UN system, and macho, linear thinking

8. NPT 2010 Review Conference • “...all States need to make special efforts to establish the necessary framework toachieve and maintain a world without nuclear weapons.”

9. To achieve genuine security and eliminate nuclear dangers, must move beyond arms control and business as usual “The [NPT 2010] Conference expresses its deep concern at the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons....”

10. What are these catastrophic humanitarian consequences? Costs + opportunity costs of nuclear dependency now, and if NW are used: • abrupt climate disruption and cooling • radiation contamination and sickness • agricultural contamination and collapse • regional (probably global) famine THE LIVING WOULD ENVY THE DEAD

11. Effects of nuclear explosions • Blast • direct • Indirect • Heat/flash • Burns, blindness • fires • Radiation • Initial • Direct • Induction of radioactivity • Fallout • Local (mostly external) • Intermediate (mostly external) • Global (mostly internal) • Electromagnetic pulse • communication breakdown • Environmental effects • on Biota (living things) • on Climate • Complex synergistic effects > e.g. blast lethal area of 150 km2 would have fire conflagration area 350 km2 > Radiatio would weaken immune systems > Persistent high mortality years later, genetic effects harming future generations

12. Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev commented in an interview in 1994 that when he received control over the Soviet nuclear arsenal: “Perhaps there was an emotional side to it…. I knew the report on ‘nuclear winter’... Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation.”

13. New research on environmental and climate effects of nuclear explosions

14. RESEARCH ON LIMITED NUCLEAR USE Evaluated effects of 100 ‘small’ nuclear explosions (15 kt, Hiroshima size) on urban centres: • This is just 0.4% of nuclear weapons and 0.07% of explosive yield in current arsenals • Up to 17 million immediate deaths • Multiple small nuclear warheads produce FAR MORE radioactive debris, smoke and deaths per kt than high yield weapons • Lofting, circulation and persistence of smoke/dust clouds for ~ 10 years • Substantial and long lasting climatic effects likely to cause widespread global famine

15. Limited regional nuclear war with low yield weapons: 1 billion dead from starvation alone? International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

16. Epidemic Disease • Cholera, other diarrheal disease • Plague • Malaria • Typhus International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

17. Desperation, Conflict and Further wars • Food riots • Disruption of trade • Hoarding • Intra-state ‘civil’ wars • Wars between nations… International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

18. …further use of nuclear weapons? International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

20. "The Berlin Wall fell. The Soviet Union crumbled. The Cold War ended. Yet 20 years later, we continue to spend over $50 billion a year on the U.S. nuclear arsenal. This makes no sense. These funds are a drain on our budget and a disservice to the next generation of Americans. We are robbing the future to pay for the unneeded weapons of the past.” US Senator Ed Markey, Oct 11, 2011

21. NPT 2010 “.... and reaffirms the need for all States at all times to comply with applicable international law, including international humanitarian law.” Are there any real uses of nuclear weapons that would NOT violate international law and cause inhumane, unimaginable suffering?

22. Deterrence – 20th century voodoo The insupportable promise of deterrence is what keeps nuclear forces going.... Is it a myth or a deliberate political lie to justify having nuclear weapons because they are not supposed to be used for killing, but for deterring other potential killers. Where is the evidence? Reliance on nuclear weapons for deterrence is “becoming increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective.” Kissinger, Shultz, Perry and Nunn, Jan 2007 WSJ

23. NEW THINKINGDisarmament is achievable when pursued as Humanitarian and Security Action • Raise awareness of humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons and inhumane nature of nuclear policies • Reinforce International Humanitarian Law • Revive and strengthen tools for national and regional security without nuclear deterrence • Halt fissile materials production and nuclear modernization programmes and require deep cuts in all arsenals • implement and embed existing agreements • Lay groundwork for a stronger treaty-based nuclear abolition regime

24. A new security mindset that puts people before weapons • Human security must take precedence over military notions of security • Prioritize real and global security above national state ‘defences’ • Nuclear weapons make us INSECURE and VULNERABLE • They waste and divert resources from tackling real problems e.g. transboundary threats, environmental/climate, health/pandemics, water, food shortages, economic chaos

25. Build partnerships and develop an effective, flexible and determined process to get comprehensive negotiations underway to ban and eliminate nuclear weapons • With governments and elected representatives – parliamentarians and city mayors and councillors – at all levels (nationally, regionally, internationally) • With other civil society actors, organizations, professionals and activists • Humanitarian, environmental and health protectors e.g. ICRC, WHO, IPCC as well as security and disarmament advocates

26. Stigmatizing weapons as inhumane paves the way for treaties banning them Examples from other weapons: • asphyxiating chemicals • 1925 Geneva Protocol (use)1993 CWC (all aspects) • biological and toxin weapons • 1925 Geneva Protocol (use)1972 BTWC • antipersonnel landmines • 1997 Mine Ban Convention (use, stockpiling, production and transfer...) • cluster munitions • 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM prohibits use, production, stockpiling and transfer...)

27. NON-NUCLEAR COUNTRIES – and PARLIAMENTARIANS – need to ACT NOW • Disarmament won’t happen if left up to the nuclear-armed states • Global and environmental security is YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TOO • RAISE AWARENESS about the DANGERS while also promoting and explaining practical SOLUTIONS • EXPLAIN the HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES – for your cities and countries • STRENGTHEN and MOBILIZE local, national, regional, transnational, global pressure to prevent nuclear use and terrorism and ban all nuclear weapons

28. From vision to treaty Many ways to raise awareness e.g. • UN Secretary-General’s 5 point disarmament plan • International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (iCAN) • ICRC, IPU, UN resolutions... • consider and promote roads to nuclear abolition, including model nuclear weapon convention (NWC) from NGOs, Global Zero work among ‘great and good’, Mayors for Peace 20:20 vision, Reykjavik Revisited etc

29. NEED TO DELEGITIMIZE AND DEVALUE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DETERRENCE Show/Convince that the weapons are: • inhumane and useless • indiscriminate and disproportionate • unuseable except in failure We need to: • deconstruct deterrence, denuclearize alliances • recognize that it ever a nuclear weapon were used that would constitute a crime against humanity and war crime • universalize security assurances (positive and negative) and create all-nation obligations on non-use, aid and response to nuclear threats based on recognition that using NW is a crime against humanity • expose nuclear myths and dependencies to ridicule

30. Civil Society - iCAN Campaign Clear, inspiring, visible demands for a treaty banning nuclear weapons • Reaching and involving, networking and empowering, with information and strategies - ‘face’ and voice to amplify and focus calls for a nuclear ban and treaty • Partnership with progressive governments • Central message, millions of carriers, social and traditional media • Engaging new generations and constituencies and re-engaging the disheartened

31. TO CONCLUDENuclear disarmament is more necessary and urgent than ever – and more achievable! • NW cause unacceptable harm and humanitarian disaster with catastrophic regional and global consequences. • Nuclear weapons use needs to be recognized and treated as a crime against humanity and war crime, as is the use of chemical and biological weapons. This would create strong disincentives and have impact on doctrines and ambitions

32. urgent to prevent nuclear weapons being used and to reduce risk of accidents

33. Best way is to ban and eliminate nuclear weapons

34. >Crucial task is to discredit and delegitimize nuclear weapons and their justifications, including deterrence, status and other drivers of proliferation

35. >A comprehensive nuclear abolition treaty is within reach, including effective barriers and verification, building on past experience, CWC, CTBT, IAEA...

36. Time to ban nuclear weapons “Weapons of mass destruction cannot be uninvented. But they can be outlawed, as biological and chemical weapons have been, and their use made unthinkable. Compliance, verification and enforcement rules can, with the requisite will, be effectively applied. And with that will, even the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons is not beyond the world’s reach.” Weapons of Terror, Report of the WMD Commission, June 2006

37. Will this be the future? Trident submarine near Faslane, Scotland

38. we CAN eliminate nuclear weapons www.icanw.org